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Arizona at Toledo
September 2, 2010
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards has a pay-if-it-wins-only selection for tonight's game and has additional plays for Saturday in this pick pack!
A rizona head coach Mike Stoops went into the 2008 campaign on the hot seat. In his first five years of a major rebuilding project, the Wildcats had yet to taste a bowl bid.
Fast forward to the present and Stoops has job security after taking his program to back-to-back bowl games. Not only that, but he has his best chance to send Arizona to the Rose Bowl for the first time in school history. That’s right, the Wildcats are the only Pac-10 program that’s never been to Pasadena.
With Oregon’s problems at the quarterback position and USC out of the Rose Bowl mix, there’s no doubt that the Pac-10 is wide open and right there for the taking.
Stoops and Co. open the 2010 campaign on the road Friday night at The Glass Bowl, facing Toledo from out of the Mid-American Conference. As of early Thursday morning, most books had Arizona favored by 16 with a total of 60 or 60 ½. Not all betting shops are offering money-line prices, but the ones that are have the Rockets available to win outright for a plus-600 return (risk $100 to win $600).
Arizona returns eight starters on offense and four on defense. The Wildcats finished 8-5 straight up and 6-5-1 against the spread in 2009, but they were clubbed 33-0 by Nebraska at the Holiday Bowl.
Junior quarterback Nick Foles, a transfer from Michigan St., turned out to be a serious find as the replacement for Arizona’s all-time leading passer, Willie Tuitama. Foles posted a 19/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first 10 starts of his career.
Foles is one of eight starters returning on offense, including just about all of his skill players with the exception of WR Delashaun Dean, who has transferred after making 42 catches in 2009. But Juron Criner (45 receptions for 582 yards and nine TDs) and David Roberts (43 catches) are back, in addition to William ‘Bug’ Wright (23 catches).
The backfield has plenty of experience as well. Nic Grigsby will be the featured back after he missed five games last year with an injury. Grigsby was averaging 7.2 yards per carry before getting banged up in ’09. In 21 career starts, he has netted 1,857 rushing yards. Keola Antolin will get his share of touches behind Grigsby, too. Antolin rushed for more than 600 yards and had four TDs last season.
If Stoops has a concern about this team, it’s on the defensive side of the ball. However, we should note that defense is his area of coaching expertise. But this until returns just four starters and will be without eight of its 11 leading tacklers from last year.
Tim Beckman’s first team at Toledo went 5-7 both SU and ATS, losing four of their last five games both SU and ATS. As a home underdog on Beckman’s watch, the Rockets twice won outright against Colorado and Northern Illinois.
Toledo bring back six starters on each side of the ball. QB Aaron Opelt has run out of eligibility and sophomore Austin Dantin beat out Alex Pettee for the starting job in August.
Dantin made three starts as a true freshman, completing 79-of-119 attempts (66.4%) for 962 yards with four touchdown passes and four interceptions. He is a product of Tallahassee Leon High School, the same program that produced former NFL players like Tony Lomack, Brad Culpepper, Terry Mickens, Clifford Charlton and Tamarick Vanover.
Dantin might have the best WR in the MAC in Eric Page, a sophomore who had more receptions and receiving yards that any other freshman wideout last season. Page hauled in 82 receptions for 1,159 yards and seven touchdowns.
Morgan Williams will get the bulk of the work on the ground for Toledo. Williams was a third-team All-MAC selection as a redshirt freshman in ’08, rushing for more than 1,000 yards and averaging 6.0 YPC. However, injuries slowed him down last year when he got just a pair of starts and 74 carries. Williams is hoping to return to the form he showed in ’08.
The ‘under’ cashed at a 6-1 clip for Arizona in its last seven of games of last season.
Arizona has only been a road favorite seven times in Stoops’ six previous years on the job. The Wildcats are 2-4-1 ATS in those seven situations.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--After this season-opening road game at Toledo, Arizona won’t go on the road again until an Oct. 16 trip to Washington St. The Wildcats have four straight home games against The Citadel, Iowa, California and Oregon St., not to mention an open date on Oct. 2.
--Toledo cornerback Daxton Swanson enjoyed an excellent freshman year last season, making 31 tackles and leading the team in passes broken up with seven. However, after off-season shoulder surgery, Swanson didn’t report to training camp and will apparently transfer to another school.
--Toledo has thrived when hosting BCS schools since 2001. In fact, the Rockets have won five of six games outright with the lone loss coming to Purdue in 2007. They demolished Colorado by a 54-38 count on ESPN in a Friday game last year that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. They also knocked off Kansas in double overtime back in ’06. I remember because I was on the Jayhawks plus 4 ½, only to suffer a chafe loss after a pair of extra sessions.
--UNC finally announced the suspensions of 12 players, including seven starters, for Saturday night's showdown against LSU at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. Many books had re-posted the number yesterday with the Tigers favored by 6 1/2 and a total of 42. Following the announcement Friday morning, most books adjusted to 7 1/2 with the total at eight 43 1/2 or 44.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
For daily sports gambling analysis, follow Brian Edwards on twitter at Vegasbedwards.
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