Everyone has had plenty of time to look over every last college football game that Saturday has to offer in the opening week. Yet there are still games out there that will have plenty of us scratching our heads when looking at the numbers. That’s why we’re going to be looking at some of those games from week to week that deserves a closer look by all of us.
So which contests make up the games that make us do a double take? As far as I’m concerned, matchups that see questionable jumps in the spread from when they were originally posted to where they currently sit at the time of writing this piece. The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay has shown us what games have moved the most at his sportsbook.
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(-3) |
(-5.5) |
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(-40) |
(-37) |
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(-31) |
(-34) |
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(-1.5) |
(-2.5) |
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(-18.5) |
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Some of those moves make sense, at first blush. The Wildcats getting love in Nashville is perfectly understandable give that Vandy’s Robbie Caldwell has been head coach for less than two months when the game kicks off. Alabama’s minor shrinkage no doubt comes from Mark Ingram not being available to play. Oklahoma is widely expected to blow out the Aggies and the same goes for Wisconsin over UNLV.
Cincinnati heading out west to face Fresno State, however, is what makes me do a double take. The Bearcats were posted as 1 ½-point road favorites when the Hilton initially posted this line. Yet Pat Hill’s team will most likely be coming into this affair as a 2 ½-point home “chalk.”
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Chip Chirimbes believes that change in the ranks is why the line is set as such. “Ryan Matthews may not still be at Fresno State, but they still have eight starters coming back on offense. Plus, Cincy is bringing Butch Jones into take over for Brian Kelly. It’s hard to think that Butch Jones has a coaching advantage over the Bulldogs’ Pat Hill.”
While Matthews was won of the best running backs in college last season, he is far from irreplaceable. Take into account that he rushed for 1,808 yards and had 122 receiving yards. Fresno State gained a total of 5,597 yards on the attack in 2009.
Sportsbook.com’s Dave Staley puts the Bulldogs into more perspective, where they are posted as three-point home faves. “(There are) 15 starters returning for Fresno State from a team that went 8-5 last year. Even though Ryan Matthews is now with the Chargers, there is still plenty of firepower on the offense.”
The ‘Dogs have four of their five offensive linemen coming back this year to protect senior quarterback Ryan Colburn. What is a big issue for Fresno State is how he will handle being the main man of the attack. Colburn was never asked to really carry the team at any point last season, reaching above 30 pass attempts just three times. The plus side for him is that he learned to make better decisions, evidenced by the fact Colburn had six interceptions in the first three games of the year and five picks the rest of the way.
Cincinnati holds the edge on the quarterback area with Zach Collaros taking over as a full-time starter. Collaros was called into duty on more than one occasion for Tony Pike in ’09. He completed 75 percent of his passes for 1,434 yards with 10 touchdowns and two picks. Collaros will also have three starters back on the o-line. And if that wasn’t enough, Armon Binns and D.J. Woods are back to provide reliable receiving targets.
Something else that gamblers should consider is how these teams have fared in meaningful games. Collaros guided the Bearcats to strong wins last season over Connecticut and West Virginia in consecutive weeks. You know the last two wins that the Bulldogs have had over BCS schools? Last year against Illinois and a 2007 triumph over Kansas State – two teams that were less than garbage at the time. Yet Fresno State are favored in this game.
“I’m a little surprised that only 29% of the bettors are on the Bearcats in this game,” says Dave Staley. I’m surprised, too.
Cowboys Stadium showcases another game that offers up some interesting discussion as Oregon State takes on the Horned Frogs.
The Beavers fell just short of making the Rose Bowl and ended up getting blown out by BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Now they find themselves posted as 13 ½-point pups in the season opener.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Scott Pritchard has taken notice of this number as well. “I like the dog plus the points as Oregon State will be very solid up front on the offensive line.” That’s an important point considering that OSU has four starters back on an o-line that 34th nationally in total offense (410.6 YPG). What that means is Jacquizz Rodgers will get plenty of openings in the Horned Frogs’ defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Beavers are just as strong with eight starters back, four of which do their business in the trenches. This is a Top 50 defensive unit from a year ago. And they were 25th against the run (114.4).
That run defense will be important on Saturday night as it takes on a TCU offense that was fifth pounding the rock with 239.5 rushing YPG. That will help gamblers wanting to take the Horned Frogs as double-digit favorites against a BCS conference foe since they’re 3-0 SU and ATS in that spot.
Yet Pritchard isn’t worried about that considering the dog is quality and getting a lot of points. “I lean on the dog especially if you can catch a 14. It’s very important to shop and find a 14 on this game. Sports betting is as much about finding good numbers as it is about having the right side.”
Almost important as finding a game that has a line you can exploit is locating games that you should avoid at all costs. There’s just such a contest going on in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State is playing host to Washington State.
The Cowboys were initially opened up as 13-point home favorites, but has been pushed up 15 ½ as of Sept. 1. So why was this line set to short to begin with given the disparity between the teams?
“Oklahoma State is in a rebuilding mode and they're switching to a new offense,” says expert handicapper Dave Cokin. “Only eight returning starters and the depth chart on defense has already lost several players counted on to be valuable reserves.”
The most significant moves for the Cowpokes in this game is Brandon Weeden taking over for Zac Robinson under center. He won’t have Dez Bryant to throw to or anyone of that caliber this year on an attack that has three returning starters, which will be switching to a new scheme.
Meanwhile, there is only direction is up for Washington State after ranking in the basement of every important statistical category. 17 starters come back from that team which went 1-11 a year ago. Should that familiarity of players help Wazzu improve? Sure, but Cokin sums up this game best: “This is not a playable game for me, as I'm very reluctant to lay anything significant with rebuilding Cowboys and Wazzou will have to prove to me that they can simply hang in.”
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
