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Let’s take a look at the futures odds to win the national championship prior to the big game Thursday night. These numbers will move significantly for certain teams after tonight’s game and one team will be effectively eliminated.
Odds taken from BoDog as of November 1st.
Auburn: 20/1
The odds are steep on the Tigers in part due to poor recent play, struggling to beat Mississippi last week and losing at home to Arkansas in early October but mainly due to the difficulty that the Tigers will have winning the SEC. Since their lone loss came within the SEC West division they will need Arkansas to lose two games to earn a trip to the conference championship game and the automatic BCS spot. Arkansas still must play Tennessee and LSU so it is very conceivable that situation could play out but both games come at home for the Razors. For Auburn or any SEC team to make the title game a set of factors must play out. Auburn currently ranks sixth in the BCS standings but that placement does not illustrate the difficulty for Auburn to get to the championship game.
The Tigers will likely need the winner of the West Virginia/Louisville game to lose a game (moderately possible) or the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game to lose a game before that match-up (highly unlikely). Even if Arkansas would lose two games and the Big East would not produce an undefeated team, Auburn would need the USC/Cal winner to lose another game (very possible) as if either of those teams finished with one loss they would likely out-rank Auburn. So although 20/1 odds seems appealing for a team currently sitting sixth in the BCS standings it will be very difficult for Auburn to get there. Remaining games vs. Georgia and at Alabama will be challenges as well.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: At Alabama, November 25.
California: 30/1
There may be some value with Cal as a long shot to play into the championship game and have a chance at the title. The Bears have been the strongest team in Pac-10 play and the four remaining games are winnable. USC has lost already but Cal will need to beat them to win the conference title and obviously to have a shot at the national picture. The lone loss came in the opening game of the season at Tennessee so Cal has steadily climbed up the polls and there Computer Average in the BCS factoring system is very strong currently ranked #3. Cal sits 10th in the BCS standings currently but a number of teams ahead of them are assured of losing a game due to head-to-head match-ups among them so a late season climb is very possible. Although they lost, having played a one-loss Tennessee team that is highly ranked and could move higher will also help the cause.
If Cal wins out, including beating USC and having USC win its remaining games including knocking off Notre Dame there is a chance Cal could be the highest rated one-loss team. Cal would also need the Big East or the Big Ten to not have an undefeated team to get the title game spot but Cal would have a reasonable chance of out-ranking any SEC team, including ironically Tennessee, who they currently sit ahead of in the BCS standings. Texas would pose a potential problem in the rankings but the Longhorns do have some challenging games remaining and will have to play in the Big 12 title game. Beating USC could propel Cal higher in the ratings anyway as the Big 12 is not earning strong ratings this season.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: At USC, November 18.
Florida: 10/1
The Gators face just two remaining SEC games and both should be won barring a major meltdown. Having defeated Tennessee, the Gators in great position to win the SEC East and face Arkansas, Auburn, or possibly LSU in the conference championship game. The Gators could win the SEC and the automatic BCS spot but knock itself out of the national title picture as they will have to go to Tallahassee to play Florida State. The Noles are down this season but will be a difficult opponent in this state rivalry game. Florida currently sits 4th in the BCS standings as the top one-loss team but will face a game at FSU as well as a difficult SEC championship game leaving two games where loss-potential is there. If Florida wins out there is still the possibility another one-loss team could pass them as the Gators strength of schedule will take a significant drop the next three weeks and USC, California, or even a one-loss Michigan or Ohio State would potentially have the power ratings to be ahead of Florida when the season is done.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: At Florida State, November 25.
Louisville: 6/1
Although Louisville might have been worth a long shot wager at the beginning of the season there is no value here as even though the Cardinals will have a decent shot to get to the title game there are still many hurdles. Obviously beating West Virginia this week is critical, but the Cards must then face an undefeated Rutgers team the following week on the road with great let-down potential. Playing at Pittsburgh at the end of the season will not be an automatic win and even if the team would finish undefeated the numbers may not hold up against a strong one-loss team. Louisville currently sits fifth in the BCS standings but they have five games remaining in the regular season schedule. Beating West Virginia will help the rankings but the remaining games leave a schedule as a whole that may not hold up against an SEC team or a potential one-loss USC team that plays a very tough schedule down the stretch.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: West Virginia, November 2. (WIN)
Michigan: 4/1
The Wolverines have a clear path to the title game will control their own destiny, all they need to is beat #1 Ohio State on the road. This game has been very close in recent years and although OSU may appear to be the strongest team in the country, a win by Michigan would not be shocking. A loss would mean elimination for Michigan from the national title picture although a one-loss Ohio State team would make a compelling argument to have the national title game be a re-match if there is not another undefeated team that is worthy. Michigan is worthy of the low odds as they have one of the few sure paths to the title game, not having to face a conference championship game and with light games prior to the big showdown.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: at Ohio State, November 18.
Notre Dame: 22/1
The Irish’s play has not looked worthy of being considered a national title contender but the only loss came to a highly ranked Michigan team and with a big game at USC to close the season the schedule would warrant a high ranking should Notre Dame win out, which is very possible. Beating USC is obviously the key but Notre Dame’s ratings will be hurt by very weak opponents the next three games facing North Carolina, Air Force, and Army. Notre Dame will need some help but beating USC would knock out one of the other strong one-loss contenders. It is unlikely the Irish could surpass a one-loss SEC team but it is not all that unlikely that there may not be a one-loss SEC team. Passing the Michigan/Ohio State loser might be a problem, especially considering that Notre Dame lost badly to Michigan earlier in the season. Notre Dame would also need there to be no undefeated Big East teams, a possibility, but one that will require a modest upset at some point.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: at USC, November 25.
Ohio State: 1/2
The Buckeyes remain the overwhelming title favorites and will be favored in every game here on out including the possible National Championship game. Even if the Buckeyes would lose to Michigan, there would still be a chance of a re-match game as dictated by the BCS standings as the Buckeyes have an impressive road win at Texas who could finish the season highly ranked. The Buckeyes are in complete control of their route to the title but it is very poor value laying 2 to 1 money on a team that must win two games against very strong opponents.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: Michigan, November 18.
Texas: 10/1
The Big 12 is down but if Ohio State ends up as the lone undefeated team, Texas could claim that there only loss makes them the top one-loss team. The weak Big 12 is killing the Longhorns in the Computers, currently ranked 12th but those numbers could be aided by games with an improving Oklahoma State team and a one-loss Texas A&M team. The Big 12 Title game may not help the strength of schedule however as the North champion will have at least two losses. Texas has a relatively easy road to winning out the schedule and finishing 12-1 but it may not be enough to get a chance at a repeat title. If Michigan would beat Ohio State, the Longhorns would also have a difficult time being bumped ahead of a one-loss Ohio State team considering that the Buckeyes soundly won in Austin this season. The odds should probably be a bit steeper for Texas as the road to title game will be very difficult as the Computer component of the BCS rankings will be a detriment.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: Texas A&M, November 25.
USC: 15/1
The Trojans recent loss brings a bit of value here and although the tough remaining schedule makes finishing the year with one loss difficult, it also gives USC the best potential resume. Winning out would make the Trojans 11-1 with wins over potential top ten teams Cal and Notre Dame, as well as a possible SEC champion in Arkansas and a possible Big 12 champion Nebraska. None of the top ranked teams have played a non-conference schedule as tough as USC. USC has slipped to 8 in the BCS standing because the team slipped in the polls but winning out would see the Trojans climb up fairly high as several teams ahead of them will be losing in the next three weeks. The USC Computer average is currently #6 and that number is sure to go up considering the four remaining games are all solid teams, Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, and at UCLA. A daunting schedule but the first three come at home. USC will need help in the Big East to eliminate an undefeated team but given how tough the USC schedule is, it is not impossible for an 11-1 Trojans team to out-rank an undefeated Big East champion if things fall favorably, and USC may be the only team that could make that claim. Arkansas will need to be the SEC champion and a strong finish from Nebraska would also help the cause if the numbers are to have a chance to work out for USC.
TOUGHEST REMAINING GAME: California, November 18.
The Field: 50/1
Arkansas is the only team is this group that might give a deserving look, but they face a difficult finish with four SEC games plus a potential SEC championship game. The Razors are in great position to be in that title game but even as SEC Champion Arkansas will need a lot of help to get into the big game. Arkansas is currently 13th in the BCS standings. Rutgers has the potential to go undefeated and actually has a much better computer figure than West Virginia, sitting #8 but beating both Louisville and West Virginia on the road is unlikely and even an undefeated Rutgers team could probably not rise to #2 in the polls, which they would absolutely need to have a chance at being #2 in the BCS. Boise State could well go undefeated but will not be given the chance. Wisconsin could well go 11-1 but won’t pass Michigan or Ohio State. Boston College has a tough remaining schedule but the ACC ratings won’t be strong enough. This wager would basically be on Arkansas, who probably has a better shot than Tennessee or Auburn, but still not enough of a chance to justify it.
