Inside the Stats - Week 12
November 17, 2017
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's pro and college football selections can be purchased weekly on VegasInsider.com.
Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.
Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:
College Football: Baylor, Wyoming
PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST
Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.
Play On ITS teams: Alabama 9-1, Central Florida 9-0, Georgia 9-1, LSU 9-1, Oklahoma 10-0, Oklahoma State 9-1, South Florida 9-0, and Wisconsin 9-0.
Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-9-1, East Carolina 1-8-1, Kent State 1-9, Rutgers 1-9, and UTEP 1-9.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY
It’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats. The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Five, as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.
Positive Game Five Out Net Stats: Temple +111
Negative Game Five Out Net Stats: Duke -119, Georgia Tech -111, Kansas State -104, Oregon -104
Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.
College Football: Iowa State 0-3, Florida 0-3, Florida Atlantic 0-3
NFL: Kansas Citry Chiefs 0-4, L.A. Clippers 0-3
One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season. When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.
With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:
Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 4, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.
Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, UCLA 4, UL Lafayette 5, UL Monroe 5.
On the NFL side of things…
Season-lows: Carolina Panthers 4, Jacksonville Jaguars 4
Season-highs: New York Giants 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
STAT OF THE WEEK
If the playoffs were to begin this week Buffalo would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor’s 91.4 QB Rating is better this season than Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, and Cam Newton, yet not strong enough to impress the Buffalo brass.
2-0 Sat, 12-3 Run, 6-0 G-Plays
4-2 Saturday, 8-1 L9 Totals
2-0 Sat, 47-26 Saturdays, +1,466
5-0 L5 G-Plays, 10-6 L2 Saturdays
9-3 L12 Picks, 60% +1,585 TY
4-2 Saturday, 5-0 L5 Totals
11-4 L15 Picks, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
6-3 L9 Picks, +1,286 This Year
7-1 G-Play Run, +1,126 TY
27-12 L39 Picks, 60% +982 TY
10-5 L10 Saturdays, 61% +1,018 TY
9-3 L12 G-Plays, 19-9 L28 Totals
14-5 CFB Streak, 4-2 Guarantees
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 11-5 L16 Totals
7-2 L9 NCAA FB Guarantees
3-0 L3 Totals, 5-1 L6 Guarantees
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