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#2 LSU (0-0) at Mississippi State (0-0)
August 30, 2007
Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (Natural Grass)
8:01 PM ET, ESPN
Line: LSU – 18.5
Finally – opening night. There isn’t a better time for fans of college football. In fact, it’s so nice I think we should do it twice…or maybe seven times? Yes, Thursday night college football has become such an event that it is not only afforded the honor of opening the season but it’s become like a mini version of Saturday.
There are seven games on the board this Thursday night and in honor of opening weekend I’m going to give players two picks - a little bonus to start the year.
Obviously, only one game can take center stage on Thursday and it’s always the one that is shown on ESPN. So, while I don’t think it will be the best game of the night – more on that one at the end – it’s only natural that we start with the action in Starkville, MS where the Bayou Bengals of LSU will take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
LSU comes into this season with enormous hype around the program. Behind Southern Cal, the team from Baton Rouge, LA is being touted by the media experts more than any other school in the land. In projecting the outcome of the college football season, ESPN’s experts predicted that LSU would go undefeated in the regular season, quite a feat for a team in the rugged SEC conference.
As you would expect, there is some obvious reason for this optimism. First and foremost, this is a program that returns eight starters from a defense that ranked third in the nation last year in total defense. Simply put, this unit should be suffocating once again.
And then there are the special playmakers back on offense – mainly in the form of the electric WR Early Doucet. But like any team in college – well, just about every team outside of the aforementioned Trojans – there are also a few question marks with the Tigers.
You only had to watch the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft this past April to know that Coach Les Miles will be missing some pretty big pieces from last year as he starts this season. In total, LSU had four first round picks in QB JaMarcus Russell (#1 to Oakland), FS LaRon Landry (#6 to Washington), WR Dwayne Bowe (#23 to Kansas City) and WR Craig Davis (#30 to San Diego).
However, LSU seemingly has an answer for all that talent they lost.
The most obvious concern is the replacement for JaMarcus Russell at the all-important QB position. Fifth-year senior Matt Flynn has been waiting for this season for quite a while and if his performance in the 2005 Peach Bowl against Miami is any indication, the Tigers will be just fine.
Subbing for Russell, who had an injured shoulder, Flynn led the Tigers to a rout of the Canes, 40-3, picking up game MVP honors along the way.
Landry was a very important piece to the LSU defense last season but considering the starters that are back – including monster DT Glenn Dorsey – his absence should not be nearly as glaring as it would for most programs.
Finally, the loss of Bowe and Davis will simply make more room for playmakers like Doucet to shine. Yes, Les Miles is merely reloading – not rebuilding.
Speaking of rebuilding, after three seasons on the job, it appears as if Coach Sylvester Croom is still trying to lay the foundation – and that’s putting it nicely. The problem is, in today’s world a combined record of 9-25 in three years won’t get you a whole lot more time on the job. Predictably, there seems to be a sense of urgency around Starkville heading into this season.
But does Croom have the weapons to compete? There was a silver lining to the end of last season when the Bulldogs played some inspired football, especially in their last five games – all against SEC opponents.
Only a team with the recent history of Mississippi State could find positives in finishing a season 1-4 but considering three of those losses were by three points and the other was a respectable 14 point loss to Arkansas, ranked 5th in the nation at the time, it is something to build on. Not to mention, the lone win down the stretch – at Alabama, Croom’s alma mater – was clearly the high point of the year.
It’s pretty clear now that in order for the Bulldogs to be successful – and more specifically, to score points – they must keep QB Michael Henig healthy. The news out of Starkville is that Henig – who twice broke his collarbone last year – has finally added some muscle to his frame in order to become more durable.
They will need him under center for the entire season, in addition to added production from RB Anthony Dixon and WR’s Tony Burks, Jamayel Smith and Brandon McRae in order to survive a brutal schedule with games at Auburn, South Carolina, West Virginia and Arkansas – not to mention a home game against Tennessee.
But first things first and that means that Croom must get his troops ready for what is clearly the most talented squad he will face this year. As you might expect, the Bulldogs are heavy underdogs (+18.5 at Sports.com), even at home.
As I mentioned at the top, I am also including a play in my Thursday night pick pack on the Utah at Oregon State (-7) game. I think this will be the most entertaining game to kickoff the season and hopefully a very profitable one as well.
Thursday Night Opener Factoids:
Mississippi State is 23-31-3 in SEC home openers
LSU was 6-5-2 against the spread last season
Mississippi State was 5-5-1 against the spread last season
LSU drilled the Bulldogs 48-17 last year in Baton Rouge but were unable to cover the 33.5 point number
Mississippi State is 6-6 in Thursday night ESPN games – including a four game losing streak
LSU has beaten Mississippi State 14 out of the last 15 games, including seven in a row.