Games to Watch - Week 6
September 30, 2013
By Brian Edwards
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Editor’s Note: Brian Edwards finished up Week 5 with a 5-2 (71%) record. Don’t miss out on his Week 6 Winners on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
Arkansas at Florida
Most books opened Florida (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) as a 10.5-point favorite. The Gators have won their first two SEC games over Tennessee and Kentucky. They more than doubled UK’s yardage output (402-173) in a 24-7 win in Lexington as 11-point favorites. UF got a career-high 176 rushing yards from Matt Jones, who scored on a two-yard run and also had three catches for 20 yards. In his first career start, Tyler Murphy completed 15-of-18 passes for 156 yards and one TD. He also produced 36 rushing yards and one score on seven totes. UF leads the SEC and is eighth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 12.8 points per game. The Gators are second in the country in total defense, limiting foes to 202.5 yards per contest. Arkansas (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) hung tough against Texas A&M before dropping a 45-33 decision. The Razorbacks got the money as 13.5-point underdogs. QB Brandon Allen, who had missed a 28-24 loss at Rutgers the previous week due to a shoulder injury, wasn’t expected to face the Aggies until his status was upgraded to ‘probable’ late Friday. Allen threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns, but he was intercepted twice. Alex Collins rushed for 116 yards and one TD on 14 carries. For the season, Allen has an 8/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in four games. Collins, a freshman RB out of Miami, leads the SEC in rushing with 597 yards. He has run for three TDs and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Arky senior DE Chris Smith leads the SEC in sacks with six. Since joining the SEC in 1992, the Hogs have lost all eight head-to-head meetings against UF. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Maryland at Florida State
As of early Monday afternoon, most spots had FSU (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) favored by 15. The Seminoles failed to cover the number for the first time in Saturday’s 48-34 win at Boston College as 23.5-point road favorites. BC raced out to a 17-3 lead before Jameis Winston threw three second-quarter TD passes, including a 55-yard bomb to Kenny Shaw on the final play of the first half. Winston threw for 330 yards and four TDs against the Eagles, while also rushing for a team-high 67 yards. A redshirt freshman, ‘Famous’ has a 12/2 TD-INT ratio and two rushing TDs for the year. Maryland (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has had two weeks to prep for FSU following its 37-0 win over West Va. The Terrapins are also getting stellar QB play from C.J. Brown, who has connected on 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,043 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. Brown has rushed for 283 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.3 YPC. Brown has one of the country’s best WRs in Stefon Diggs, who has 18 catches for 400 yards and three TDs. Maryland is 5-5 ATS as a road underdog during Randy Edsall’s tenure, while the ‘Nolews are 13-8 ATS as a home favorite on Jimbo Fisher’s watch. FSU has won six in a row over Maryland, going 4-2 ATS. The ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0 for FSU, 2-2 for Maryland. Kickoff is slated for noon Eastern on ESPN.
Ole Miss at Auburn
As of early Monday afternoon, most books had Ole Miss (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) installed as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ The Rebels are coming off a 25-0 loss at Alabama as 14.5-point underdogs. They kept ‘Bama out of the end zone in the first half, trailing just 9-0 at intermission. But UM couldn’t get anything going offensively and were held to merely 205 yards of total offense. Since Hugh Freeze took over, Ole Miss still maintains a 7-2 spread record in nine games played away from Oxford (8 road, 1 neutral). Auburn (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) had an open date after suffering its first loss at LSU by a 35-21 count. Gus Malzahn’s team is led by RB Tre Mason, who has rushed for 338 yards and four TDs. AU has won all three of its home games this year, going 1-2 ATS. The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for AU, 3-0 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the Rebels’ three road assignments this season. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West adversaries. ESPNU will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Washington at Stanford
As of early Monday afternoon, most spots had Stanford (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Cardinal dealt out another woodshed beating Saturday in Seattle, where it pounded Washington St. 55-17 as 9.5-point favorite. Kevin Hogan led the way by throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. Hogan has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio. Stanford All-American OG David Yankey didn’t make the trip to Seattle due to a personal matter. His status for the Huskies remains in question. The Cardinal owns a 7-8 spread record as a home favorite under David Shaw. Washington (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) cruised to a 31-13 win over Arizona as an 8.5-point home favorite. Bishop Sankey stole the show with 161 rushing yards and one TD on a career-high 40 carries. Keith Price threw a pair of TD passes for the Huskies. Price has a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. UW has a 7-11 ATS mark in 18 games as a road underdog during Steve Sarkisian’s five-year tenure. When these teams met last year, Washington captured a 17-13 win as a 6.5-point home underdog. Sankey was the catalyst with 144 rushing yards and one TD. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for Stanford. The ‘under’ is 3-1 for UW, 1-0 in its lone road game. ESPN will have the telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
Michigan State at Iowa
As of early Monday afternoon, most betting shops had Iowa (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) tabbed as a 1.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have won four consecutive games since dropping a 30-27 heartbreaker to No. Illinois in their season opener. They started Big Ten play this past Saturday with a 23-7 win at Minnesota as 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Kirk Ferentz’s squad generated 464 yards of total offense and limited to Gophers to just 165 yards. Mark Weisman ran for a game-high 147 yards. Iowa is sixth in the nation in total defense in seventh in stopping the run. Michigan State (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for Iowa following a 17-13 loss at Notre Dame. Like Va. Tech and Florida, the Spartans have an elite defense but a shaky offense. Mark Dantonio’s team is No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing only 187.8 yards per game. If Sparty remains a road ‘dog in this spot, it is 8-6-1 ATS in such situations under Dantonio. Iowa is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings against Michigan St. The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Hawks, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for Michigan St. ESPN2 will have television coverage at noon Eastern.
6-1 Sat., 14-2 Run, +1,061 TY
4-1 L5 Picks, 9-3 L3 Saturdays
7-1 Guarantees, 14-7 Picks TY
6-1 Last 7 College FB Picks
7-1 Over/Unders This Year
6-2 L8 Picks, 7-1 Guarantees TY
2-0 Y'day, 5-0 Fridays This Year
7-3 L2 Saturdays, 11-3 L14 Picks
3-1 Saturday, 4-0 Guarantees TY
3-1 L4 G-Plays, 4-1 Fridays TY
7-0 L7 G-Plays, 5-2 Totals TY
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