Inside The Stats
October 3, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
Heading into last week’s Arizona State-USC showdown, both the Sun Devils and the Trojans had held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark this year.
When the final dust settled, each team surprisingly managed to gain season-high yards in the contest.
It not only sent USC packing but ASU also stuck the final fork in Lane Kiffin’s career with the Trojans.
Thus, heading into the month of October, six college football teams remain that have held EVERY opponent to a season-low yardage mark.
They include: Arizona, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Washington.
On the flip, New Mexico State has allowed season-high yards in every game.
It should also be noted that Fresno State has surrendered season high yards in each of its three games verse FBS opponents this year as well.
Freshen Up - Again
Last week our ‘Smart Box’ examined the benefit of backing college football teams playing with a week of rest in Game Four of the season when off a win in Game Three.
Following a 3-0 ATS performance by last week’s qualifying teams (Buffalo, Oregon and Central Florida), we thought it would be wise to revisit the sagacious square once again this week.
To recap, our powerful database instructs us to ‘Play On’ these reinvigorated home teams when taking the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season as they now a super-strong 73-33-1 ATS in these games since 1980.
This week finds Baylor, Kansas and Memphis playing with renewed confidence.
When bringing these rested Game Four hosts in with a measure of revenge, they rocket to 27-9 ATS. All three of the aforementioned teams will be looking to avenge losses from previous meetings this week!
And if they dress up as either a favorite or as a dog of 10 or less points, they zoom to 21-4 ATS.
With that we expect Baylor will be loaded for ‘bear’ this Saturday.
Smoke And Mirrors
We enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.
We call it winning ‘inside-out’, or with smoke and mirrors.
College football teams playing this week who won the game but lost the stats in their previous game include: Kansas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rice, Utah and West Virginia.
In the NFL, the ‘inside-out’ winners included: Detroit, New England, Seattle and Tennessee.
Note: The Seahawks were out yarded by 206 yards in their win over the Texans.
After four week in the NFL, the oddsmakers have done a good job with the Over/Under totals. There have been 32 OVERS and 31 UNDERS.
From our NFL Totals Tipsheet, here is the weekly breakdown …
Week One: 8-8 O/U
Week Two: 8-8 O/U
Week Three: 7-9 O/U
Week Four: 9-6 O/U
From a league perspective, the best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 OVER.
The best UNDER situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 UNDER.
Stat Of The Week
Since joining the Big 10, Penn State is 1-16 ATS in its first conference game when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season.
14-2 L16 Totals, 9-1 Sun., 21-7 L28
13-3 G-Play Run, +1,095 TY
5-2 Sunday, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
9-1 Last 10 NFL Guarantees
4-1 Sunday, 10-4 L14 G-Plays
5-2 Sunday, 10-3 L13 Totals
10-3 L3 Sundays, 28-14 NFL Run
6-1 Thursdays TY, 13-6 L19 GPlays
4-2 Sunday, 4-1 G-Plays TY
9-4 Last 13 Guaranteed Plays
3-0 L3 Thurs., 10-5 L15 Picks
6-2 Last 8 NFL Guarantees
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