Betting Recap – Week 5

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

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College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER	Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up	44-11
Against the Spread	25-30
WAGER	Home-Away
Straight Up	37-18
Against the Spread	27-28
WAGER	Totals (O/U)
Over-Under	23-31-1
YEAR TO DATE	Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up	294-50
Against the Spread	171-166-7
YEAR TO DATE	Home-Away
Straight Up	246-94
Against the Spread	159-174-7
YEAR TO DATE	Totals (O/U)
Over-Under	161-179-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Massachusetts (+8.5, ML +260) vs. Akron, 37-29
Houston (+8, ML +250) at North Texas, 46-25
Arkansas State (+7, ML +230) at Troy, 50-43
Arizona State (+4.5, ML +180) at California, 24-17

The largest favorites to cover

Syracuse (-37.5) vs. Holy Cross, 41-3
Florida (-33) vs. Towson, 38-0
Michigan (-27.5) vs. Rutgers, 52-0
Oklahoma (-27) vs. Texas Tech, 55-16

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Memphis topped Navy in an game on Thursday night, 35-23. The Midshipmen were leading the Tigers 20-14 at halftime, but the second half was a different story with the Tigers outscoring the Middles 21-3 in the final 30 minutes. It wasn't what would be called a bad beat, but the Tigers scored a 31-yard touchdown from Brady White to Damonte Coxie with 11:27 left to give the Tigers the cover and hit the number for over bettors. ... Cincinnati smashed Marshall, 52-14, hitting the 'over' (46.5) themselves. Luke Fickell's group is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with the only non-cover that 42-0 whitewashing at Ohio State on Sept. 7. The over was the first in four games for the Bearcats. ... Temple scored a nice win for the conference, topping Georgia Tech, 24-2. It was a little revenge against a Power 5 team, after UCF lost at Pitt, an ACC team, last week. ... SMU has quietly opened 5-0 SU/ATS. They wrecked South Florida by a 48-21 score. The Mustangs have rolled up 37 or more points in each of their five games, cashing the 'over' in all five outings.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Clemson left Kenan Stadium with a 21-20 victory over North Carolina. The Tar Heels scored a late touchdown and elected to go for two, coming up just short. The Tigers were outplayed for most of the game, but most good teams find a way to survive and advance. That's just what they did. ... Duke lost QB Daniel Jones to the NFL this past offseason, and they were expected to be rather middling. Ask Virginia Tech if that's accurate. The Blue Devils humbled the Hokies 45-10 in Blacksburg. Duke is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with their only loss to Alabama in their neutral-site opener. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row, too, as Duke has 41 or more points in each of the outings. ... The Blue Devils will welcome Pittsburgh in their next home game. The Panthers limped to a 17-14 win over FCS Delaware, perhaps a bit of a hangover after a huge win over UCF last week. To be fair, the Blue Hens were ranked No. 19 in the FCS rankings entering the week, so they're no slouch. Still, the Panthers were favored by four touchdowns. ... Those Vegas guys are pretty good sometimes. Syracuse was listed as a 37.5-point favorite over FCS Holy Cross. They ended up winning 41-3. Gordie Lockbaum wasn't walking through that door for the Crusaders today. ... Notre Dame was down at half to Virginia, but they bounced back at Georgia after their loss a week ago. The Irish have now covered three in a row after failing to cover by a point and a half in Louisville on Sept. 2.

BIG TEN

-- Penn State obliterated Maryland by a 59-0 count. Anyone holding an 'over' (59.5) ticket is likely none too pleased with the Terrapins. Since firing out of the box with 142 total points and a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in the first two games, the Terps are 0-2 SU/ATS while being outscored 79-17 in the past two. ... Michigan rebounded from their loss in Madison last week, thumping Rutgers, 52-0. The Wolverines outgained the Scarlet Knights 476-154 in total yards while picking up 28 first downs to 10. ... Wisconsin might have endured a bit of a hangover, too, after their big win over Michigan. The Badgers weren't pretty, especially with those throwback tan pants and 'UW' helmets, but they got it done 24-15 over Northwestern. The Wildcats have been a thorn in the side of Bucky over the years. ... Minnesota went to Ross-Ade Stadium and took care of Purdue by a 38-31 score to move to 4-0 SU. More importantly it was the first cover of the season for the Gophers (1-2-1 ATS). The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for Minny, too. ... Ohio State hammered Nebraska by a 48-7 score, moving to 4-0 ATS over the past four outings. Ohio State has scored 42 or more points in all five of their games.

BIG 12

-- It was a slow week in the Big 12, with a total of just four games, all conference battles, in action. Kansas was back to themselves, and that's not a good thing. TCU roughed up the Jayhawks 51-14, firing out to a 38-0 halftime lead and never looking back. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 ATS and the over/under is 2-2. One consistent thing about the Horned Frogs has been their offense, posting 34 or more points in each outing. They allowed 41 in their loss against SMU on Sept. 21, but they have allowed a total of 34 points in their other thee outings. ... Oklahoma hammered Texas Tech, 55-16. They fired out to a 17-0 start after the first quarter to set the tone early. Oddly enough, with a total of 71, this game pushed at most shops. The Sooners have now covered three in a row. ... Baylor edged Iowa State, 23-21, kicking a last-second field goal for the win. Matt Rhule's bunch is now 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS, covering both home games vs. FBS opponents.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic hit the road for Charlotte, and they partied like it was 2017. They won 45-27 in the Conference USA road opener, moving to 3-2 SU. The Owls have scored 41 or more points in three consecutive games, too, as the Lane Train is rolling again, halfway to bowl eligibility. ... Middle Tennessee got spanked 48-3 at lowa, as head coach Rick Stockstill is finding life to be difficult after his son graduated. The Blue Raiders were down 24-0 at halftime, and it obviously didn't get much better after that. The Blue Raiders covered the opener at Michigan, but they're 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS over the past three. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in four games for MTSU this season, as they have allowed 40 or more points in three of those contests, all against Power 5 schools, though. ... North Texas fell to Houston 46-25, as the Mean Green fell as six-point favorites at home.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo scored a nice win for the conference, topping BYU 28-21 at the Glass Bowl. They entered the fourth quarter down 21-14. It was actually their first win by seven or more points after entering the fourth quarter down by seven or more since Oct. 16, 1971 vs. Western Michigan (down 24-14, won 35-24), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. ... Speaking of Western Michigan, they topped rival Central Michigan 31-15 in Kalamazoo. Officially, this game was a push, as a majority of shops closed at 16. However, some might have gotten this as high as 17.5 and some might have laid just 15. This line differed by as many as two and a half points this week. ... Akron continues to struggle mightily, hitting rock bottom in a 37-29 loss at Massachusetts as 6.5-point favorites. The Zips are now 0-5 SU/ATS, and they have allowed at least 31 points in all five games this season. ... Miami-Ohio booted Buffalo, 34-20, as the 'over' (50) connected. The over is 13-5 in the past 18 for Buffalo, and 8-3 in their past 11 on the road. The over is 5-1 in Miami's past six overall. In this series, the over is 8-1 in the past nine in Oxford, and 6-1 in the past seven battles overall.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- New Mexico outlasted New Mexico State in a crazy 55-52 victory in Albuquerque. When the Lobos and Aggies hook up there are plenty of points sure to follow. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for UNM so far, as they have averaged 36.0 PPG on offense while yielding 46.3 PPG on defense. ... San Jose State scored a huge victory for their program, topping Arkansas by a 31-24 count. It was the first win against a Power 5 opponent since 2006 for the Spartans. The 'under' has cashed in all three games for San Jose State so far, ans they're a respectable 2-1 SU. The cover was their first of the season, too. ... Nevada posted a nice 37-21 road win over UTEP, moving to 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' is also 3-1 in four games for the Wolf Pack. ... Utah State earned the 23-17 victory at San Diego State to move to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. ... Boise State remained perfect at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS after topping Air Force on Friday night by a 30-19 score. After UCF's lost to Pitt, the Broncos are now likely the top Group of Five entrant.

PAC-12

-- There are no more unbeaten teams in the conference after California was tripped up 24-17 in Berkeley by Arizona State. The Bears lost starting QB Chase Garbers (shoulder) in the first half, and backup QB Devon Modster was a train wreck. The Bears will have issues at Oregon next week if Garbers isn't available, and he likely won't be. ... Washington has restored order after their loss to Cal earlier, dropping USC by a 28-14 count. Sure, the Trojans are down to their third-string QB due to injuries, but this one was closer than some thought. USC is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home, and 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. ... UCLA-Arizona was a tussle, as the Bruins lost QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (ankle) to an injury, while the Wildcats were already without QB Khalil Tate (lower body). The Wildcats hung on for the 20-17 win, but the Bruins covered for the second consecutive road game.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Texas A&M edged rivals Arkansas 31-27 in a neutral-site battle in Arlington, Tex. The Razorbacks did a good job after an embarrassing loss at home to San Jose State last week, but the results are the same. The Aggies improved to 3-2 SU, and 1-1 in the SEC, but they have failed to cover in each of the past two. ... Florida stepped out of conference for the 38-0 win over FCS Towson in a tune-up for Auburn next time out. ... Speaking of Auburn, they roughed up Mississipp State, and finally got the pass game going. ... Vanderbilt nipped Northern Illinois, 24-18, as the Huskies officially covered at most shops as a 6.5-point underdog. It was Vandy's first win in four games, but they're 0-4 ATS. ... Alabama paddled Mississippi by a 59-31 count in a high-scoring affair at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Rebels grabbed the cover, just their second in five outings this season. Howver, they're 2-0 ATS against SEC opponents.

SUN BELT

-- Texas State won for the second straight weekend, topping FCS Nicholls State 24-3. That doesn't sound terribly impressive, but Nicholls is ranked in the Top 25. ... Arkansas State outlasted Troy by a 50-43 count in the highest scoring game of the entire FBS weekend. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two games for the Red Wolves. ... Louisiana-Lafayette took care of Georgia Southern by a 37-24 score as the 'over' connected. With a total of 54 points on the board, the Ragin' Cajuns picked up a touchdown to push the total over, 37-23, flipping the total from under to over.

Bad Beats

-- On Friday night, Air Force worked over San Jose State, 41-24. The Spartans were down 41-10 with 7:48 left in regulation. They scored a TD with 3:51 left. Falcons bettors, on the right side all night, saw Air Force go for it on fourth and short and miss inside their own territory. The Spartans took over and backup QB Nick Nash hit TE Derrick Deese Jr. for a score with :52 left for the backdoor cover and bad beat. And under (56.5) bettors thought the TD with 3:51 was a bad beat. Nah. The line change inside the final minute was much worse.

-- Also on Friday, Duke scored a touchdown with 3:37 to go, already up 38-10, flipping the total from an under to an over. It wasn't a true 'bad beat', and you probably won't see this one on Scott Van Pelt, but it hurt just the same if you had the under. It looked great all night, with a total of just 27 points on the board with 5:56 to go in the third quarter.

-- In that NIU-Vandy game, with the Huskies down 24-10, the visitors scored a touchdown to make it 24-16, still not covering as 6.5-point underdogs. Much to the delight of side bettors of Northern Illinois, the coach elected to go for two - and got it. If you were laying the 6.5 with Vandy, you likely said a lot of bad words. Still, there was just under 12 minutes to change the result, but that was the final score of the game. Maybe it's not technically a bad beat, but it is a curious decision by the NIU coach at the least, and deserves honorable mention.