The college football season is around six months away from starting, but speculation is already running rampant. The conversations run from which team will win a particular conference to players accepting money from that nefarious booster and their car dealership (cough, Rhett Bomar, cough) and who will end up in the BCS Title game. But there is another debate that we’re going to look at right now. Who’s going to win the Heisman Trophy?
When looking at the list of props from BetUS.com, the first thing you notice is there a lot of quarterbacks to choose from for your betting pleasure. Just over half of the list of named players is signal callers.
That number certainly thumbs its nose at history as 40 of the 72 winners has came from the backfield, but it was running backs, not quarterbacks that left Manhattan with the hardware. To be fair to the sportsbooks though, six of the past seven Heisman Trophy winners were quarterbacks.
One thing that seems to predicate who will claim the trophy is they are always on a squad that is destined for success. The past seven winners have played in BCS bowl game, six of which were for the national championship. So it’s more than just coincidence that the top four teams to win the BCS Title at bodog.com also have two players each as strong possibilities of winning the Heisman Trophy.
Southern California is one of those teams that are carrying two legitimate contenders this season in junior QB John David Booty and sophomore RB C.J. Gable, while coming in at 5/2 to win the championship at bodog.com. Booty is currently a 4/1 favorite to win the Heisman this year and it’s hard to fault that pick. The Trojans return 8 of their starting 11 on offense, including 3 on the offensive line.
USC’s wide receiver unit is depleted with the loss of both Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, but shouldn’t hurt as bad as one would think. Especially, if Booty can throw the screen pass and hand off to Gable, who looks to continue the legacy of great backs emerging from Troy. However, the sophomore only ran for 434 yards as the full time starter. He looks to be a great value play at 20/1 though.
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| Mike Hart hopes it will be all smiles this year for Michigan. (AP Images) |
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Michigan comes in at 13/2 to win the national title this year thanks to having its core of offensive weapons returning for their senior year. Arguably the best candidate the Wolverines have is senior RB Mike Hart, coming in at 8/1 for the Heisman. Hart ranked ninth in the nation on the ground, gaining 1,562 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. You have to think Hart will do more of the same with All-American tackle Jake Long parting defenses for him.
Once the Wolverine’s rushing attack gets going, it will allow senior QB Chad Henne to work his magic. Henne comes in at 12/1 to claim the trophy this season, but will have to exorcise a lot of demons to do so. The senior from West Lawn, Pennsylvania is 0-3 against hated rival, Ohio State, and will truly emerge as a worthy competitor for the Heisman if he can beat the boys from Columbus.
The Mountaineers are also another program that showcases a pair of Heisman hopefuls in the backfield tandem of junior QB Pat White and junior RB Steve Slaton. This dynamic duo anchors a club that is currently listed at 8/1 to win it all. Slaton was a nigh unstoppable force on the ground for West Virginia, gaining 1,744 rushing yards and 16 scores. Those numbers have laid the groundwork for Slaton to be a 4/1 favorite to claim the Heisman.
White completes the impressive pair with the ability to hurt on the ground with his legs and through the air with his arm. The Leavittown, Pennsylvania native was one of the top five passers in the Big East with 13 touchdowns. However, White must be willing to throw more often this year instead relying solely on his legs to pay the tickets of bettors that take him at 12/1 to win the trophy right now.
Florida rounds out the list of teams with two candidates to pull in the hardware in its bid to claim a second consecutive national title, which they are currently posted at 15/2 to win. However, the Gators pair comprised of sophomore QB Tim Tebow and wide receiver Percy Harvin will need to help one another to claim the school’s third Heisman winner ever and first since 1996. Harvin was the Southeastern Conference’s Freshman of the Year last season because of his versatility in Urban Meyer’s offense.
Harvin caught 34 passes for 427 yards and 2 scores, but also ran for another 428 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. Harvin is currently listed at 16/1 to win the Heisman, mostly due to wide outs not winning it very often: it’s happened just twice overall with the last going Michigan’s Desmond Howard in 1991.
Another thing that is holding Harvin back is the insertion of Tebow, who is listed at 10/1 for the Heisman, behind center full time this year. But the knock on Tebow is that he was more of a runner for Florida last season than a passer. Although, he did pass well when his number was called, completing 67 percent of his passes (22-of-33) for five scores and an interception last year. However, Tebow does have the benefit of Harvin and an offensive line that averages 300 pounds per man. How slim are Tebow’s chance of winning the hardware this season? VegasInsider.com handicapper Christian Alexander puts it best; “No way…no way he (Tebow) will win it this year.”
The best value on the board as far as VegasInsider.com handicapper Dan Berube is concerned is Texas QB Colt McCoy. “McCoy played better than anyone expected last season and will have most of the same supporting cast returning this year.” Berube continued, “The fact that most of the Longhorns’ tough games are at home in 2007 makes McCoy very attractive at 14/1 this season.”
Drop Judd Hall a line at judd@vegasinsider.com