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Revenge Factor
October 4, 2007
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
W hen it comes to handicapping college football, the most overrated factor is revenge.
“Some of these kids don’t even remember what their record was last year, let alone revenge,” said long-time Las Vegas professional bettor Jimmy Rotunda.
Those who played the numerous revenge angles last week don’t need further convincing. To wit:
West Virginia was minus 7 at South Florida, the school that beat the Mountaineers last year as a 21-point road underdog. West Virginia lost 21-13.
Florida was minus 17 hosting Auburn, which dealt the Gators their lone loss last year. Final: Auburn 20-17.
Texas was 14-point home favorites versus Kansas State, the team that stunned them last year as even bigger underdogs. The Wildcats won again, 41-21.
Iowa was minus 10 hosting Indiana, which shocked the Hawkeyes last year as 19-point underdogs. No revenge here either as the Hoosiers won, 38-20.
“You have to have talent; you have to have matchups,” Rotunda said. “Revenge is the last thing I look at. Vanderbilt should beat LSU soon. It’s only been about 30 years. That kind of revenge doesn’t mean anything.
“Anybody who just looks at the schedule and handicaps by revenge isn’t doing his job.”
That may be a little harsh. Oddsmakers do factor revenge when making a line – if it’s applicable.
“You have to look at a lot of things,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, when asked how much revenge is taken into account. “Some of these teams it doesn’t matter if they’re in revenge mode.
“They’re just not good enough to win. So you have to pick your spots on revenge games.”
Other considerations are involved, too.
“I’ve noticed revenge angles work better for a team when they’re at home rather than being on the road,” Seba said. “In the case of Kansas State against Texas other factors were at work.
Kansas State actually is a good team. That’s No. 1 plus Texas had Oklahoma the following week so maybe they were looking ahead. It really depends on the situation.”
Every week it seems there are revenge games. This week is no exception.
Georgia is plus 1 at Tennessee. The Bulldogs blew a 22-7 second quarter lead last year against the Volunteers in a 51-33 home loss.
Indiana is 13 1/2-point home chalk against Minnesota. The Hoosiers were humiliated at Minnesota last year, losing 63-26.
UCLA could be eager to atone for losing to Notre Dame last year, 20-17, on a 45-yard touchdown pass with 27 seconds left. The home Bruins are minus 20 ½.
Washington State figures to be up for its home game against Arizona State after the Sun Devils scored a touchdown with 14 seconds left last year when already leading 40-17 to make the final 47-17. The Cougars are catching nine points.
“There are always going to be spots,” Rotunda said. “But generally it’s an overrated angle.”
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