Inside the Stats - Week 11
November 8, 2017
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's pro and college football selections can be purchased weekly on VegasInsider.com.
Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.
Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.
This week includes:
College Football: Florida State, Kansas State
NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins
PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST
Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.
Play On ITS teams: Alabama 8-1, Central Florida 8-0, Georgia 9-0, LSU 8-1, Michigan 8-1, Michigan State 8-1, Oklahoma 9-0, Oklahoma State 8-1, South Florida 9-0, Toledo 8-1, Washington 8-1, Washington State 9-1 and Wisconsin 9-0.
Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-8-1, East Carolina 1-7-1, Kent State 1-8, Kentucky 1-8, Rutgers 1-8, and UTEP 1-8.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY
From this week’s MIDWEEK ALERT it’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.
The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Five, as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.
Positive Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas State +100, Temple +128
Negative Game Five Out Net Stats: Clemson -116, Duke -140, Georgia Tech -145, Kansas State -115, Maryland -100, Navy -101, Oregon -104, Rutgers -103
Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.
College Football: Duke 0-5, Kansas State 0-6, Navy 0-4, Texas A&M 0-4, Tulane 0-4
NFL: New York Giants 0-5, New York Jets 0-3
One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.
When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.
With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:
Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 5, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.
Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, Tulsa 4, UL Lafayette 4, UL Monroe 5.
Keep in mind that season-lows are season-lows, and season-highs are season-highs. It doesn’t matter against whom they were recorded.
STAT OF THE WEEK
The success of the Jacksonville Jaguars this season can be largely attributed to its top ranked rush offense. The real strength of the team, though, is a defense that has surrendered season-low yards in five games, including sub 200-yard efforts on three occasions, more than any other team in the league.
20-5 Streak, 71% +2,769 Overall
17-5 Run, 7-1 Totals, 63% +2,505
4-0 G-Plays, 14-4 Picks, +1,748 TY
9-3 L12, 23-9 Run, 13-2 G-Plays
4-0 L4, 18-8 Picks, 16-5 Totals
9-2 L11 Picks, 61% +1,345 TY
31-14 L45 G-Plays, 3-1 L4 Totals
19-8 Picks, 4-1 G-Plays, 12-5 Totals
12-5 G-Plays, 36-21 Run, +1,442
9-4 L13 G-Plays, 22-12 L34 Picks
4-1 L5 Picks, 15-7 G-Plays, +1,497
5-0 G-Plays, 4-1 Totals, 9-4 Picks
4-1 Picks, 9-3 G-Plays, +1,093 TY
10-3 This Month, 22-10 L32 G-Plays
30-15 Record L11 Saturdays
6-1 L7 College Guarantees
7-2 L9 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Picks
13-6 L19 G-Plays, 4-2 L6 Selections
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