The Big Game lived up to the hype last week and delivered the first entry to the National Championship game. Michigan holds a slim lead in the #2 BCS spot but USC will pass the Wolverines if they beat Notre Dame next week. Going to UCLA at the end of the year will not be easy but the Trojans are in control of their destiny in playing in a third straight national title game. Although there is much conversation surrounding possible scenarios there should be little controversy when the games are finished.

If USC wins out they deserve to play for the title. They will be the top one-loss team having played an extremely tough non-conference schedule that could potentially feature both the SEC and Big 12 champions. Having crushed Arkansas in Fayetteville this season they deserve to be ranked higher than the possible one-loss SEC champion. Although some are maintaining hopes of a shot for the Irish if Notre Dame beats USC they will knock out the Trojans but having lost badly to Michigan at home this season there is no way they could displace the Wolverines. The only potential controversy would be between Michigan and the SEC champion if USC loses a game and the eventual SEC champion does not lose its final regular season game this week (by no means an easy task for either Florida or Arkansas this week). If Notre Dame is the team to beat USC, the SEC champion likely can’t pass Michigan. If UCLA would beat USC it would be fairly close between Michigan and Florida if the Gators beat FSU and Arkansas. Arkansas would have a tougher road and would need to jump in the polls even if they defeat LSU and Florida.

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The Big East deserves mention but none of three contenders will be able to climb past Michigan. West Virginia is probably the best team of the group but will have a tough time winning the conference because they will eliminate Rutgers from the 3-way tie on top of the conference if they win the finale on Dec. 2. Since Louisville beat West Virginia they will take the Big East title and BCS berth assuming they do not lost to Pittsburgh or Connecticut. There is a chance West Virginia could earn an at-large BCS spot but with Michigan, Notre Dame, and Boise State looking to be strong BCS possibilities, that leaves just one BCS spot for West Virginia and passing the SEC championship loser, or another SEC team like LSU(if they beat Arkansas) might be tough to do. If Arkansas loses this week and then beats Florida, LSU’s chances may be improved but Florida would likely hold a slim edge over LSU having beaten the Tigers this season. However, if Arkansas beats LSU then loses to Florida, the SEC will likely see just one bid as Arkansas likely does not have a strong enough resume to get there without winning the SEC championship.

A team that may deserve a BCS spot but is out of luck is Wisconsin, who could conceivably climb into the top five in the BCS rankings but has no chance of going to a BCS bowl as only two teams per conference are allowed. That rule may get some review in the future though Wisconsin may not deserve a BCS spot having faced a very weak schedule. Boise State has a good chance of getting to a BCS bowl despite a weak schedule but they face a very difficult game this week playing at Nevada. A Boise loss would open the door fro West Virginia, another SEC team, or possibly the Big 12 South runner-up, Texas or Oklahoma as another possibility for a BCS spot. That is assuming that the South champion beats Nebraska, which should not be assumed as the Big 12 title game has seen its share of upsets in recent years. If Nebraska wins, the Big 12 will certainly be a one-BCS bid conference and they likely will be just that under most other scenarios. If Notre Dame loses badly to USC they could possibly fall out of the BCS picture with a significant drop in the polls, but given the media and fan appeal of the Irish they are likely safe for a spot no matter what the results are.

The re-match of Michigan/Ohio State may not be appealing for many fans but there will be no other team besides USC, Florida, or Arkansas could make a case with any weight. The Arkansas case would be questionable as they played most tough games at home with one of the easier SEC schedules and were blown out at home by USC. Florida could make a strong case if they win out even with some close calls throughout the year as they beat quality teams away from home and played a decent non-conference slate.

Editor’s note: Joe Nelson has delivered a fantastic college football season at VegasInsider.com. Currently ranked #1 in money (+1,845!) among all VI handicappers with a 52-32 overall record, Nelson has been especially hot down the stretch with a dominating 34-11 mark for over 75 percent in the last five weeks (since Oct. 14). Last Saturday Nelson put together an outstanding 5-1 day and he expects another great weekend featuring picks Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.