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ACC Report - Week 8

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Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 8 from Joe Williams. Click to win!

Big Ten  ·   Pac-12  ·   ACC

In Week 7, there was nothing that jumped off the board, and the worst thing you can do is bet just to bet. That's usually what the books want, because they'll win every time. Find restraint when it is needed, and maybe look elsewhere for your action. I decided to do some studying late in the week, and ended up having one of my better weeks of the season despite staying away from my most frequently wagered conference. Find yourself two or three conferences and stick to it. There is no shame in taking a break when it isn't there for you. Would you rather lose betting something you don't necessarily love because you just need the action? If you enjoy losing money, I'll send you my Pay Pal and you can just ship it to me.

Speaking of ACC play, I'll be taking in the North Carolina-Duke game at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend, and looking forward to it. The two schools separated by about eight miles usually have heated battles in basketball, I am sure you have heard, but lately there hasn't been much of a rivalry on the gridiron. It's different in 2012.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/17/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 15-7-0 ( 68.2% , +720)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0   - (+/-0) 
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1   Won (+90) 
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2  Won (+80) 
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1  Won (+90) 
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1  Won (+80) 
Saturday - Florida State at Miami (Fla.) (ABC/ESPN3, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
Florida State at Miami
This game used to mean the world in college football. Florida State and Miami were always fighting for the perch, not just in their conference, but in the football world. These days, FSU is back to prominence, although a trip up in Raleigh a couple of weeks ago sent them spinning. They got untracked against Boston College, and now hope to keep their rivals down. While the Hurricanes have gotten drilled during their high-profile, non-conference games, they are still 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC matchups. That includes an 18-14 setback to UNC last week in which the Canes were a 7.5-point dog at home. This is the true definition of a rivalry game, especially if you look at the underdog's record lately. In the past 13 meetings, the dog has covered 12 times. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. However, FSU is installed as a three-touchdown favorite on the road, and in this type of game, that's an awful lot of points. Still, Miami QB Stephen Morris (ankle) is doubtful to play, so that changes everything.
Saturday - North Carolina at Duke (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
North Carolina at Duke
Duke bolted out to a 20-0 lead last week in Blacksburg, and it appeared they were on the brink of bowl eligibility with their sixth win. But Virginia Tech dashed the dreams of the Blue Devils, scoring 41 unanswered points, sending them back to Durham with kicked behinds. Now, the Blue Devils are back home, where they have been money, squaring off against their rivals from down US 15-501. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record, and 0-4 ATS in their past four road games overall. For Duke, while they have been poor on the road, they are 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games - and they are getting 10.5 points in this one. Duke is also 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and 11-3-1 ATS in their past 15 games played in the month of October. However, UNC is 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings at Wallace Wade Stadium. However, this Blue Devils team is markedly better than most, if not all, of those previous squads. This one might be decided by a touchdown or less.
Saturday - Virginia Tech at Clemson (ABC/ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Virginia Tech at Clemson
When these two teams get together, it usually has championship ramifications. This season, it is an elimination game of sorts. Virginia Tech is already on life support after a pair of early ACC losses, while Clemson can ill-afford another setback after losing at Florida State. This should be a highly contentious affair. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a winning record. In addition, Va. Tech is 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine games, and 4-13 ATS in their past 17 on grass. Meanwhile, Clemson is 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, but 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record. As far as head-to-head, Virginia Tech is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with Clemson, and the dog is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series. As far as the total, while the over is 4-1 in Virginia Tech's past five, and 4-0 in Clemson's past four, the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series.
Saturday - North Carolina State at Maryland (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
North Carolina State at Maryland
The Wolfpack is a hard team to figure. They go down to Miami and lose a shootout on the road, and then come home and trip up Florida State with a rousing comeback. They're even harder to figure against the number. NC State is 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, but 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road contests. For Maryland, they're fairly easy to figure. They're not good. They are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, 3-10 ATS in their past 13 games overall, and 0-9 ATS in their past nine home games. In this series, however, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under could be the way to go, as the under is 5-1 in NC State's past six road games, and 6-2 in their past eight ACC battles. The under is 5-2 in Maryland's past seven home games. Of course, the over is 4-0 in the past four meetings, so make of that what you will.
Saturday - Boston College at Georgia Tech (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
Boston College at Georgia Tech
There are some big nuggets of information to remember heading into what looks like a meaningless game between two bad teams. Boston College is 10th in the ACC in total offense with 383.8 yards per game, and they are ninth in scoring with slightly less than 25 points per game. In addition, Boston College has allowed 32.7 ppg on defense, and they have allowed almost 500 yards of offense to the opposition. They are terrible against the run, especially, which is never good when facing Ga. Tech. The Yellow Jackets are third in the NCAA with 331.0 yards per game on the ground. This one could get really ugly. B.C. is 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall, and they are 7-20 ATS in their past 27 games against a team with a losing record. Georgia Tech is 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 games against a team with a losing record, but just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 ACC games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. At a two-touchdown margin, it is an interesting line. It's easy to see Georgia Tech covering with their rush offense vs. BC's defense, but it's also easy to see B.C. covering, because neither team is very good.
Saturday - Wake Forest at Virginia (GamePlan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
Wake Forest at Virginia
The Demon Deacons will be looking to keep up their dominance against the spread against poor teams. Wake is 5-1 ATS in their past six games against teams with a losing record, but they are just 7-15 ATS in their past 22 road games. However, UVA has been terrible against the spread. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four ACC games, 0-4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 0-8-1 ATS in their past nine games overall. Wake has dominated this series, going 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to UVA, and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six meetings overall with the Cavaliers. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six battles, and the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 matchups. All signs point to a Wake cover.

  
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