Post-Mortems: Power-5
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Group of 5
North Carolina at Miami (-18/55.5): Head coach Mark Richt played possum about it but most expected N’Kosi Perry would start. The surprise was that Malik Rosier never even got in despite the game winding up a blowout. Perry was picked off for a second straight game but has otherwise sparked the Canes offense and will lead a confident group into the rivalry game with FSU. Miami The Tar Heels got the elusive Chazz Surratt back from suspension and threw him out there after Nathan Elliott fumbled three times. Surratt threw three picks, so Tar Heels’ head coach Larry Fedor will have to decide on a quarterback during their bye week.Result: Miami 47-10. ATS: Favorite/Over
UCLA at Colorado (-9/57): Chip Kelly had projected starting QB Wilton Speight back for the first time since he left the season opener, but true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson still played every snap of this loss despite winding up just 17-for-35 and continuing his rollercoaster ride. It sounds like we’ll see some type of rotation going forward since Kelly is being coy about who will start against Washington. The Bruins did get a strong game out of RB Joshua Kelley, who led the team with 124 rushing yards on 12 carries despite not touching the ball at all the previous week. The Buffs dominated the second half as QB Steven Montez finished 22-for-26 in efficiently moving the offense again. He leads the nation in completion percentage (75.8) and can run an option effectively, knowing when he should hand off or call his own number, as he did in putting this game away. He’s elevating his profile. Result: Colorado 38-16. ATS: Favorite/Under
Temple at Boston College (-13/54): The Owls stressed out about missed tackles and drops, knowing that big plays like Ryquell Armstead’s huge day shouldn’t have been wasted. His 75-yard TD run to even the game was the first of four scores, but neither the defense nor QB Anthony Russo and his receivers did enough around him to help produce an upset. Despite the struggles, Russo will remain the starter despite senior Frank Nutile now returning to the fold. BC held on despite losing star RB A.J. Dillon in the second half after an ankle injury and ended up running a program-record 105 plays as it continues to play to its strengths, which is no longer defense. There’s still no word on the severity of Dillon’s injury but senior safety Lukas Denis will be back for the key N.C. State game after being ejected in the first half for targeting. Ben Glines filled in well for Dillon, taking advantage of an offensive line that has had their way with everyone but Purdue. Result: Boston College 45-35. ATS: Underdog/Over
Virginia Tech at Duke (-6.5/52): The Blue Devils had only been favored once in the previous 14 games against the Hokies, but the combination of QB Daniel Jones returning for Duke and Virginia Tech beginning life without Josh Jackson pushed this line to nearly seven points by kickoff. Few were counting on Kansas transfer Ryan Willis playing so well he’d earn ACC QB of the week honors after throwing for 322 yards and three scores. After getting burnt to a crisp by Old Dominion’s Blake LaRussa, the Hokies spoiled Jones’ return despite also being without top pass rusher Trevon Hill (dismissed). Safety Reggie Floyd, the secondary’s anchor, was all over the place and came up with a pick of Jones, while WR Damon Hazelton had a TD reception for a fourth straight game. Duke couldn’t get the ground game going at all and was outplayed up front at home. Virginia Tech bounced back in part thanks to the return of LT Christian Darrishaw, S Divine Deablo and WR Tre Turner. Result: Virginia Tech 31-14. ATS: Underdog/Over
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (-28/65): The Yellow Jackets took all their frustrations from the past few weeks out on the orange-clad visitors, concentrating on shoring up pitches and cleaning up the disastrous turnovers that were such an issue throughout September. TaQuon Marshall threw for 160 yards on just five passes, hitting the big plays that have been missing. Consider the opposition, but there’s no question Georgia Tech needed a feel-good day to get it refocused for ACC play. B-Back Jordan Mason scored twice and could ultimately emerge as the answer to replacing KirVonte Benson’s production with the junior standout out for the season. WR Scott Miller returned to form for Bowling Green and was one of the bright spots. Jarrett Doege threw for 305 yards but was picked off twice and the Falcons were too one-dimensional to seriously compete in Atlanta, averaging less than 2 yards per carry. Result: Georgia Tech 63-17. ATS: Favorite/Over
Michigan (-14.5/46.5) at Northwestern: The Wolverines flirted with disaster in Evanston, falling behind 17-0 as Pat Fitzgerald had his team ready to play despite top rusher Jeremy Larkin’s being forced to retire due to a medical condition and QB Clayton Thorson off to a disappointing start in his senior season. Northwestern took advantage of Michigan taking its sweet time settling in and Thorson starting hot, connecting on 8-of-9 passes to produce 10 first-quarter points. Michigan registered six sacks pitched a second-half shutout for the first time all season and moved up to the No. 1 spot in the nation in total defense (232.6), allowing just 97 yards over the final three quarters after allowing 105 in the first. Karan Higdon was force-fed 30 carries and helped control possession, while Shea Patterson came through down the stretch to post his first fourth-quarter comeback in Maize and Blue. It was a sloppy game for the Wolverines, who trailed almost the entire day and came nowhere near covering due to bad penalties and inefficiency in the red zone. Result: Michigan 20-17. ATS: Underdog/Under
Iowa State at TCU (-11.5/45): Frogs coach Gary Patterson was satisfied with the result despite the fact the game was closer than it should’ve been, but the lack of consistency on offense that helped lead to Ohio State’s comeback and a defeat at Texas was prevalent again. Making matters worse, QB Shawn Robinson injured his shoulder on TCU’s final fourth-quarter scoring drive, which could limit him in the team’s next game on Oct. 11. Darius Anderson was held to just 42 yards on 16 carries by a sturdy Cyclones defense that gave a team chance to pull off this upset. David Montgomery finished with 101 rushing yards, but Iowa State picked up just 79 yards through the air as top receiver Hakeem Butler was held to just two catches and QB Zeb Noland finished just 14-for-28. Kyle Kempt will miss another game this weekend, so it will be interesting to see if true freshman Brock Purdy gets in there in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. Result: TCU 17-14. ATS: Underdog/Under
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-19.5/56.5): The Razorbacks put together their best football game of the entire month in hanging around with the Aggies in the second half after falling behind 17-0, which is a good sign that Chad Morris hasn’t lost his team after a disastrous start. Rakeem Boyd continues to be the top option for Arkansas’ offense and had 80 yards from scrimmage, while QB Ty Storey showed some flashes as he settles in as the unquestioned starter. A&M got a kickoff return TD from Jashaun Corbin to open the game and an RB from Trayveon Williams to close out their first drive, then closed up shop until putting the game away on another Williams TD run with just 5:03 left. Kellen Mond played his worst game since being named Jimbo Fisher’s QB to start the season, throwing a pair of costly picks and failing to find the end zone through the air. Mond has struggled outside Kyle Field, so it will be interesting to see if he can regain his early form with ranked Kentucky visiting College Station. The former No. 1 dual threat QB recruit in the nation has been intercepted four times over the last two games to open SEC play. Result: Texas A&M 24-17. ATS: Underdog/Under
West Virginia (-3.5/75.5) at Texas Tech: The Mountaineers used a 28-point first quarter to coast to a victory in Lubbock, knocking out prolific Tech freshman QB Alan Bowman in the first half after harassing him relentlessly. He left with a partially collapsed lung and back up Jett Duffey led a comeback by making one play after another with his legs. Only a pick-six that he threw in the fourth quarter to West Virginia’s Keith Washington kept this from becoming dangerously tight for the visitors, who took advantage of Texas Tech’s decision to keep David Sills from getting going by featuring Marcus Simms and Gary Jennings. Opponents are going to have that problem against Will Grier all season if he continues to put the ball wherever he wants to. Kennedy McCoy added 88 yards, 77 on the ground, helping the Mountaineers flourish against a defense that had held Oklahoma State scoreless in the second half the week prior. Ironically, the Red Raiders defense dominated in the final 30 minutes here, pitching another shutout. Result: West Virginia 42-34. ATS: Favorite/Over
Rice at Wake Forest (-28/66.5): The Demon Deacons came up short in upset bids of Boston College and Notre Dame but have accomplished one goal prior to next week’s bye. Coach Dave Clawson found his quarterback. Freshman Sam Hartman keeps looking sharper and sharper and his 15 of his 17 passes for 241 yards and four scores in complete dismantling Rice. Greg Dortch caught every one of the TD tosses and hauled in 11 catches for 163 yards, doing the heavy lifting with tag-team partner Scotty Washington sidelined. My hunch is that Washington will attempt to play against Clemson. Redshirt freshman Christian Beal-Smith led the Deacs with 60 rushing yards and offers a different option in the RB rotation. Rice RB Austin Walter leads the country in all-purpose yardage per game but could definitely use more help. QB Shawn Stankavage threw for just 103 yards on 17 completions and accomplished little against Wake’s first-teamers. Result: Wake Forest 56-24. ATS: Favorite/Over
Oklahoma State (-17.5/56) at Kansas: The Jayhawks moved the ball effectively all afternoon in Lawrence, often doing so in chunks. Pooh Williams and Steven Sims, Jr. often left Cowboys defenders in the dust. It just didn’t happen enough for Kansas to seriously threaten, especially since OSU did have great performances from the likes of DE Jordan Brailford, who finished with three sacks and five tackles for loss. Taylor Cornelius threw for 312 yards and four scores while keeping plays alive with his feet, but Justice Hill drove the bus with his 31 carries and 189 yards. Former walk-on Landon Wolf finished with a team-high six receptions for 116 yards in his first career start upon replacing Jalen McCleskey after his eye-opening transfer. Top tackler Calvin Bundage stayed back in Stillwater to heal an injury and was replaced well by Devin Harper and Justin Phillips, but he's expected back against Iowa State.Result: Oklahoma State 48-28. ATS: Favorite/Over
Indiana (-14.5/51) at Rutgers: Although they were never really in danger of losing since they scored 24 unanswered first-half points, the Hoosiers blew the cover with their second scoreless half of the season. RB Stevie Scott was held to just 58 rushing yards and couldn't get the game iced on the ground. Peyton Ramsey threw for 288 and one score while adding 51 rushing yards and a TD on the ground to take care of business, but IU is now 0-2 ATS on the road as it ventures in Columbus next week. Rutgers coach Chris Ash stuck with true freshman QB Art Sitkowski, who threw for 154 yards and seems likely to remain at the helm as the Scarlet Knights continue a slow rebuild.Result: Indiana 24-17. ATS: Underdog/Under
Louisiana-Lafayette at Alabama (-49/69): The Crimson Tide led 49-0 at the break and scored the first points of the second half, so it's wild that they failed to cover in a game where they could've realistically scored 77-plus. Tua Tagovailoa completed all eight of his passes before giving way to Jalen Hurts and threw his last TD pass to make it 49-0 just before the break. The Ragin' Cajuns kept their starters in for four quarters, which doesn't make sense considering the physcial toll that takes on a young team, but first-year head coach Billy Napier was able to see top backs Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell burn 'Bama for 196 yards on 27 carries. Andre Nunez hit a TD pass to Ja'Marcus Bradley to pick up the cover and continue a streak that has seen each of the Crimson Tide's five opponents find the end zone through the air. Result: Alabama 56-14. ATS: Underdog/Over
Texas (-8.5/48.5) at Kansas State: The Longhorns continued to let the defense do the heavy lifting, keeping things simple for an offense that pumped the brakes at the break after getting out to a big lead. A 90-yard punt return from D’Shawn Jamison helped set the tone, while fellow true freshman Keaontay Ingram helped close the deal after K-State closed to within one possession. The young ‘Horns were led defensively by senior DE Charles Omenihu, who had two sacks and produced a safety to help keep K-State starter Alex Delton from findig a rhythm. Bill Snyder has had the misfortune of playing the wrong quarterback game after game since both Delton and Skylar Thompson have performed better coming off the bench in relief when the other struggles, really handcuffing the Wildcats. Texas won in Manhattan for the first time since 2002 and now heads to Dallas for the Red River Showdown knowing that Todd Orlando’s defense is playing with great confidence but about to face its toughest test yet. Result: Texas 19-14. ATS: Underdog/Under
Pittsburgh at UCF (-13.5/65.5): The Knights wanted to send a message against the only Power-5 school on this season’s schedule since their visit to North Carolina was canceled due to Hurricane Florence. That spelled trouble for Pitt since it was unable to hang with UCF’s pace in humid Orlando and didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter. Only an 85-yard punt return from WR Rafael Araujo-Lopes prevented 45 unanswered points to open game for explosive Central Florida, which got six total touchdowns (4 via pass, 2 on the ground) from Heisman Trophy candidate QB McKenzie Milton. Now the Knights have to root on a Panthers’ resurgence so that the win looks better on the resume. Result: UCF 45-14. ATS: Favorite/Under
Oregon (-2/58) at Cal: Cal sabotaged itself with five turnovers as the Ducks came into Berkeley and beat it at its own game. Oregon was able to do its damaged despite the absence of excellent DE Austin Faoliu due to an ankle injury as senior safety Ugochukwu Amadi picked off two passes and LB LaMar Winston Jr. added a scoop-and-score after Faoliu’s fill-in, Drayton Carlberg, forced a Brandon McElwain fumble via sack to continue his emergence. McElwain, a South Carolina transfer, played the bulk of the snaps ahead of redshirt freshman Chase Garbers, who has passed last year’s starter Ross Bowers on the depth chart. Nobody played well enough to take down the visitors from Eugene, who took command in the second quarter and coasted behind Justin Herbert and 100-yard rushing games from Travis Dye and CJ Verdell. Result: Oregon 42-24 ATS: Favorite/Over
South Carolina (-1/52) at Kentucky: Despite their impressive start featuring wins over Florida and Mississippi State, the Wildcats were a home underdog against a Gamecocks team that they had beaten four straight years. The defense created an early turnover and the offensive line pushed around a South Carolina defense that lacks the toughness we’re used to seeing from Will Muschamp-coached groups. Combined with Jake Bentley’s continued struggles, it’s no surprise that Kentucky made this look as easy as they did, racing out to a 24-3 edge at the break. The defense has made impressive strides that should have Matt House on the short list of programs seeking a head coach this January, as he continues to get the best out of seniors Josh Allen, Jordan Jones and Mike Edwards. RBs Benny Snell, A.J. Rose and QB Terry Wilson are keeping things simple by keeping the chains moving on the ground, but there are still challenges at Missouri and Georgia within the division where Kentucky will remain an underdog, not to mention this Saturday’s visit to Texas A&M. Result: Kentucky 24-10. ATS: Underdog/Under
Florida at Mississippi State (-7/50): Florida’s defense flexed significant muscle to help the Gators bounce back from a 6-3 halftime deficit. The Bulldogs squandered a pair of long first-have drives by settling for field goals and were punished over the final 30 minutes by getting little done. Nick Fitzgerald was harassed into an 11-for-28 night passing it at home and gained just 1.6 yards per carry in an anemic performance. Feleipe Franks isn’t going to inspire much confidence, but the best QB Dan Mullen inherited outplayed Mullen’s previous QB in Starkville, completing passes to 12 different. Even though Jordan Scarlett struggled, Lamical Perine and Dameon Pierce combined for 85 yards on 14 carries to help fuel the comeback. Perine, a junior who led the Gators in rushing last year, looks ready to take a step forward. Result: Florida 13-6. ATS: Underdog/Under
Stanford at Notre Dame (-4.5/53.5): If you’re into healthy debate subjects, consider whether this Fighting Irish win was more impressive than their Week 1 upset over Michigan. Shutting down Bryce Love after his first-quarter touchdown and keeping J.J. Arcega-Whiteside from doing too much damage against the Irish secondary were defensive objectives that were met with resounding success. Brian Kelly called it Notre Dame’s most complete win and was giddy about running the ball 55 times to largely control the game against the Cardinal. DT Jerry Tillery registered four sacks. Dexter Williams returned from suspension to run for 161 yards, helping make up for the absence of Jafar Armstrong. QB Ian Book made sure the Irish capitalized courtesy of four TD passes, connecting with Miles Boykin 11 times. The lone blemish for the Irish was losing senior left guard Alex Bars (knee), which will cause some reshuffling along an offensive line that lacks significant depth. Result: Notre Dame 38-17. ATS: Favorite/Over
Syracuse at Clemson (-24.5/65): After losing Trevor Lawrence to a first-half head injury, the Tigers looked to be in serious jeopardy of losing to the Orange for a second straight season. With Kelly Bryant announcing he’d transfer, remaining undefeated hinged on the ability of redshirt freshman Chase Brice to help pick up the pieces and lead a second-half comeback. An incredible pass to convert on fourth down en route to Travis Etienne’s go-ahead TD run is in the mix as perhaps the most important game of the Clemson season. Etienne is now the Tigers’ primary Heisman candidate after a 203-yard, three-touchdown game helped his team overcome a Syracuse defense that registered five sacks and an interception. Eric Dungey ran for two scores but wasn’t as accurate as he typically is through the air and failed to throw for a score. Ultimately, winding up with field goals instead of touchdowns cost ‘Cuse, which also couldn’t establish a conventional run game against Clemson’s monstrous front line and still gave itself a chance to leave Death Valley with a monumental upset. Instead, Clemson survived and will have Lawrence back for the Wake Forest game. Result: Clemson 27-23. ATS: Underdog/Under
Baylor at Oklahoma (-21.5/68.5): The Sooners disciplined Kyler Murray for arriving late to Friday’s practice, so Austin Kendall took the first snaps before handing back the reins. It took two plays for the A’s first-round pick from this past MLB draft to lead Oklahoma into the end zone, the first of six TD passes that produced a QB rating of 348.0 since he averaged 25.4 yards per completion. Murray finished with a career-high 432 passing yards and ran for another touchdown, showing off the same type of command of Lincoln Riley’s offense as reigning Heisman winner and top pick Baker Mayfield displayed. The Sooners have to like where they’re at entering the Red River Showdown. Baylor had Charlie Brewer throw 60 passes in the loss, which led to him being sacked six times. He did throw for 400 yards and has the receiving corps performing nicely. The Bears have scored on all18 trips they’ve reached the end zone, scoring touchdowns 14 times. Result: Oklahoma 66-33. ATS: Favorite/Over
Ohio State (-3.5/69.5) at Penn State: This lived up to billing as one of the games of the year in college football, only falling short in the scoring department considering the amount of points we expected here. While the scoring was lacking until the final quarter, the drama was there throughout. Penn State’s Trace McSorley was fantastic. Ohio State QB Dwyane Haskins could barely find a rhythm, opening 5-for-14 with a pick. Considering the Nittany Lions got a 93-yard TD pass to KJ Hamler, committed fewer penalties, ran the ball far better and had their house jumping, this was a devastating loss that could linger if James Franklin’s pledge to become elite doesn’t take hold immediately. Hamler was forced out of this game after being the victim of a targeting foul in the fourth quarter, so we’ll see what his status is going forward. Buckeyes safety Isaiah Pryor will miss the first half of this week’s Homecoming game vs. Indiana.Result: Ohio State 27-26. ATS: Underdog/Under
Florida State (-5/47) at Louisville: The Seminoles rallied to get over .500 after stumbling on the road to open the game, scoring on a 58-yard TD that came on a Deondre Francois’ slant that Nyqwan Murray took 58 yards for his second score. Francois threw for four touchdowns and finally did more than show flashes of his pre-injury form. With the Cardinals keying on keeping Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick from getting going, doing so successfully in holding that duo to just 55 yards on 21 carries, Francois was challenged to make winning throws and did so after A.J. Westbrook capped an excellent game by picking off Jawon Pass to get the ball back. “Puma” Pass threw for 306 yards and also looked more comfortable, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see both of these teams exhibit improvement and land in bowls over the next two months. FSU is getting much healthier up front with Landon Dickerson back and Jalen Williams on the cusp of doing so. Result: Florida State 28-24. ATS: Underdog/Over
Central Michigan at Michigan State (-28/45.5): The Spartans trailed 3-0 after another flat start but then took control over the middle quarters and were in position to cover as they opened the fourth up 31-3. Brian Lewerke ran in a couple of scores but failed to throw for one, getting picked off in the end zone by CMU’s top corner, Sean Bunting. RB L.J. Scott missed another game despite originally being expected to play, while WRs Darrell Stewart, Jr. and Jalen Nailor sidelined. Corners Josiah Scott and Josh Butler also didn’t play, so maybe it made sense that the Chips were able to make a comeback as the more aggressive team down the stretch, pulling off a flea-flicker and a halfback pass in addition to recovering an onside kick. Central Michigan head coach John Bonamego also stuck with junior Tommy Lazzaro under center and appears most comfortable with him running the offense. The Chippewas will be home for the next three contests.Result: Michigan State 31-20. ATS: Underdog/Over
BYU at Washington (-18/47.5): The Gamecocks were barely favored by the time this game kicked off since most of the "smart" money was on Vandy at home. The Commodores ended up losing their 10th straight against South Carolina just the same, and it wasn't even close. An inability to run the ball and QB Kyle Shurmur creating as many opporunities for the visitors via turnovers as he did for his own offense made this a laugher. Vandy head coach Derek Mason called it a "comedy of errors" but the only people chuckling were the ones who never bought into Vandy despite a solid showing in South Bend. SC WR Shi Smith scored on one long pass and set up another score with another catch so Jake Bentley has another weapon to work with as he looks to bounce back from a rocky early performance agaisnt Georgia. Result: Washington 35-7. ATS: Favorite/Under
Utah (-1.5/50) at Washington State: The Tigers didn't have to risk much offensively since it became pretty clear early that the Razorbacks weren't going to be able to move the football. Ty Storey came out, executed a run-based spread option that did little more thna kill time and took a beating. He helped work the clock but couldn't sustain drives and the defense ultimately wore down after holding Auburn to just 10 first-half points until the final minute before the break. Rakeem Boyd of "Last Chance U" fame did come up with over 100 yards of total offense, so we'll see if sticking with Storey and giving Boyd more opportunities will help an offense that has bogged down over the last 10 quarters to gain some traction. Auburn's offensive struggles have folks on the Plains upset, especially since the offensive line has looked unimpressive thus far. They won't be in danger against Southern Miss on Saturday, but the schedule will intensify the rest of the way. Result: Washington State 28-24. ATS: Underdog/Over
Oregon State at Arizona State (-22/64.5): The Beavers lost a 22nd straight road game early, falling behind 24-3 as Eno Benjamin scored three quick touchdowns. He added a fourth to put it away after the Sun Devils threatened to make the game competitive and finished with 312 rushing yards on 30 carries and an additional 27 yards on three catches. Counterpart Jemar Jefferson countered with 254 yards and two scores on the ground for the Beavers, who lost talented sophomore Isaiah Hodgins to a hamstring injury and now have question marks surrounding his availability in addition to that of top tailback Artavis Pierce and QB Jake Luton for this weekend’s home game against Washington State. Herm Edwards never called off the dogs, so Arizona State ended up covering with a 14-0 fourth-quarter edge that included a 41-yard TD pass from Manny Wilkins to N’Keal Harry with 3:30 to go. That delivered the goods for 'over' bettors too. Result: Arizona State 52-24. ATS: Favorite/Over
USC (-3.5/62) at Arizona: The Trojans dominated the first half, which given their collective unit, is a positive sign considering that they took a crowd out of the game on the road. Three fumbles opened the door wide enough to allow Arizona a frantic comeback that should’ve at least produced a cover after they scored on fourth down with 1:40 left, but kicker Lucas Havrisik blew the extra point to produce a memorable swing to a 3.5-point spread since the Wildcats’ final drive featured one wild rollercoaster ride. Khalil Tate still doesn’t look comfortable in the offense Kevin Sumlin and Noel Mazzone have put in place. ‘Cats RB J.J. Taylor followed up his breakout game by gaining just 50 yards on 18 carries, while counterpart Aca’Cedric Ware racked 173 yards and two scores in strengthening his grip on the primary role in USC’s running back by committee approach. Penalties, fumbles and occasional mistakes from freshman QB J.T. Daniels are obstacles that must still be overcome, but this USC team looks to be turning a corner entering an important bye week before attacking the second half of the schedule. Result: USC 24-20. ATS: Favorite/Under
Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com
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