Hoke's move fails to pay off for Michigan
December 2, 2013
Many lauded Michigan coach Brady Hoke for having the guts to go for a 2-point conversion down 42-41 to Ohio State with 32 seconds left.
But the numbers suggest that Michigan's odds of winning were essentially the same had the Wolverines instead kicked the point after with the hopes of winning in overtime.
According to research by STATS, teams going for a 2-point conversion when down by one late in games were successful 13 of 24 times since 1996.
The Wolverines made it 13 of 25, or 52 percent, once Devin Gardner's pass was picked off. That's just 2 percent higher than Michigan's theoretical odds had it chosen to play for OT, which is designed to give each team an equal shot at victory.
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