SOUTHERN MISS at SOUTH CAROLINA...USM is a solid 15-8 vs. the line away from Hattiesburg since ‘07. Note, however, that South Carolina HC Steve Spurrier has won and covered openers the past two seasons and did cover all 3 on line vs. non-SEC foes in reg. season LY, but he is a subpar 3-6 laying 7 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to USM, based on recent trends.
MARSHALL at OHIO STATE...Doc Holliday debut as Marshall HC. Under Mark Snyder, the Thurndering Herd was only 4-10 vs. line as DD visiting dog from ‘05-09. Marshall has also been a decidedly subpar 1-8 vs. the line on the road vs. non-CUSA foes since ‘06. Meanwhile, Ohio State's Jim Tressel is 41-21 vs. the number overall since ‘05, but his numebrs are not quite as compelling laying heavy lumber. as the Buckeyes are only 8-9 laying DDs at the Big Horseshoe since ‘07. Tressel also just 5-5 laying 20 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA STATE...Interest intersectional pattern involving Northern Illinois, which has covered 7 straight as a regular season visitor vs. non-MAC foes. Although the Huskies’ overall spread mark away from home is nothing special the past few yeaers (only 9-14 since ‘07). Iowa State's Paul Rhoads recorded a solid 8-4 mark vs. the line in first season at Cyclone HC last year, including 4-1 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to NIU, based on team trends.
PITTSBURGH at UTAH...Pitt has posted some positive numbers lately on the road and as a dog for HC Dave Wannstedt, as the Panthers are 9-4 as a dog since ‘07 and 7-3 as a visiting dog that span. Overall, Wannstedt's Pitt is 12-6 overall vs. the spread as a visitor since ‘07. Note that Utah is just 1-4 vs. the line in openers since HC Kyle Whittingham took over in 2005, and the Utes are just 2-5-1 vs. spread against non-MWC foes at Rice-Eccles Stadium since ‘05. Utah is also a modest 5-5 as Salt Lake City chalk the past two years. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at HAWAII...Lane Kiffin makes his debut as Southern Cal HC, and to this point we don't think he has said anything to infuritate Hawaii or Warrior HC Greg McMackin. Note that Hawaii was 0-3 getting DDs at Aloha Stadium LY, and dating back to the June Jones era, Warriors only 1-5 getting DDs in Honolulu since ‘05. The Warriors are also just 3-6 last nine vs. line hosting non-WAC foes. As for Kiffin, his Tennesse team was 2-1 vs. the line laying 20 points or more LY, but note that SC (under Pete Carroll) is just 1-5 its last 6 laying 20 or more away from Coliseum. The Trojans, however, have suffered most of their recent pointspread setbacks in Pac-10 play, as under the departed Carroll they were 9-2 vs. line in their 11 tries vs. non-conference foes. Tech edge-SC, based on team trends.
MINNESOTA at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Tread carefully here, as MTSU will be without suspended startign QB Dwight Dasher, who keyed the Blue Raider renaissance last season. That included MTSU covering its last 7 games in '09. In addition, the Blue Raiders are also 8-3 vs. the numebr their last 11 vs. non-Sun Belt foes. As for Minnesota, note the Golden Gophers have dropped 11 of their last 17 spread decisions since mid ‘08, and are just 3-8 vs. spread in non-conference play under HC Tim Brewster since ‘07. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UAB...The home team has won and covered emphatically the past two years in this series, with UAB winning big 56-29 in ‘09 after FAU scored a 49-34 win the previous year at Fort Lauderdale. Owl HC Howard Schenellenberger, however, has an enduring negative trend as a visitor vs. non-Sun Belt foes, dropping all three such spread decisions last season, and now 1-14 vs. the number his last 15 visiting non-Belt opposition. As for the Blazers, they're actually 4-1 in rare chalk role under HC Neil Callaway since ‘07, although he’s 0-1 laying DDs (no cover laying 11 vs. SMU LY). Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on Schnellenberger's extended woes vs. non-Belt foes on road.
ARIZONA at TOLEDO...Arizona HC Mike Stoops is only 7-12 vs. line as visitor and 2-5 as visiting chalk since ‘07. Stoops also 0-4 vs. line as non-conference visitor since ‘06, and the Cats are just 1-6 against points in that role since ‘02. Arizona also hasn’t covered laying 7 or more on road since a 1998 game at San Diego State.! Meanwhile, Toledo is only 9-16 as dog since ‘07, although not-so- bad 5-4 in that role at the Glass Bowl the past three years. But the Rockets are 7-1 vs. the line at the Glass Bowl vs. non-conference opposition since ‘01 (note that the Ohio State loss was played at Cleveland LY). Tech edge-Toledo, based on team trends.
