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Bowl Analysis

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With apologies to friend and fellow handicapper Stan Lisowski, who has made "Off The Top Of My Head" a catch phrase, this is a list of my lines for the bowl games that I made as soon as the matchups came out, off the top of my head, with zero research whatsoever. Some of them are pretty close, others way off, and the ones that are way off certainly are high on my radar as far as potential bowl plays. The following is a list of the bowl, my early line, and then the actual line. They say first impressions are the most important, so let's track these and see what happens! Next year try this exercise yourself. It is not only fun but can be very profitable!

Bowl Line Comparison Chart
Bowl My Line Actual Line
New Mexico BYU -7 BYU -11.5
Humanitarian Fresno -3 Northern Illinois -1
New Orleans Pick Troy -1
St Petersburg S Miss -5 Louisville -3
Las Vegas Boise -6 Boise -17
Poinsettia SDSU -4 No Line
Hawaii Hawaii -7 Hawaii -11
Little Caesars Toledo -3 Toledo -1.5
Independence Ga Tech -3 Air Force -3
Champ Sports Pick West Virginia -3
Insight Iowa -3 Missouri -1
Eagle Bank Maryland -4 Maryland -6
Texas Baylor -1 Baylor -1.5
Alamo Okie St -6 Okie St -6
Armed Forces SMU -7 No Line
Pinstripe K-State -4 K-State -1
Music City UNC -3 UNC -2.5
Holiday Neb -7 Neb -14
Car Care Clemson -4 Clemson -4.5
Sun Miami -6 Miami -3
Liberty Georgia -6 Georgia -6.5
Chi Fil A SC -4 SC -3
Ticket City T-Tech -1 T-Tech -9.5
Outback Pick Florida -7
Capital One 'Bama -7 'Bama -10
Gator Miss St. -3 Miss St. -5.5
Rose Wisc -3 TCU -3
Fiesta Oklahoma -10 Oklahoma -17
Orange Stanford -4 Stanford -3
Sugar Ohio St -6 Ohio St -4
GMAC Pick Miami, Oh -1.5
Cotton LSU -3 LSU -1.5
Birmingham Pitt -4 No Line
Fight Hunger Nevada -6 Nevada -9.5
Championship Auburn -3 Auburn -3

Obviously, my initial line differs greatly in some cases, with Northwestern and Texas Tech being one of the most notable differences, an eight and a half point differential from the actual spread as compared to what I thought it would be. NWU quarterback Persa will have a month of bowl practice to get ready, and his talent, not nerves, will show through in that game. I think the Wildcats +9 is absolutely stealing, and if you only get one thing out of this article, make that nugget be NWU in the Ticket City Bowl, and get yourself a Money Line ticket to cash when this one is done!

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I am also very surprised that Southern Miss is getting points from Louisville, as I had USM -5. That is another very live dog in this view. Others to consider, based soley on the line variances, are Fresno State, Utah (Really? +17?). Boise State is good, but this Utah team WAS #6 in the BCS just a month ago, and they NEVER lose bowl games, line is just to high, and might be 14 by game time, so get it now if you like the Utes), Georgia Tech, Iowa, Washington and Wisconsin.

Numerically Penn State would fit as well against Florida in the Outback Bowl, but with the Urban Meyer retirement, the raw data is skewed there, so will have to wait until closer to gametime to make a call there.

I have had back-to-back winning bowl seasons and look to make it three in a row this year. Check my selections out every day or sign up for the Bowl Package; you will be glad you did!
 
The Bowls Are Back in Town…Enjoy!

  
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