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Tech Trends - Week 11
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NFL Trends

Thursday, Nov. 8
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at FLORIDA STATE at VIRGINIA TECH... Bad times for Beamer, now 2-7 vs. line TY after Miami loss, and 6-18 against spread last 24 on board. FSU no covers first three as road chalk TY after 6-2 mark vs. line in role 2010-11. Slight to FSU, based on recent trends.
at UL-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE... Ark State has won and covered last two meetings after ULM had covered last five meetings. LM 5-0 as covered last seven away since late LY, yet Red Wolves 15-6 vs. spread in reg. season since LY. ASU, based on recent trends.
Friday, Nov. 9
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at PITTSBURGH at UCONN...Pasqualoni 1-5 vs. line alst six TY, while Pitt 6-1 vs. line last 7 TY. Pittsburgh, based on recent trends.
Saturday, Nov. 10
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN...Fitzgerald superb 8-1 vs. line TY, although most of the damage has come at Evanston (6-0 vs. line at home, 2-1 vs. spread away). Cats were 3-8 vs. line away past two years. Brady Hoke 7-4 vs. spread at Ann Arbor since LY but only 4-5 against spread overall TY. NU has covered 3 of last 4 in series. NU, based on team trends.
at MARYLAND at CLEMSON...Clemson on uptick with six straight covers TY. Tigers 7-4 vs. line at home since LY. Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.
at WAKE FOREST at NC STATE...Tom O'Brien has dropped last three vs. number TY but is still 29-13 vs. spread after fifth game of season at NCS since 2007. Home team has covered last five in series. Pack 11-4-1 vs. line at Raleigh since 2010, Grobe only 6-8 as road dog since 2010. Slight to NCS, based on team trends.
at ARMY at RUTGERS...West Point no covers first three away TY and 2-9 vs. line away from Michie since LY. Rutgers 6-1 vs. line last seven in series, but Scarlet Knights 0-3 as DD chalk TY. Rutgers, based on West Point road negatives.
at LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE...Cards 1-2 vs. line away TY after Charlie Strong was 11-2 against spread away the previous two years. Slight to Cuse, based on recent trends.
at MIAMI-FLORIDA at VIRGINIA...Cavs 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY. Al "Touch of" Golden still has some spread magic with 13-9 spread mark at Miami since LY. Mike London, however, 2-0 SU and vs. line against Canes. Slight to Miami, based on recent Uva negatives.
at MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...Illini no wins or covers last five TY. Illini 5-8 vs. line at home since LY. Gophers have won as DD dog vs. Illini past two years. Gophers are 0-3 vs. line away TY but 8-5-1 last 13 on board since late LY. Minnesota, based on team trends.
at WISCONSIN at INDIANA...IU on 5-game cover streak TY, Bielema 4-1 vs. line last 5 but Badgers only six covers last 17 on board (6-10-1). Badgers 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 meetings and destroyed IU last two years by 142-27 total score. IU, based on recent trends.
at PURDUE at IOWA...Neither doing too much lately, Purdue 1-5 vs. line last five TY, Iowa 2-7 against spread in 2012. Ferentz just 7-15 vs. points since 2011. Danny Hope, however, is 2-0 as road dog TY. Slight to Purdue, based on Iowa negatives.
at VANDERBILT at OLE MISS...Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 7-2 vs. line with Ole Miss and 17-4 vs. spread since LY at Ark State & Miss. Although this series has been quite Vandy-oriented lately, with Dores 4-1 SU and vs. line last five in this SEC crossover series. Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze numbers.
at GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Nine games into this season and the home team has covered in every UNC game (Heels 5-0 vs. spread at Chapel Hill!). And Paul Johnson has lost his spread magic, just 3-10 last 13 and 4-13 last 17 on board since early 2011. UNC, based on recent trends.
at CENTRAL MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...CMU just 5-24 vs. line its last 29 on board for Dan the Man Enos. But can we trust EMU? Eagles have covered last two at Ypsilanti TY but still just 7-18 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium since 2007. Slight to EMU, based on extended CMU woes.
at KENT STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...Kent State 6-1 vs. line last 7 TY; Miami-O just 2-6 vs. line in 2012 (even with Ohio upset). Kent State, based on recent trends.
at IDAHO at BYU...Sarah Palin's alma mater UI, now coached by Jason Gesser, no covers last 6 of 7 of last 8 TY. Bronco Mendenhall 8-3 as DD chalk since 2010 (2-1 TY). BYU, based on team trends.
at UMASS at AKRON...UMass slumping again with four straight spread Ls (2-7 vs. line overall). Zips 1-4 vs. line at InfoCision Stadium TY but 1-0 as rare chalk (Morgan State), and Zips actually 3-1 as rare chalk since 2010. Slight to Akron, based on team trends.
at WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Bulls 1-4 vs. line at UB Stadium TY, and just 12-21 vs. points since Jeff Quinn took over in 2010. WMU, based on Buffalo negatives.
at TEXAS A&M at ALABAMA...Note road team 7-2 vs. line in Tide games TY (Bama 1-3 as host vs. line). But Nick 31-17 last 48 vs. number. Sumlin 0-2 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since 2010 with Houston & A&M. Slight to Bama, based on team trends.
at GEORGIA at AUBURN...Tigers a very tough sell with 3-6 spread mark TY and 8-14 vs. line post-Cam Newton. Richt 10-6 vs. line away since 2010 (6-6 road chalk). Richt 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. line last six vs. Auburn, only SU loss vs. Cam in 2010. Georgia, based on Auburn negatives.
at PENN STATE at NEBRASKA...O'Brien 7-1 vs. line last eight TY and 4-0 vs. line on road. Bo Pelini 4-1 vs. spread at home in 2012 (home team is 7-1 vs. line in Husker games TY) and has covered 5 of last 6 at Lincoln, but is only 9-13-1 overall vs. spread last 23 since late 2010. Slight to Penn State, based on recent trends.
at NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE...Irish have won last three in series SU (only 1-2 vs. line in those games, however) after BC had won six in a row previous. Still, Eagles 5-3 vs. line last eight meetings. Yet Irish are 4-0 vs. line away TY and Spaziani just 2-7 vs. number overall, and Spaziani only 2-5 as home dog since 2010. ND, based on recent trends.
at ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Tosh.O Kiffin 2-7 vs. line TY Todd Graham 22-13-1 as dog in career at Rice (206), Tulsa (2007-10), Pitt (2011), and ASU (2012). Revenge for Tosh.O after loss to Erickson LY but Sun Devils have covered last three in series. Arizona State, based on team trends.
at UTAH at WASHINGTON...Huskies are 4-1 vs. line at Seahawks' CenturyLink Field since LY. Utah 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. line away TY. Whittingham only 7-7 as dog since 2010. Slight to UW, based on recent trends.
at WYOMING at NEW MEXICO...Lobos 5-2 vs. line last seven TY for Bob Davie and 10-4 last 14 on board overall. Dave Christensen is one of the two coaches (Steve Fairchild the other) to have lost a game to a Mike Locksley-coached New Mexico team. New Mexico, based on team trends.
at SAN JOSE STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...SJSU 7-2 vs. line TY, 10-2 last 12 since late 2011, 15-6 last 21 on board. Spartans have also covered last seven on road and are 4-2 as chalk TY. SJSU, based on team trends.
at OREGON at CAL...Ducks have failed to cover last 3 at Berkeley and home team is 5-1 vs. spread last six in this series. Bears, however, just 1-5 vs. line since moving back into Berkeley TY, and Ducks 7-2 vs. spread away since LY. Oregon, based on team trends.
at WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...WVU 1-6 last seven vs. spread TY, OSU 4-1 at Stillwater vs. number. Gundy 21-8 as home chalk since 2007, though Holgorsen 4-1 as dog since LY. OSU, based on team trends.
at KANSAS STATE at TCU...Bill Snyder 7-2 vs. line TY and 16-6 since a year ago, also 11-5 last 16 vs. spread away from home. KSU, based on recent trends.
at CINCINNATI at TEMPLE...Owls wobbling, destroyed last three games and only 2-5 last seven vs. number in 2012. Cincy, based on recent trends.
at MISSOURI at TENNESSEE...Derek Dooley 0-5 vs. line at Knoxville TY. Dooley 8-3 as chalk previous two seasons but only 1-4 in role TY. Mizzou, based on recent Derek Dooley home woes.
at IOWA STATE at TEXAS...Mack just 5-12 vs. spread at Austin since 2010. Paul Rhoads 8-4 last 12 on board and 11-7 as dog sicne LY. ISU, based on team trends.
at AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...SDSU 3-3 vs. line at home and as chalk TY, AFA only 1-3 vs. line away after 5-1 mark LY. But Force 1-0 as road dog TY and 5-2 in role since 2010. Quick note that Rocky Long was 0-5 vs. spread last five vs. AFA while New Mexico HC before winning 41-27 with Aztecs LY. SDSU has also covered last three in series. Air Force, based on team trends.
at SOUTHERN MISS at SMU...USM 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line TY. Meanwhile, June Jones has covered 4 of last 5 as host. SMU, based on recent trends.
at MARSHALL at UAB...Herd 2-0-1 vs. line last three away TY. Herd has won and covered big the last three meetings in series including 59-14 LY. Marshall, based on recent trends.
at TULSA at HOUSTON...This one always recalls the 100-6 UH blowout in 1968. Levine only 3-6 vs. line TY in UH debut, Tulsa 12-6 vs. spread away since 2010. Tulsa, based on team trends.
at UNLV at COLORADO STATE...Rebs have covered last two as visitor after 1-17 previous 18 away. And UNLV 7-3 vs. line TY. CSU only 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY (and 1-7 SU last 8). UNLV, based on recent trends.
at BOISE STATE at HAWAII...Norm Chow no wins or covers last six TY. Boise 3-1 vs. line away TY, and 25-7 last 32 vs. spread away from blue carpet. Boise State, based on team trends.
at UCLA at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 0-3 vs. line in Pullman TY, Mora 3-1 vs. points away from home. UCLA, based on recent trends.
at UCF at UTEP...Miners no covers last two at home TY and 1-4 last five on board, only cover via backdoor at Houston. Mike Price 15-27 vs. spread last five games of season since taking over at UTEP in 2004. O'Leary 3-1 vs. line away TY. UCF, based on team trends.
at COLORADO at ARIZONA...Buffs 2-13 as road dog since 2010 season, and Jon Embree 5-17 vs. line since LY. Rich-Rod 5-2 vs. line last seven TY. Arizona, based on CU/Embree woes.
at ARKANSAS at SOUTH CAROLINA...John L. 1-7 (2-7 counting Kentucky) vs. line TY. Spurrier no covers last two in 2012 but had covered previous six and is 8-3 last 11 on board since late LY. Big revenge for Spurrier after losing and failing to cover big last three vs. the Petrino Razorbacks. SC, based on recent trends.
at KANSAS at TEXAS TECH...Weis 1-3 vs. line away TY, KU now 3-8 last 10 vs. points away from home. Red Raiders have also won and covered last three in series, encompassing various coaching regimes. Texas Tech, based on team and series trends.
at LA TECH at TEXAS STATE...Sonny Dykes finally failed to cover on road when falling short at NMSU, but LT had covered 13 straight away from Ruston prior to that one. La Tech, based on team trends.
at BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA...Stoops in revenge mode after loss at Baylor LY, Stoops 4-2 vs. line last six in revenge. Baylor 4-8 vs. line last 12 away from Waco, though Stoops only 5-5 as Norman chalk since LY. Slight to OU, based on team trends.
at TULANE at MEMPHIS...Wave on the ascent, covers last 4 and 4-0-1 last four vs. line TY. Memphis has covered last two at Liberty Bowl TY but Tigers just 3-5 vs. line overall for Fuente TY and still just 6-10 vs. spread at home since 2010. Tulane, based on recent trends.
at OREGON STATE at STANFORD...Ugh! Tree only 2-3 vs. line at home TY, while OSU is 4-0 as dog TY. Mike Riley 24-10-1 as dog since 2007. OSU, based on team trends.
at MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...Dan Mullen 3-7 vs. line away since LY, 3-8 last 11 as dog, and LSU has won and covered handily last two years. Slight to LSU, based on team trends.
at FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Wolf Pack no covers last five TY, Fresno 8-1 vs. number in 2012. Nevada 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 1-7 last 8 at home. Fresno, based on recent trends.
Saturday, Nov. 10 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at FLORIDA ATLANTIC at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Now it's FAU with the hot spread streak (covered last seven), and WKU 1-2 last three vs. spread. FAU, based on recent trends.
at NAVY at TROY...Navy has won last 4 SU TY (3-1 vs. line) since QB switch and have won and covered last three on road. Troy no covers last three TY and was ripped 42-14 at Navy LY. Troy 3-11 vs. line at home since 2010. Navy, based on team trends.
at SOUTH ALABAMA at NORTH TEXAS...Jags have failed to cover at home TY (0-5 at Mobile) but 4-0 on road, as visiting team is 9-0 vs. line in USA games! USA, based on road-in-Jag trends.
at UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA...ULL 2-2 vs. line away TY after 7-1 road spread mark LY. ULL, based on road trends.

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