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ACC Report - Week 9

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 9 from Joe Williams. Click to win!

It was another good week in the ACC, as I was fortunate enough to select two winners. I was in attendance at the thrilling UNC-Duke game last Saturday, and Duke was in command for most of the game. However, UNC made a feverish comeback, and actually took the lead briefly. Down 30-26, the Blue Devils ended up winning with a fourth-down play in the final minute in the red zone, sending the unusually large and boisterous crowd at Wallace Wade Stadium into a frenzy.

It could have been an even better weekend had I pulled the trigger on Georgia Tech (-14) at home against Boston College, but I didn't like the Yellow Jackets based upon their overall record, and inability to beat Middle Tennessee at home earlier in the year. I also cooled on Clemson (-8) late in the week, tricked into believing Virginia Tech couldn't possibly be the mediocre team that they have become. However, I am not greedy, I'll take my two victories, and feel very happy with an overall 5-1 mark for the previous week. Let's pick some more winners this weekend! Good luck to all.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/20/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 17-7-0 ( 70.8% , +920)
Week Record Total
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0   Won (+ 200) 
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0   - (+/-0) 
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1   Won (+90) 
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2  Won (+80) 
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1  Won (+90) 
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1  Won (+80) 
Saturday - North Carolina State at North Carolina (GamePlan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
North Carolina State at North Carolina
This will be a very interesting game to watch, as there are so many different storylines. The Tar Heels were stunned in Durham last weekend by their normally doormat-like rivals, the Duke Blue Devils. Now, they come home to face their bigger gridiron rival, and Triangle neighbor, the N.C. State Wolfpack. Last season, the Pack beat the Heels 13-0 for their fifth consecutive victory in the series. In most of those games, the Wolfpack have been the underdog, and that is no different this season. N.C. State is a very attractive 7.5-point underdog in this one. While the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS over their past six home games, the underdog is 12-2 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and N.C. State is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings between these bitter rivals. Keep in mind, North Carolina is also just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record, while the Pack is 5-2-1 ATS in similar situations.
Thursday - Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
Clemson at Wake Forest
The ACC will get a handful of Thursday games, and this week's battle will be a good one despite a deceptive 13.5-point spread. The Clemson Tigers look to remain on a roll as they head into Winston-Salem. Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its past five ACC battles, and 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, including a drumming of Virginia Tech last weekend in Death Valley. On the flip side, Wake is 5-2 ATS in its past seven conference games, including an outright win at Virginia last weekend. However, the Deacs are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. One note to really remember is that the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and Clemson is just 1-4-1 ATS in its past six visits to Wake. In looking at the total, the under is 6-1 in Clemson's past seven games on fieldturf, and the under is 10-3 in Clemson's past 13 road contests and 7-2 in the past nine Thursday games. For Wake, the under is 8-3 in their past 11 games overall, and 5-2 in their past seven ACC battles. In this series, the under has cashed in four straight meetings.
Saturday - Duke at Florida State (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Duke at Florida State
The Duke Blue Devils lead the Coastal Division, and this game could potentially be an ACC Championship Game preview, as strange as that sounds. In fact, Duke is the only team in the Coastal Division more than two games over .500, sitting at an impressive and bowl eligible 6-2. However, they have been a tremendously different football team on the road than they are at home. They are 5-0 at home, and 1-2 on the road, outscored in their three trips away from Durham by a combined score of 117-68. However, Duke is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 games in the month of October. Florida State is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC games, 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Duke, who needs to prove they can hang with the big boys. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, but Duke is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS during that span.
Saturday - Brigham Young at Georgia Tech (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Brigham Young at Georgia Tech
This will be an interesting game to watch despite the overall records of the teams. Brigham Young comes in with one of the better defenses in the nation, while the Yellow Jackets are one of the most prolific rushing offenses in the game. BYU is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, and 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games overall. Interestingly, though, BYU is 0-4 ATS in their past four games against ACC opponents. Meanwhile, the Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games against Independents. The line trends might be a bit confusing, although at first glance BYU might be a good moneyline play mainly because they have been a better team overall this season. However, the total looks to be more in agreement with an under play. The under is 5-1 in BYU's past six games on grass, 4-1 in their past five overall, and the under is 5-2 in BYU's past seven against ACC opponents. For Georgia Tech, the under is 27-10-2 in their past 39 October games, and 3-0-1 in their past four games against Independents.
Saturday - Maryland at Boston College (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
Boston College at Maryland
Looking at the overall records, Maryland seems like a slam-dunk play getting a point from a 1-6 Boston College club. However, keep in mind that the Terps lost QB Perry Hills (knee) to a torn ACL last week, meaning the club will either hand the reins to true freshman Caleb Rowe or Devin Burns, a redshirt sophomore who orchestrated three straight scoring drives once Hills went down last week. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a losing record, but they are just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games overall. B.C. is 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games and 0-5 ATS in their past five overall. In the past five meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS. The under might be the better play, especially considering Maryland's uncertainty at the QB position. The under is 5-2 in Maryland's past seven ACC games, while the under is 19-6-1 in B.C.'s past 26 games overall. The under is also 10-4 in Boston College's past 14 home games.

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