Inside the Stats
December 5, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here is this week’s report. Enjoy the games.
When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.
This week finds a total of seven FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than two undefeated teams – Northern Illinois and Ohio State, along with four other squads each owning one loss on the season, namely Auburn, Fresno State, Michigan State and Missouri, dotting this year’s itinerary.
The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the scoreboard the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.
Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 9-19-2 ATS since the inception of these championship games.
This week finds Florida State, Northern Illinois, Ohio State and Stanford going up against tough odds.
Worse, when favored by 17 or less points, and playing off a win, these ’pips’ dip to 1-13-2 ATS in these title game roles.
The Huskies and the Buckeyes expectations may be as high as a Benjamin Franklin kite this week, but the likelihood of rewarding their backers is akin to catching lightning in a bottle.
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.
These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 25-32 ATS overall this season, including 20-22 in CFB and 5-10 in the NFL.
This week’s plays would be against…
NCAAFB: Memphis and Rutgers
NFL: Kansas City, N.Y. Jets and Tampa Bay
A 2-0 sweep last week moves the record on these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) to 41-13 OVER on season, including a mind-blowing 19-3 OVER the last seven weeks.
This week’s OVER achievers include:
Kansas City at Washington
Minnesota at Baltimore
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
N.Y. Giants at San Diego
Stat of The Week
Fresno State is 1-15-1 ATS in games after losing straight-up as a favorite.