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ACC Report - Week 12

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 12 from Joe Williams. Click to win!

I was staring a perfect 3-0 in the ACC last week right in the face, but the Virginia Cavaliers mounted an impressive two-minute drill to score with :06 left in regulation to knock off the Miami Hurricanes, whom I had on the moneyline instead of the published plus-2. The Canes frittered away 10-point fourth quarter lead, causing me to say bad words in front of my kids, and put me in a generally foul mood for the remainder of the day. All because of a Miami-Virginia game. I really need to stop watching my picked games, and just check the scores later after doing something productive. But, we all know, that simply can't be done. It is more fun to follow the games online or on television, even when we take a bad beat. Gotta love the action.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/10/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 22-13-0 ( 62.9% , +775)
Week Record Total
Week 11 (Nov. 8-10) 2-1   Won (+ 100) 
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1   Won (+ 200) 
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4   Lost (- 445) 
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0   Won (+ 200) 
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0   - (+/-0) 
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1   Won (+90) 
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2  Won (+80) 
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1  Won (+90) 
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1  Won (+80) 
Saturday - North Carolina State at Clemson (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
North Carolina State at Clemson
Who knows what Wolfpack team is going to show up here? They beat Florida State, they get smashed by a terrible Virginia team, and then rebound the next week by crushing Wake Forest. This team is borderline schizophrenic. N.C. State gained bowl eligibility with their win over the Deacs, becoming the fourth ACC team to qualify for postseason play (UNC also has six wins, but is ineligible for a bowl). The Wolfpack is 0-5-1 ATS in their past six road games, but 25-12-3 ATS against a team with a winning record in its past 40 games. N.C. State is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 games in November. Those trends are just as confusing as their on-field play. Meanwhile, Clemson is not confusing. They have covered seven straight, and they are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. In addition, Clemson is 25-10 ATS in their past 35 ACC battles. More confusing, though, is the fact N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Death Valley, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings (the lone loss last season when Clemson was killed in Raleigh late in the season), and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall. The Tigers are favored by 17 points in this one, and the public likes them at about a 2-to-1 clip. The good news for the Tigers is that WR Sammy Watkins (leg) is probable to play. I can totally see a backdoor cover happening in this game once it has already been decided.
Saturday - Duke at Georgia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
Duke at Georgia Tech
If the Duke Blue Devils are ever going to get any respect, they are going to need to find a way to win on the road. While impressive at home, at least against teams they should beat, they are 5-1. However, on the road they are an abysmal 1-3, and they have been outscored by 166-74 in those four contests away from Wallace Wade. As such, Vegas has installed the Ramblin' Wreck as a two-touchdown favorite. Too much? Let's see. Duke is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games, but 1-6 ATS in their past seven road contests. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech is 5-2 ATS in its past seven ACC battles. The over might be the play here, as the total has gone over the number four times (4-0-1) in Duke's past five road contests, and the over is 7-0-1 in Duke's past eight ACC games overall. For Georgia Tech, the over is 7-1 in its past eight games, and 6-0 in its past six games against a team with a winning record. This could be a high-scoring affair. The total is set high at 68.
Saturday - Wake Forest at Notre Dame (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Wake Forest at Notre Dame
This one doesn't figure to be close, although the Fighting Irish have had a penchant of letting lesser teams hang around and at least make it interesting (see Pitt, BC). Vegas has made ND a 24-point favorite, although Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their past five games. Wake is 4-1 ATS in its past four against Independents, and 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games following a straight-up loss. When these teams met in Winston-Salem last season (Nov. 5, 2011), Wake hung tight before eventually losing 24-17, covering at home. The Deacs have covered two of their past three on the road. The total of under 42 looks mighty tasty, as the under has cashed in five straight for Wake, and is 19-7 in ND's past 26 in the shadow of 'Touchdown Jesus'. The under is also 14-3 in the Irish's past 17 against ACC opponents, including last week at Chestnut Hill against BC.
Saturday - Florida State at Maryland (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Florida State at Maryland
Maryland will be wearing super-cool black Under Armour uniforms for their game. Wait until you see them Saturday, unless you want to Google them now. I am a traditionalist, and have tremendous disdain for these ever-changing uniforms for each team every other week, but these are pretty awesome. Now, too bad Maryland can't change their team. They're still the same old Terrapins who are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 home games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 ACC games. Facing Florida State is not good news, although the 'Noles are 0-4 ATS in their past four road contests, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven. FSU has dominated this series lately, and they are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The favorite (presumably Florida State each time) is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. The total might be the way to go in this one, as it is hard to see Maryland scoring much against this defense, using a fourth-string linebacker-turned-quarterback to run the offense. The under is 4-0 in Maryland's past four games against a team with a winning record, 5-2 in their past seven overall, and 7-3 in their past 10 ACC games. The under is also 6-1 in FSU's past seven road contests, and 9-4-1 in their past 14 overall. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in the series, and 4-1 in the past five meetings at College Park. Right now, you can hit the under at 45.5 or 46 points.
Thursday - North Carolina at Virginia (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
North Carolina at Virginia
It could be argued that the Virginia Cavaliers are the hottest team in the Coastal Division of the ACC. That's not saying much, and speaks volumes about the imbalance in the conference. However, UVA has ripped off two straight wins, and remain bowl eligible if they can win against UNC and Virginia Tech. Despite their two-game winning streak, though, they are just 1-8-1 ATS overall this season, and 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 games overall. North Carolina, on the other hand, is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. In this series, the Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings with the Hoos, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight trips to Charlottesville. That might mean UVA is a good bet at home despite their recent trouble against the number. The total trends are a mess, as the over is 5-1 in UNC's past six, but the under is 9-3 in UVA's past 12 games at Scott Stadium. It's a good idea to avoid the total.
Saturday - Virginia Tech at Boston College (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
Virginia Tech at Boston College
The game might be ugly. At first glance, Virginia Tech is 0-5 on the road this season, but favored by 10. What? The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a losing record. In addition, they are 6-16-1 ATS in their past 23 games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC battles. So, what gives? Well, Boston College is just 6-13 ATS in its past 19 home games, and 6-20 ATS in the past 26 battles against teams with a losing record. They are also 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight games overall. So someone will be bucking a trend here. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six games.
Saturday - South Florida at Miami (Fla.) (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
South Florida at Miami
A couple of years ago, this might have been an attractive matchup, but the Bulls are just not the team they were then. USF looked to be a rising team, but they have fallen off badly. The Bulls are just 1-11-1 ATS in their past 13 games on grass, and 4-13-1 ATS in their past 18 games overall. They do hold a 7-2 ATS record in the past nine matchups with ACC opponents, but that's about the only thing to get bettors off of Miami. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games, 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, and 4-0 ATS in their past four on grass. Miami hurt some people (ME!) with a last-second loss at Virginia, losing by one, but still cover a plus-2 line. If you had them on the moneyline, though (again, ME!), then you have a bit of a sour taste in your mouth.

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