Friday's Betting Notes
October 3, 2013
By Brian Edwards
Editor's Note: Brian Edwards has started to heat up in college football, producing a 10-3 (77%) record. Don't miss out on Week 6 Winners on VegasInsider.com!
**Brigham Young at Utah State**
--As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing Utah St. (3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) as a six-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points. Gamblers can back the Cougars to win outright for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). For first-half wagers, the Aggies are favored by 3.5 with a total of 28.5.
--Utah St. went on national television last Friday and thumped San Jose St. 40-12 as a 10-point road favorite. Chuckie Keeton completed 29-of-42 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for 52 yards and another score. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 62-point total.
--Keeton is enjoying another remarkable season. The junior QB has a 17/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with a pair of rushing scores. For his career, Keeton has a 55/12 TD-INT ratio and 14 rushing TDs.
--BYU (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is coming off a 37-10 win over Middle Tennessee as a 23-point home ‘chalk.’ The 47 combined points went ‘under’ the 59-point tally. Without two of its best offensive players in RB Jamaal Williams (concussion) and WR Cody Hoffman (suspension), sophomore QB Taysom Hill led the way with 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. He also completed 14-of-19 throws for 177 yards.
--Hill has rushed for a team-high 565 yards and six TDs, averaging 8.6 yards per carry. He hasn’t been as effective through the air, connecting on just 40.6 percent of his passes for 741 yards. Hill has only one TD pass compared to four interceptions.
--Williams will return to the lineup against the Aggies after sustaining a concussion in a 20-13 home loss to Utah two weeks ago. He has rushed for 378 yards with a 5.0 YPC average. Hoffman will also be back following a one-game suspension. He missed the season opener against Virginia with a hamstring strain, too. Therefore, Hoffman has made only 10 catches for 171 yards and hasn’t been into the end zone yet. Obviously, that’s nowhere near the pace he set in 2012 with 100 catches.
--As a road underdog during Bronco Mendenhall’s nine-year tenure, BYU owns a 10-6-1 spread record.
--Utah St. has compiled a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games.
--BYU is fourth in the nation in rushing with a 307.2 YPG average. The Cougars are ranked 21st in total offense, but they score only 26.5 PPG (81st nationally). BYU gives up only 17.5 PPG (27th).
--Utah St. is scoring at a 40.4 PPG clip. The Aggies surrender 17.0 PPG.
--The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Utah St. this year, 1-0 in its only home contest. The ‘under’ is 3-1 for BYU, 1-0 in its lone road assignments.
--When these schools met in Provo last year, BYU captured a 6-3 win but failed to cover the number as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Aggies have taken the cash in five straight head-to-head meetings.
--The ‘under’ has cashed in six consecutive head-to-head matchups between these in-state rivals.
--Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College network.
**Nevada at San Diego State**
--As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had San Diego St. (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 57. Bettors can back the Wolf Pack on the money line for a +180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).
--Rocky Long’s team got off to an inauspicious start when it dropped its season opener to Eastern Illinois by a 40-19 count as a 14-point home favorite. The Aztecs were disappointing in Week 2 as well, getting drilled 42-7 at Ohio St. as 28.5-point underdogs. SDS came off an open date in Week 4 and earned its first spread cover in a 34-30 loss to Oregon St. as a seven-point home underdog. Then last week, SDS got its first win but failed to cover in a 26-16 triumph over New Mexico St. as a 16-point road ‘chalk.’
--Nevada (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) has won its first two Mountain West Conference games in back-to-back fashion. The Wolf Pack collected wins over Air Force (45-42) and Hawaii (31-9) after taking a 62-7 beatdown at Florida St. in Week 3. They also got taken behind the woodshed in a 58-20 loss at UCLA in the season opener.
--In fairness to Brian Polian’s first team at Nevada, we should note that starting QB Cody Fajardo didn’t play against the Seminoles due to sprained knee. After missing a pair of games, Fajardo made his return last week against Air Force. He threw three TD passes and ran for a pair of scores. Fajardo torched the Falcons for 389 passing yards and 81 yards on the ground. For the season, he has completed 70.1 percent of his throws with a 5/0 TD-INT ratio. Fajardo has 223 rushing yards and five TDs on just 41 carries for a 5.4 YPC average.
--When Ryan Katz was injured last season, Adam Dingwell started the last five games for San Diego St. at QB. He was the starter to begin 2013 but after being intercepted five times without throwing a TD pass in the first two games, Dingwell was benched. In the last two outings, juco transfer Quinn Kaehler has proven to be more effective. His 3/3 TD-INT ratio isn’t elite by any means, but Kaehler has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 696 yards.
--San Diego St. junior RB Adam Muema was the catalyst in a nine-win season last year, rushing for 1,458 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC. However, in 2013, Muema has been unable to produce. In fact, he has only 118 rushing yards and one TD on 51 totes. That has Muema with an abysmal 2.3 YPC average. The Aztecs have got to get him going if they have any hopes of turning their fortunes around.
--Since 2004, Nevada has limped to a 9-16 spread record in 25 games as a road underdog.
--San Diego St. is 6-7 ATS as a home favorite on Long’s watch.
--San Diego St. lost its best defensive player last week when LB Jake Fely went down with a broken foot. He had season-ending surgery on Wednesday.
--The ‘under’ is 3-1 for SDS, 1-1 in its home games. Meanwhile, Nevada has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2, 2-0 in its road contests.
--When these schools met last season, San Diego St. won a 39-38 decision in overtime as a seven-point road underdog. The 77 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 66.5-point total thanks to the extra session. Fajardo and Dingwell threw three TD passes apiece and neither signal caller was picked off.
--ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
5-2 Run, 10-5 G-Plays, +1,885 TY
11-5 L16, 34-12 Streak, +1,841 TY
3-0 Saturday, 7-1 L8, 12-3 L15
8-1 Win Streak, 14-5 L19 Totals
4-1 Picks, 13-3 G-Plays, +1,653 TY
18-6 L5 Saturdays, 59% +1,543 TY
14-3 Last 17 G-Play Streak
+2,757 NCAA FB Over/Unders TY
7-3 L10 Picks, 13-4 L17 G-Plays
39-14 L5 Saturdays, 48-24 Streak
19-9 L4 Saturdays, 30-16 L46 Run
8-4 Sat., 19-7 GPlays, +2,353 Totals
28-14 L6 Saturdays, 31-15 Streak
14-6 CFB Record L20 Picks
4-0 Saturday, 7-1 L8, +1,036 TY
4-2 Saturday, 11-4 G-Plays TY
11-4 L15 G-Plays, 17-9 L26 Picks
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