Look out! Or I should say, "Look ahead." While analyzing the game a team is playing each week, it’s also important to look at its opponent the previous week, and what’s on tap the following week.
For example, NFL and college teams have bye weeks, which allow coaching staffs extra time to prepare and players to spend two weeks resting their bodies and getting healthy. Teams can often have several edges with two weeks to prepare.
Other facets of scheduling are key games and cupcakes. Many times teams can look past an opponent when a more important game is on tap the following week. For example, this past weekend Memphis had an apparent easy game against cupcake Arkansas State. The talented Tigers were a 25-point favorite. Yet, Arkansas State got the cover easily, even leading 35-26 late in the game before Memphis rallied for a 47-35 win. Looking at the schedule, you see Memphis had its first Conference USA game on tap coming up against UAB. It’s clear the Tigers were more focused on UAB than Arkansas State – and nearly suffered a colossal upset.
Sometimes you can find coaches and players in local newspapers admitting they’re not 100% focused for an upcoming contest. Recently I recall a coach admitting that he and his staff were drawing up plays and watching game films of an opponent two weeks down the road, even though they were playing a different (and easier) team this week.
A few weeks ago Rutgers was off a big win over Michigan State. The following week they played Division 1AA New Hampshire, which – on the schedule – looks like a breeze of a game. Yet, the overconfident Scarlet Knights lost the game straight up. Clearly their focus was not on the field that afternoon. Other times you can anticipate when a coach might empty his bench late in a cupcake game when they have a far more important battle on tap the following week. For handicapppers, you can use the schedule to get a sense of when a backdoor cover is more likely.
Look at the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia had what is called a "sandwich" game against Marshall this past Saturday. Georgia rallied to beat South Carolina, then played Marshall before taking on SEC rival LSU this upcoming week. Non-conference Marshall was "sandwiched" between two key conference opponents. Georgia only scored 13 points against Marshall, and won 13-3 as a 19-point favorite. Again, it’s clear the Bulldogs were more interested in their two SEC games than they were in Marshall. This isn’t surprising, either, with LSU on deck. The defending national champs beat Georgia twice last season – two blemishes in an 11-3 season. Good handicappers know that you don’t always just look at this week’s games to find potential plays. Letdowns and look-ahead spots are very important when reviewing a match-up. Good luck as always...