Betting the Trends
September 18, 2006
By Tony Stoffo
Editor’s note: Tony Stoffo offers expert picks with analysis on a weekly basis in college football. Stop losing and start winning today. Click to win!
A new feature has been added to VegasInsider.com this year that I have to bring to your attention. The latest tool is the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends for each and every college and pro football game played each week.
As the former sports book manager at the Desert Inn I have to say this is a powerful tool to incorporate into your wagering strategies. Each game has betting trends with opening and current lines for the side, total and money-line available to the public.
There is one very strong wagering angle that can be found in these betting trend charts that I want you to analyze.
As a sportsbook manager it was my main objective each week to try and get equal action on both sides of a game so the house would win no matter which side won. However, at times this was a difficult thing to accomplish.
What worried me the most was when the sharp money in Las Vegas was sending in all of the action on one particular game, while the general public was betting the the other side of the game.
In these situations I would have around 70% of my action on one side, but have lopsided money on the other. So even though more than three quarters of my handle were on one side, I would have to alter the line in the other direction to try and even out the money.
This is where the VegasInsider.com Betting Trends Charts can become a very strong handicapping tool to incorporate into your weekly decision making arsenal.
If you want to see where the big money is coming in on a game, be sure to look for this scenario in the betting trends chards.
Anytime you see one-way action with a high percentage of bets on one side or total of a game, yet the sportbooks move the line in the opposite direction. Huh?
|Week 3: Michigan at Notre Dame|
||Betting Trends |
If you look at the chart from above you can see that “Joe Public” was all over the Irish, with 75% of all bets on Notre Dame.
However the oddsmakerers at Sportsbook.com dropped the line on Michigan from 7 to 6, despite only having 25% of its action on Michigan. As mentioned above, the goal of the book was to attract more money on Notre Dame, eventually hoping to achieve the goal of balanced action.
Obviously the sharps were sending in big money on Michigan and the sportsbooks needed to adjust accordingly. With this scenario the strong play would have been on Michigan and if you don’t know, the Wolverines blasted the Fighting Irish 47-21 with the outright victory.
These line movements do not always assure victory. However, like all other handicapping tools, it’s a must that you view these betting trends chards before making your final decision on any football game.
9-1 L10, 15-3 Run, 20-4 L10 Sat.
5-0 Sat, 19-8 L4 Saturdays, +1,285 TY
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 14-6 L20 Picks
8-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Over/Unders
5-2 Sat, 51-26 L10 Sat, +1,635 TY
12-4 L2 Sat., 15-6 Run, 7-3 G-Plays
18-8 L26 G-Plays, 13-4 Thursdays TY
13-7 L3 Weeks, 8-3 L11 G-Plays
3-1 G-Plays, 10-6 L2 Sat, 14-7 Run
+1,151 CFB Picks This Season
21-10 Run, 26-11 L8 Saturdays
4-0 Fri, 28-14 Run, 28-11 G-Plays
12-6 L18 G-Plays, +1,242 TY
3-1 Saturday, 4-1 L5 Guarantees
9-4 G-Plays, 23-12 Run, +1,220 TY
10-5 Saturday, 32-15 L47 Totals
5-2 Last Week, 12-4 L16 G-Plays
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