User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Soccer
Golf
Auto
Horses
More
Betting Tools

 
Bovi: Catching totals

New Sportsbook.ag customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

What can mowing the lawn teach us about sports wagering? If you have fallen prey to bouts of procrastination when it comes to keeping your grass pretty, it may get you an earful from your significant other or dirty looks from your neighbors. In the case of sports wagering, procrastination can relieve you of some of the other greenery, the kind that pays for nice vacations and fancy dinners.

The Purdue Boilermakers took on the Syracuse Orangemen Sunday. The ‘total’ opened at what I thought was a very reasonable 50 points, given Purdue’s potent offense featuring QB Kyle Orton. That coupled with an average Syracuse defense, and a Purdue stop unit that had lost what amounted to 36 of last years 41 QB sacks to graduation. The only question was the performance of the Orangemen’s two freshmen QB versus what I thought, and still believe, is a vulnerable Purdue defense.

As I have always represented, I am ‘on’ every game that I release on VegasInsider. I went 'over' the 50-point total on Friday morning feeling confident that the total was going to move up by game time. I released this total as a ‘play’ on VI. By early Sunday morning, the last 51’s were drying up as the number headed to the closing total of 53.5 or 54.

With Purdue ahead 44-0 late in the fourth quarter, Orton was out and Syracuse coach Paul Pasqualoni was just trying to end the misery when the Boilermakers miraculously scored a late touchdown and kicked the PAT. In this case, there was what is commonly referred to as ‘a middle.’ A middle takes place when the final score ends up between the opening line and the closing line. Because the game opened at 50, closed at 54, and ended up on 51, a middle occurred.

As the line movement indicates, the majority of money went ‘over’ as the total was driven higher by 3 1/2 to four points. Bookmakers raise or lower the line in accordance with the flow of the money that is wagered.

If you bet the ‘over,’ you either walked away feeling your oats or ready to toss your Sunday brunch depending on when your wager was made. Judging by the sharp move in the line, I have a suspicion that the majority of ‘over’ bettors lost their wagers and fell into the latter category. Not pretty.

Logic would suggest that situations like what happened leading up to and during the Purdue game is a 50/50 proposition, with much of it depending on luck. I would dispute that. If you are an astute handicapper, the money will invariably move with you, as it usually does when I make an early selection on an 'over/under.' That is precisely what occurred with the Purdue-Syracuse contest.

There is a lesson here, it is a long season. If you have an opinion on a 'total,' get down early. Totals are a great deal more volatile than sides and sometimes reflect huge swings. Don’t let procrastination turn winners into losers. It can get awfully expensive.

  
HEADLINES
Nelson: Auburn at Kansas State
Marshall: Tech Trends - Week 4
Sportsbook: Auburn faces tough road test
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
Rose: Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 3
Dobish: College Betting Recap - Week 3
FSU benches QB Winston for 1st half
WVU's Trickett gets shot at No. 4 Sooners
PSU RB Belton expects bigger run game
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NCAAFB College Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NCAAFB Hot Streaks
6-1 Sat., 13-2 Run, +961 TY
+923 Picks This Year
3-1 Saturday, 9-3 L3 Saturdays
7-1 Guarantees, 14-7 Picks TY
4-1 Record Saturday
5-1 Last 6 College FB Picks
7-1 Over/Unders This Year
3-1 Last 4 CFB Totals
5-2 Week 3, 6-1 Guarantees TY
7-3 Record Last 10 Picks
5-0 Fridays This Year
7-3 L2 Saturdays, 10-3 L13 Picks
3-1 Saturday, 4-0 Guarantees TY
4-1 Fridays This Year
6-3 Week 3 Record
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Totals TY
NCAA FB College Football Expert Sports Picks- Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
2014 CFB SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Chip Chirimbes + 961
Michael Black + 923
Stephen Nover + 600
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Chip Chirimbes + 595
Greg Smith + 390
Kevin Rogers + 380
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Chip Chirimbes 75 %
Stephen Nover 67 %
The SportsBoss 67 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Stephen Nover + 590
Pat Hawkins + 490
Bruce Marshall + 485
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Jimmy Boyd + 590
Stephen Nover + 480
Paul Bovi + 290
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Mike Rose + 366
Marc Lawrence + 290
The SportsBoss + 280
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!
VI Daily Fantasy NFL Perfect Lineup Contest