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Week 7 Recap
October 14, 2007
By Scott Rickenbach VegasInsider.com
By taking a look at the four games we were involved with this past Saturday, we will get a good look at what to watch for among eight teams in the coming weeks. First off we'll take a look at our Top Play which fell short on Saturday despite some interesting statistics. We had 'over' the total in Cincinnati, and the Bearcats and Louisville Cardinals combined for over 900 yards of offense in the game! The only thing that kept this game from going 'over' the total was that three of the four turnovers (last one of the game was meaningless) happened in the wrong part of the field! The Bearcats were driving and had their drives squelched by turnovers on a couple of occasions.
Here's what you can take from the Cats-Cards game. Both Cincinnati and Lousville are set up well to go 'over' the total often in the coming weeks. The Bearcats no-huddle offense is run with efficiency under new Coach Brian Kelley. This has had a lot to do with Cincy's great start to the season, and the team should bounce back from this loss. As for the Cardinals, they will get some postive momentum from this big win. As their receivers continue to get healthier, their offensive production will improve. As for the Cards defense, it is a definite weak spot. They were outgained by the Cats even though they won the game. The Cats defense is overrated. Yes, they are an opportunistic bunch in terms of turnovers but they are not as rock solid fundamentally as everyone thinks they are. They will have some hiccups in the Big East stretch run.
The play we won with on Saturday was an easy win with the Lobos of New Mexico dominating Wyoming in a 20-3 win. The passing yards were nearly dead even in this contest, but the Lobos outgained the Cowboys by over 100 yards on the ground. New Mexico was flying under the radar coming into this game, and we believe the team is going to be tough for MWC opponents the rest of the way. Coach Rocky Long took advantage of the bye week, and this team is ready for a strong surge after the win over the Cowboys. Wyoming could have trouble bouncing back from a home loss where its running game was shut down. Keep that in mind in the coming weeks.
Our day started Saturday with a frustrating loss. A 43-14 Virginia Tech win certainly would indicate that we had nothing to be frustrated about. It looks like Duke was never even in the game even though the Blue Devils were dogs of more than two touchdowns. However, what the final score doesn't show you is that this game was a tight 13-7 score when the Hokies young QB, Taylor, was injured on a play. In came the more experienced Glennon for Virginia Tech, and everything changed after that as Glennon had a huge game. Our play was a play against Taylor who had been jittery in the pocket and has not looked comfortable at times in recent games. Note that Taylor only led the Hokies to two field goals in the early going, and the one touchdown was set up on a short field by a fumble recovery on a kick return. In other words, Taylor's struggles were continuing just as we had predicted.
Virginia Tech has a bye week coming up, and if Glennon is back in the driver's seat at QB all we can say is the rest of the ACC better pay attention. He learned a lot from having to sit on the bench after the junior lost his starting job to the freshman Taylor. The Hokies, with strong defense and special teams, could be a very tough out for any ACC teams if their offense continues to click under Glennon. As for Duke, the team had played better than many expected so far this season in terms of at least playing teams tight. The Blue Devils have a tough schedule coming up, but the bye week could help them to regroup and just note that they have been a covering machine this season...at least until the 'flukey' results of this past Saturday. We're convinced that the Hokies never would have covered that large impost with Taylor at QB. Look out with Glennon back on top the rest of the way!
Our fourth and final play was upsetting in that the Arkansas defense performed just like we thought it would. However, even with arguably the most dangerous rushing tandem in the league, the Razorbacks simply couldn't move the ball on Auburn. Give credit to the Tigers for a fantastic defensive performance, but note that the Razorbacks anemic offensive performance at home was definitely inexcusable. Arkansas desperately needs its top wide receiver, Monk, back in the lineup. Until he is back in there, the Hogs are likely to continue to struggle.
As for Auburn, we'd advise being careful with this team due to its anemic offense. The Tigers have had some injury issues too, and they just can't score enough to keep up with the best teams in the SEC. Auburn has averaged under 18 points per game this season if you take away the 'easy' match-ups of Vanderbilt and New Mexico State. LSU is going to be a major challenge for Arkansas this week because the Tigers certainly won't be in a good mood after losing at Kentucky in triple overtime!
Hopefully the above News You Can Use segment will help you in the coming weeks. Note that even when crazy things happen, like losing the Top Play on 'over' the total in Cincinnati despite 900 yards of offense, this does not change the fact that the handicapping process can be greatly enhanced on a weekly basis. The key is to understand the real results of wins and losses. Sometimes cappers win games they shouldn't and sometimes they lose games they shouldn't. Unfortunately we've had many more of the latter so far this season! However, as long as attention is always paid to the direct correlation of what happened on the field versus what happened in the won-loss ledgers, handicappers can know if they're on the right track. That said, we couldn't be more excited about the anticipation of Week 8's college football slate. As always, best of luck in all your gaming from Scott Rickenbach.
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