With apologies to friend and fellow handicapper Stan Lisowski, who has made "Off The Top Of My Head" a catch phrase, this is a list of my lines for the bowl games that I made as soon as the matchups came out, off the top of my head, with zero research whatsoever. Some of them are pretty close, others way off, and the ones that are way off certainly are high on my radar as far as potential bowl plays. The following is a list of the bowl, my early line, and then the actual line. They say first impressions are the most important, so let's track these and see what happens! Next year try this exercise yourself. It is not only fun but can be very profitable!
Bowl Line Comparison Chart
Bowl
My Line
Actual Line
New Mexico
BYU -7
BYU -11.5
Humanitarian
Fresno -3
Northern Illinois -1
New Orleans
Pick
Troy -1
St Petersburg
S Miss -5
Louisville -3
Las Vegas
Boise -6
Boise -17
Poinsettia
SDSU -4
No Line
Hawaii
Hawaii -7
Hawaii -11
Little Caesars
Toledo -3
Toledo -1.5
Independence
Ga Tech -3
Air Force -3
Champ Sports
Pick
West Virginia -3
Insight
Iowa -3
Missouri -1
Eagle Bank
Maryland -4
Maryland -6
Texas
Baylor -1
Baylor -1.5
Alamo
Okie St -6
Okie St -6
Armed Forces
SMU -7
No Line
Pinstripe
K-State -4
K-State -1
Music City
UNC -3
UNC -2.5
Holiday
Neb -7
Neb -14
Car Care
Clemson -4
Clemson -4.5
Sun
Miami -6
Miami -3
Liberty
Georgia -6
Georgia -6.5
Chi Fil A
SC -4
SC -3
Ticket City
T-Tech -1
T-Tech -9.5
Outback
Pick
Florida -7
Capital One
'Bama -7
'Bama -10
Gator
Miss St. -3
Miss St. -5.5
Rose
Wisc -3
TCU -3
Fiesta
Oklahoma -10
Oklahoma -17
Orange
Stanford -4
Stanford -3
Sugar
Ohio St -6
Ohio St -4
GMAC
Pick
Miami, Oh -1.5
Cotton
LSU -3
LSU -1.5
Birmingham
Pitt -4
No Line
Fight Hunger
Nevada -6
Nevada -9.5
Championship
Auburn -3
Auburn -3
Obviously, my initial line differs greatly in some cases, with Northwestern and Texas Tech being one of the most notable differences, an eight and a half point differential from the actual spread as compared to what I thought it would be. NWU quarterback Persa will have a month of bowl practice to get ready, and his talent, not nerves, will show through in that game. I think the Wildcats +9 is absolutely stealing, and if you only get one thing out of this article, make that nugget be NWU in the Ticket City Bowl, and get yourself a Money Line ticket to cash when this one is done!
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I am also very surprised that Southern Miss is getting points from Louisville, as I had USM -5. That is another very live dog in this view. Others to consider, based soley on the line variances, are Fresno State, Utah (Really? +17?). Boise State is good, but this Utah team WAS #6 in the BCS just a month ago, and they NEVER lose bowl games, line is just to high, and might be 14 by game time, so get it now if you like the Utes), Georgia Tech, Iowa, Washington and Wisconsin.
Numerically Penn State would fit as well against Florida in the Outback Bowl, but with the Urban Meyer retirement, the raw data is skewed there, so will have to wait until closer to gametime to make a call there.
I have had back-to-back winning bowl seasons and look to make it three in a row this year. Check my selections out every day or sign up for the Bowl Package; you will be glad you did!
