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Pac-12 Report - Week 9
October 26, 2012
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 9 from Joe Williams. Click to win!
Big Ten · ACC · Pac-12
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Arizona and head coach Rich Rodriguez could use a signature win, and taking down Pac-12 behemoth USC would definitely fit that bill. The Wildcats have started out 1-3 in conference play, and are quickly fading from the bowl picture. They need two victories to become bowl eligible, and really are likely to be favored in just one of their remaining games. USC covered a giant number last weekend against Colorado, and this week they'll only need to cover six points. USC is just 2-5 ATS this season, but as mentioned they covered last week, and are 2-2 ATS in their past four. Arizona comes in having covered two straight, and they are 4-2 ATS in their past six. In this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but USC is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven battles. In addition, the underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven contests between the sides. The under might be a better play, as the number has gone under in four of USC's past five, and the under is 5-1 in their past six Pac-12 games. The under is also 7-3 in USC's past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Arizona, the over is 5-1 in their past six home games. However, the under is 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in Arizona, and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall. |
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This is a battle of two 5-2 teams with major bowl implications in the Pac-12. The Bruins need to get it together if they're going to remain in that picture, or they'll be playing mighty early in the bowl season. UCLA is just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 Pac-12 games, they're just 10-22 ATS in their past 32 games on grass, and just 2-14 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October. AZ State, on the other hand, is 5-1 ATS in their past six games on grass, 3-1-1 in their past five games in the month of October, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall. However, in this series, UCLA has covered seven of the past nine, though the home team is a perfect 5-0. That's a bit confusing. The total might not be. The under has cashed in seven of UCLA's past eight games following an ATS loss, and the under has cashed in four of their five games overall. The under is also 37-15-1 in their past 53 Pac-12 games. For AZ State, the under is also 4-1 in their past five games overall, and 5-1 in their past six home games against a team with a winning road record. However, the over is 8-3 in the past 11 home games for the Sun Devils, so maybe take the under and bet lightly, especially if you can get it at 58 or higher. |
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The public is in love with the Beavers this weekend, picking them at a nearly 2-to-1 clip to cover in Seattle against the Huskies. The public had similar trust in Stanford a few weeks back on a Thursday, and were smacked by Washington. Love for Oregon State might be warranted, however. First, they get QB Sean Mannion back from injury. He missed the past two games due to a knee injury. QB Cody Vaz did an admirable just leading the team to a pair of wins in his first two collegiate starts, and he is waiting in the wings if Mannion is rusty. Second, Oregon State is a robust 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games, and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six Pac-12 battles. In addition, Oregon State is a whopping 40-14-1 in their past 55 games in the month of October. For Washington, they are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. In addition, the Huskies are a dismal 13-36-2 ATS in their past 51 games in the month of October. Now, here is the dealbreaker if you were leaning toward U-Dub: Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to Seattle. |
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This is a game the Cardinal should dominate, as they're a 5-2 team which is battle-tested against a difficult early slate of opponent, against a Cougars team still finding its way. Washington State is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five road contests, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, Washington State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, so they definitely rise for the occasion. Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record, and they are 20-5-1 ATS in their past 26 games following an ATS win. Stanford is also a solid 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 Pac-12 games, and have been a bettor's friend by going 35-16-1 ATS over their past 52 overall. In this series, the fave is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles, and the Cougars are an awful 5-12 ATS in the past 17 meetings. |
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Poor Colorado. They might be regretting their move to the Pac-12 right about now, as they are in the second of a three-game stretch at USC, at Oregon and home to Stanford. Ouch. The Buffaloes were drilled 50-6 last week at SC, and they have now failed to cover in six of their seven games this season. They're an awful football team, and not showing any signs of getting better. Last season, they were punished by UO 45-2. It should be more of the same this weekend, and this game wouldn't even be a one-star matchup if not for the fact it involved Oregon. After some early backdoor covers, and an 0-3 ATS mark to start the season, the Ducks have gained traction and are 3-1 ATS over their past four. While Colorado is 7-20 ATS in their past 27 road games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 games a team with a winning record, the Ducks are 23-8-2 ATS in their past 33 tries against a team with a losing record, and 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 Pac-12 battles. |
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It's ironic this is a game under 'Game to Watch' when there is no television, but anyway. Cal is just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 games, although during that span they ruined a lot of bettors' plans with a sound victory over UCLA. Cal also hasn't played particularly well against team's with a losing record, going 3-7 ATS over their past 10 games in that situation. For Utah, they have bounced back well after a straight-up loss, going 6-1 ATS in the following game. In addition, they are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a losing record. However, the better way to go might be the total. The under has cashed in four straight for Cal against a team with a losing record, and is 4-1 in Cal's past five overall. The under is also 21-8 in Cal's past 29 Pac-12 games. For Utah, the under is 4-1 in their past five conference games, 5-1 in their past six visits from a team with a losing road record, and 5-1 in the past six in the month of October. |
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