Fade Alert - Florida State
October 4, 2012
By Marc Lawrence
Editor’s Note: Check out more system plays from Marc Lawrence on VegasInsider.com this Saturday. Click to win!
Fear the Fat Cats
It’s the time of the season in which undefeated teams in the world of college football begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game. Especially for those teams that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.
Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to ‘playing on’ these 5-0 clubs as Game Six is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these Fat Cats.
That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 247-104-6 SU and 150-177-4 ATS overall. Hence, the bubble bursts 30% of the time in Game Six situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.
Worse, if they won 7 or more games last season they dip to 86-112-3 ATS when taking on a foe with at least one loss on the season. Florida State, Ohio University and Oregon all take the field in this role looking to improve to 6-0 this week, with Alabama and Louisville sitting in the waiting room looking to do the same next week.
Florida State at N.C. State
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Oregon vs. Washington
Alabama at Missouri
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Put these same 5-0 Fat Cats up against an avenging foe who won 6 or more games last season and they begin to shrink up faster than a hemorrhoid staring at a tube of ‘Preparation H’, shriveling to 17-34-1 ATS. Florida State and Oregon are in line for a major application this week.
Best of all, if these identical 5-0 Fat Cats are on the road against an avenging foe who won 6 or more games last season they disappear, losing half the games in straight-up fashion, going 11-12 SU and 3-19-1 ATS.
As one of our all time favorite bands – the Traveling Wilburys – once said, it just might be the ‘End Of The Line’ for the Florida State Seminoles this weekend.
22-5 Streak, 72% +2,969 Overall
2-0 Bowls, 19-5 Run, 64% +2,705
5-0 G-Plays, 16-4 Picks, +1,948 TY
6-0 L6, 20-8 Picks, 18-5 Totals
4-1 Saturday, 13-5 L18 Picks
10-4 L14, 24-10 Run, 13-3 G-Plays
10-2 L12 Picks, 62% +1,445 TY
31-15 L46 G-Plays, 8-3 L11 Totals
21-9 Picks, 4-2 G-Plays, 13-5 Totals
2-0 Bowls, 13-5 G-Plays, +1,642
9-4 L13 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-3 L9 Picks, 15-8 G-Plays, +1,467
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Totals
5-2 Picks, 9-4 G-Plays, +1,020 TY
3-1 Bowls, 13-4 Run, 23-10 G-Plays
32-16 Record L12 Saturdays
6-1 L7 College Guarantees
2-0 Bowls, 7-1 L8 NCAA FB Run
3-1 Bowls, 7-3 L10 Guarantees
13-6 L19 Guaranteed Plays
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