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Tech Trends - Week 5
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NFL Trends

Thursday, Sept. 20
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Tree has rolled last two years vs. Huskies (41-0 & 65-21) and has won and covered last four meetings. Tree 19-7 as chalk since 2010 (8-5 as road chalk). Sarkisian 0-3 as home dog past two years (at Husky Stadium). Stanford, based on team and series trends.
Friday, Sept. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at HAWAII at BYU...Cougs 9-2 vs. line last 11 on board after thriller at Boise last Thursday. Bronco Mendenhall 20-11 vs. line last 31 on board since late '09, 6-3 as DD chalk at Provo since 2010. Slight to BYU, based on team trends.
Saturday, Sept. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at CINCINNATI vs. VIRGINIA TECH (at FedEx Field)...Beamer 5-14 vs. line since late in the 2010 season. Butch Jones, however, just 2-5 as dog for Cincy since 2010. Slight to Cincy, based on recent Beamer spread woes.
at BUFFALO at UCONN...Pasqualoni 5-1 vs. line last 6 on board since late 2011. Bulls no covers last two years vs. Huskies and Jeff Quinn just 6-13 as dog since 2010 (5-5 since LY, however). UConn, based on recent trends.
at PENN STATE at ILLINOIS...Nittany Lions 2-5 as road dog since 2010 but O'Brien has covered three in a row TY. Slight to PSU, based on team and series trends.
at MINNESOTA at IOWA...Floyd of Rosedale! Minnesota has won this game the past two years and Gophers have covered 5 of last 6 Floyd battles. Iowa 0-4 vs. line TY and 5-12 against spread since 2011. Jerry Kill 7-1-1 vs. line since late 2011. Minnesota, based on team and series trends.v
at TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE...ISU has brutalized TT last two seasons with resounding upset wins by combined 93-45 scoreline! Now ISU likely favored and Cyclones 0-3 in that role since LY. Slight to TT, based on ISU chalk woes.
at CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE...Under-fire Spaziani just 4-10 vs. line at home since 2010. Dabo 7-2 vs. line last 9 away from Death Valley. Clemson, based on recent BC home woes.
at LA TECH at VIRGINIA...LT 10-0 vs. line away since LY! Va only 3-6-1 vs. line last 10 at home. LT, based on team trends.
at OHIO at UMASS...Solich only 4-4 as road chalk since 2010, but Minutemen only 1-3 vs. line TY. Ohio, based on UMass negatives.
at BALL STATE at KENT STATE...Pete Lembo 4-0 vs. line TY and 9-1 vs. spread dating back to mid 2011. Ball State 7-2 vs. points away for Lembo since LY and 26-11 in role since back in 2007. Ball State, based on extended road trend.
at IDAHO at NORTH CAROLINA...Akey 5-3 as DD road dog since 2010, and has covered 6 of last 7 vs. non-conference foes away from Kibbie Dome. Slight to Idaho, based on team trends.
at INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN...Hoosiers have covered 3 of last 4 in series but were buried at home by Cats LY. Pat Fitzgerald 6-12 last 18 as Evanston chalk but won and covered first four this season. Hoosiers just 3-6 as dog on road since 2010. Slight to NU, based on recent trends.
at MARSHALL at PURDUE...Purdue 3-0 vs. line TY and Boilermakers now 5-0 last 5, and 9-3 last 12 on board since early 2011. Purdue 6-3 vs. line at Ross-Ade since LY. Herd 4-11 vs. points away since 2010. Purdue, based on recent trends.
at DUKE at WAKE FOREST...Duke 4-1-1 vs. line last six meetings vs. Wake. Cutcliffe 16-10-2 vs. line since 2010. Duke, based on team trends.
at SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Joker's UK only 6-12 as dog since 2010 (4-3 as home dog, more trouble on road). Spurrier is 5-2 vs. line against UK since taking over at SC in 2005. SC, based on team and series trends.
at COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE...CSU no wins or covers in 3 since CU opener, and Rams now 5-13 vs. points last 18 on board. Force has won last 5 in series in style (win margins 22, 21, 18, 22, and 24, only non-cover the 22-point win in 2010). Air Force, based on series trends.
at TCU at SMU...Metroplex war. Revenge for TCU after shock home loss LY. Patterson 4-1 vs. line last five revenge games (there haven't been many of those for Frogs the past few years). June Jones just 2-8 vs. line last 10 since early 2010, and hasn't covered a regular-season game vs. an FBS foes that span. SMU just 10-20 vs. line at home since 2007. TCU, based on SMU negatives.
at CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...CMU HC Dan Enos got great win and cover at Iowa but still just 4-19 vs. points last 23 on board. Although wouldn't you know the only CMU win and cover LY was at expense of NIU. NIU, based on CMU negatives.
at UCLA at COLORADO...Jon Embree 5-12 vs. spread since a year ago. Buffs were a bit better at 2-2 as home dog LY. Bruins 3-1 SU and vs. line for Mora, but note 4-11 spread mark away from home since 2010. UCLA, based on CU negatives.
at SAN JOSE STATE at NAVY...SJS on a nice spread run, 4-0 vs. line TY, 7-0 last seven since LY (including 27-24 win over Navy in 2011), and 12-3 last 15 on board. Navy 4-8 last 12 on board. SJSU, based on recent trends.
at OREGON vs. WASHINGTON STATE (at Seattle)...Cougs haven't beaten UO since 2006 but have covered the last two years in series. Leach only 0-4 vs. line TY, however. Ducks 5-1 as road chalk LY (3-0 laying DD away) and 8-4 laying DD on road since 2007. Oregon, based on Arizona, based on team trends.
at TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Texas might be back on the upswing and big revenge for Mack after losses the last two years vs. OSU. Gundy 21-8 vs. line since 2010 and 18-8 at Stillwater since 2007. OSU, based on recent series and team trends.
at ARKANSAS at TEXAS A&M...Ark 0-4 vs. line for John L. Hogs won and covered last three years when these two played at Jerry Jones Stadium. A&M, based on recent Arkansas negatives.
at BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU Big 12 debut! While o.c. at OK State in 2010, Holgorsen beat Art Briles 55-28. Baylor only 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away. Slight to WVU, based on recent Baylor road woes.
at OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Urban Meyer was 2-2 in rare dog roles for Florida between 2007-10. Buckeyes were 11-4 vs. line away for Tressel and Fickell last two years (8-0 for Tressel in 2010). MSU no covers first 3 at home TY. Slight to OSU, based on extended road trends.
at TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Derek Dooley 0-2 SU and vs. line against Richt the past two seasons. Dooley 3-11 as dog since 2010. Georgia, based on recent series and team trends.
at ARIZONA STATE at CAL...Todd Graham 3-0-1 vs. line at ASU, his teams are 19-9-1 vs. points since 2010 at Tulsa, Pitt, and ASU. Slight to ASU, based on Todd Graham factor.
at OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Mike Riley 2-0 as dog TY, 22-10-1 in role since 2007, and 25-10-1 last 36 in role since mid 2006. Riley has also mostly owned UA with wins and covers in 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 since returning to Beavers in 2003. OSU, based on series and team trends.
at OLE MISS at ALABAMA...Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 13-3 vs. line since LY at Ark State & Ole Miss. Rebs have covered 5 of last 7 in this series (though Nick has covered 2 of last 3). Slight to Ole Miss, based on Freeze and extended series trends.
at MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON...No covers first four for Miami-O, also 6-16 as chalk since 2007. Zips were only 7-14 as dog past two years, but Terry Bowden three straight covers TY. Akron, based on recent trends.
at MISSOURI at UCF...UCF 17-9 as home chalk since 2007. UCF, especially if dog, based on team trends.
at UTEP at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 7-13 last 20 on board since mid 2010. UTEP, based on team trends.
at NC STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes 0-1 vs. line at home TY and now 11-21 vs. spread as host since 2007. Tom O'Brien 26-14-1 as dog for NCS since 2007. NCS, based on extended trends.
at FLORIDA STATE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Skip only 2-11 vs. line last 13 on board, and no covers last seven at Raymond James. Skip only 4-11 vs. points at home since 2010 and 0-2 as home dog that span. Jimbo 4-1 as road chalk LY. FSU, based on recent trends.
at TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Road-oriented series with visitor covering last five meetings. Toledo 7-3 as road dog since 2010, although WMU is 7-1 against spread last eight at Waldo Stadium. Toledo, based on series road trends.
at NEVADA at TEXAS STATE...Pack 5-2 vs. line last 7 away. Nevada, based on recent road trends.
at LOUISVILLE at SOUTHERN MISS...Ellis Johnson no covers first three TY for USM. Charlie Strong 11-3 vs. line away since 2010 for Cards. Louisville, based on Charlie Strong road marks.
at UTSA at NEW MEXICO STATE...Look out for Coker, 4-0 SU and 2-0 vs. line in early going! UTSA WAC debut. Slight to UTSA, based on recent trends.
at WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA...Bielema 0-4 vs. line TY, now 1-6-1 vs. spread away from Madison since LY. Bo Pelini has covered first three at Lincoln in 2012 after 5-9 home spread mark the past two years. Revenge for Pelini after 48-17 loss in Madison LY. Nebraska, based on recent Wisconsin road woes.
at TULSA at UAB...Tulsa 10-5 vs. line away since 2010. Tulsa, based on team trends.
at UNLV at UTAH STATE...Bobby Hauck 0-14 SU and 1-13 vs. line on road past two seasons. Rebs 8-32 vs. line on road since 2005. USU, based on UNLV road woes.
at HOUSTON vs. RICE (at Reliant Stadium)...Rice has covered 4 of last 6 meetings but has a score to settle after LY's 73-34 loss to Case Keenum & Co. Houston dreadful 0-3 SU and vs. line thus far and never having a lead in the process. Rice 23-11 vs. line within city limits since 2007. Rice, based on team trends.
at BOISE STATE at NEW MEXICO...Boise road spread mark now 12-3 since 2010 (11-3 as road chalk), 25-10 since 2007. Lobos 1-6 as DD home dog since 2010, although this will be Bob Davie's first chance in role. Boise, based on road trend.
at SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE...Tim DeRuyter off quickly at 4-0 vs. line in his debut for Fresno. Willing to overlook recent home spread failures under the former Pat Hill regime. Fresno, based on recent trends.
Saturday, Sept. 29 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at WESTERN KENTUCKY at ARKANSAS STATE...Toppers now on 13-game cover streak! WKU has also won 6 straight Belt games since losing a close one (but covering) vs. Red Wolves LY. Ark State is 11-5 itself vs. points since LY). WKU, based on team trends.
at TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...Troy 3-1 vs. line early TY after subpar 3-9 mark a year ago. But Trojans just 5-13 as chalk (1-1 TY) since 2010. Slight to USA, based on extended Troy chalk woes.
at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at LOUISIANA...Ragin' Cajuns have covered 6 of last 7 in this series dating back to the Ricky Bustle days. Hudspeth 11-5 vs. line for ULL since LY. Louisiana, based on series and team trends.
at NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...... 8-20 vs. line since 2010 and 3-8 vs. spread as host since then (1-5 vs. line at new Owls Stadium since LY). UNT, based on team trends.
at MIDDLE TENNESSEE at GEORGIA TECH...Tech has won and covered big the last two years vs. MTSU. MTSU 2-1 vs. line TY but 9-19 vs. mark since 2010. GT, based on team and series trends.
at UL-MONROE at TULANE...ULM 3-0 vs. line TY and has covered 6 of last 7 since late 2011. Tulane 9-23 vs. points at home since 2007. ULM, based on team trends.

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