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Pac-12 Report - Week 4
September 21, 2012
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 4 from Joe Williams. Click to win!
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Oregon State was scheduled to have just two games to this point, but one of them was wiped out when Nicholls State, their opening game FCS opponent, could not make it from Louisiana thanks to Hurricane Isaac. So the Beavers have just one game, a big win over Wisconsin, under their belts, while UCLA has three. That could be looked at one of two ways. The Beavers are fresh and healthy, while the Bruins have some nicks, bumps and bruises. Or, the Bruins have valuable experience, while the Beavers are still prone to early-game mistakes. More importantly, the Beavers are just 1-8 ATS in the past nine matchups, and the Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their past five home games. The Beavers covered their last time out, but are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games after an ATS win in their previous game. All signs appear to point to UCLA, who is just a seven- or eight-point favorite depending on your book. Of course, you'll have to ignore that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in the series. |
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Do you have the nerve to take the over (o/u - 78.5)? Oregon can rack up points very quickly, but Arizona isn't Arkansas State, Tennessee Tech or even Fresno State. The Wildcats actually held a high-powered Oklahoma State offense to 38 points, which was pretty respectable. Oh yeah, they won that game, too, in convincing fashion. The Wildcats are certainly no slouch, although they come into the game as a three-touchdown dog. They have covered their past two games after a sluggish opener against Toledo. Will we get the Wildcats team that covered a double-digit number at home against OK State, or the one which failed to cover as a double-digit fave against Toledo? Well, believe it or not, Arizona actually has averaged more yards per game (604.7) than Oregon in the early going (596.3). I hope the scoreboard operator at Autzen Stadium pounds down a Monster and pops a Five-Hour Energy or two. |
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The Golden Bears enter this game after a near-miss in the Horseshoe last weekend, falling 35-28 at Ohio State. This week, they enter as an identical 17-point dog, although circumstances are certainly different. Ohio State was not nearly as salty as USC is going to be after suffering a setback at Stanford last week. The cover for Cal last weekend was their first in three games. Last season's game in the Coliseum resulted in a 30-9 Trojans victory. If that score came through, the Trojans would cover. That would be cause for bettors to have a parade, as USC is 0-3 ATS so far this season. Cal is 4-0 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games, although they are just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road contests. However, they did cover the number on the road last week, as mentioned. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference contests, but last week's setback is that loss. Looking at recent trends, one might lean slightly toward Cal. The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their past eight trips to SoCal, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, California is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The better play might be under, which has cashed seven times in the past eight games in the series. In addition, the under is 7-2 for Cal in their past nine Pac-12 games, and 9-3 in their past 12 overall. For USC, the under is 14-5-1 in their past 20 home games against team's with losing records. The under is 2-1 for USC so far this season, including last week. |
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Utah has been a difficult team to figure. They pounded Northern Colorado in their opener, as they should. Then, they not only lost at rival Utah State, but they also saw QB Jordan Wynn suffer a career-ending shoulder injury. In stepped senior Jon Hays, and the Utes pulled off a dramatic win against their other in-state rival, Brigham Young. The BYU game was the only one Utah has covered to date. AZ State is coming off a bitter road loss at Missouri, losing 24-20. For bettors, they likely pushed, or suffered a gut-wrenching loss with a +3.5 number. Picking AZ State this week might be a tough pill to swallow. However, they covered their first two games rather handily. Know this, though. The Sun Devils are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games. Utah isn't much better, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against teams with a winning record. |
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Colorado hasn't just been bad to start this season, they have been heinous. When they lost to Colorado State, it was excusable since that is an in-state rivalry game. However, they allowed FCS foe Sacramento State to roll into Boulder and win 30-28, and then they had Fresno State hang 69 points on them last weekend. The Buffs are looking for something, anything, to go right this weekend. They might have the only conference opponent they can handle, and even that is debatable. Head coach Mike Leach's offense finally appeared to awaken from their slumber last Friday at UNLV, scoring a 35-27 win. WaZu is 0-2-1 ATS through their first three games, so a 20-point number looks pretty tough to cover. However, Colorado is 0-3 ATS. The teams met on the Palouse last season, with State coming up with a 31-27 win. |
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