Fade Alert - UAB
September 10, 2012
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence dominated Week 2 of the college football season with a 6-1 record (86%). Don't miss out on winners for the rest of the regular season. Click to win!
Rest vs. Rust
In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season. An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent's game film in greater detail.
However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.
RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON-OPENING LOSS TEND TO STRUGGLE
A week of rest right out of the box in a new season, however, can either help or hinder a team depending on their previous effort and venue. In college football, teams in Game Two, playing off a LOSS with a week of rest, are just 58-73 ATS (44%), including 29-44 ATS (40%) when on the road.
This week we find Boise State, Navy (away), Southern Mississippi and UAB (away) in this not-so-desirable role:
Navy at Penn State
UAB at South Carolina
East Carolina at Southern Mississippi
Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State
When these same traveling teams are off a loss of 13 or less points and are engaged in a non-conference contest they dip to 4-21 ATS (16%). That's especially bad news for the Blazers this week.
UAB at South Carolina
RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON OPENING WIN TEND TO PERFORM WELL
On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game Two, playing off a WIN with a week of rest, are 121-86-4 ATS (58%), with Oregon State this role, next week.
When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 38-14 ATS (73%), including 19-4 (83%) both SU and ATS when playing away. Beware of the Beavers next week.
Oregon State at UCLA
That's this week's wake-up call. You know what to do...
5-2 Run, 10-5 G-Plays, +1,885 TY
11-5 L16, 34-12 Streak, +1,841 TY
3-0 Saturday, 7-1 L8, 12-3 L15
8-1 Win Streak, 14-5 L19 Totals
4-1 Picks, 13-3 G-Plays, +1,653 TY
18-6 L5 Saturdays, 59% +1,543 TY
14-3 Last 17 G-Play Streak
+2,757 NCAA FB Over/Unders TY
7-3 L10 Picks, 13-4 L17 G-Plays
39-14 L5 Saturdays, 48-24 Streak
19-9 L4 Saturdays, 30-16 L46 Run
8-4 Sat., 19-7 GPlays, +2,353 Totals
28-14 L6 Saturdays, 31-15 Streak
14-6 CFB Record L20 Picks
4-0 Saturday, 7-1 L8, +1,036 TY
4-2 Saturday, 11-4 G-Plays TY
11-4 L15 G-Plays, 17-9 L26 Picks
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