Win Totals to Watch
August 26, 2014
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We've looked over the entire NCAA schedules, rosters etc...and uncovered a few future bets to make before the season kicks off. Below is our best 'over' and ' under' bet for season total wins in college football.
OVER 5.5 Indiana
Indiana has seen steady improvement the past three seasons going from just one win in 2011 to four in 2012 and five wins last season. Last year heading into the season the Hoosiers featured 19 returning starters from the previous roster and most of those were juniors who again return in 2014. Indiana returns 8 starters on offense this season which includes their part-time starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.
Sudfeld completed 60% of his pass attempts and threw for over 2,500 total yards last season and should step in immediately for departed Tre Roberson. Indiana won't have problems scoring or moving the football as their offense ranked 11th in the nation last season overall and were 22nd in scoring at 35.3PPG.
Defense was another story though as the Hoosiers were one of the worst in the country but expect improvements on that side of the ball with 9 returning starters. Indiana was favored in 6 games last season and they won five of those but could have won all six if it weren't for a few bad breaks against Minnesota.
This will be head coach Kevin Wilson's fourth season at the helm in Bloomington so these are all players he recruited and has mentored in his tenure. According to our preseason power ratings Indiana could be favored in as many as seven games this season and we feel they'll win six or more.
UNDER 8 Louisville
Louisville was a big surprise in 2013 when they nearly pulled off an undefeated season by going 12-1 overall which included a bowl win over Miami. Louisville finished the season with the 27th ranked offensive unit in terms of total offense after averaging 460 yards per game. Defensively the Cards ended the year with the best total defense in college football by allowing just 255YPG. The Cardinals do return 7 offensive starters from last year's unit but don't have starting QB Teddy Bridgewater who was drafted in the first round by the Minnesota Vikings. Bridgewater will be sorely missed this season and extremely hard to replace. Teddy threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season by completing 303 of 427 pass attempts (ridiculous 71%) which included a 31 to 4 TD/INT ratio.
Defensively the Cardinals were statistically one of the best in college football last season but they only return 4 starters on that side of the football in 2014. Again, statistically Louisville was a very good football team last year but take a minute to consider who they played. They faced the 103rd toughest schedule last year with just four decent teams in Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston and Miami so their impressive statistics are very misleading. Now they head into this season with a new/old head coach and system with Bobby Petrino, an inexperienced QB and move to a much tougher conference in the ACC.
In fact, the Cardinals will play one of the toughest schedules in the country this season which includes Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame who are all Top 30 teams. Louisville on the other hand is just outside of our preseason Top 50 rankings and not nearly as talented as they were in 2013. With all things considered we expect them to take a step back in 2014 and win 8 or less games in the regular season.
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