Congratulations, Missouri (11-1 straight up, 8-2-1 against the spread)…you’re the next No. 1 destined to fall during the college football season.
No offense to Gary Pinkel, Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker, but your Tigers are about to find themselves as just another team with unfulfilled dreams in a season full of them. This will be extra painful because winning the Big XII title game would clinch their spot in New Orleans for the BCS national championship game.
Oddly enough though, you won’t hear the people in Columbus, Ohio feeling bad for Mizzou when they lose.
I understand that you need proof before buying what I’m selling…so here we go.
We’ll start with Oklahoma’s (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) 41-31 win over the Tigers as a 12 ½-point home favorite.
Sam Bradford was effective in reading Mizzou’s defense, completing 70 percent (24 of 34) of his passes for 266 yards and a pair of scores. The Sooners’ offensive line was strong, allowing just one sack and giving the running backs ample time to rack up 118 yards.
In fact, Bradford has had only one really bad outing in his freshman campaign under center. And that was in Week 5 at Colorado, where he tossed a pair of interceptions that lead to 14 points in the Buffs’ 27-24 upset of OU.
I don’t count his three pass attempt showing against Texas Tech because he got his clock cleaned in the first quarter, sitting out the remainder of the game with a concussion. If anything, it showed how important he was to the Sooners’ offensive gameplan.
The oddsmakers are siding with Oklahoma, installing them as a three-point favorite with a total of 67. Both numbers have remained sessile since being made on Nov. 25. What makes it surprising to me is that Mizzou is the top ranked team in the land, but posted as a ‘dog.
How rare is it for a top team not to be favored? In the BCS era, there are only two times that a No. 1 squad was listed as a dog. The top ranked Seminoles fell to No. 3 Florida as three-point pups, 52-20, in the 1997 Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes were in a similar situation last year at No. 2 Texas, but won as three-point road 'dogs, 24-7.
Ken White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, figures home field helped out when making the line for the first game. “At the time the first game was played, we felt Oklahoma was 3 ½-points better than Missouri and the market felt they were 7 ½-points better.” White adds, “I have a plus-six for their (the Sooners’) home field.”
It turns out that the spread could have been a bit bigger if one player was going to be on the field for the Crimson and Cream, DeMarco Murray. “Murray by himself,” White concludes “is worth one point to the line.”
Murray, a true freshman from Las Vegas, went down with a dislocated kneecap in the loss to Texas Tech. And while the Sooners will miss his speed, they didn’t need him the last time against Mizzou. Instead, Oklahoma installed a platoon of Chris Brown (13 carries, 67 yards, three touchdowns) and Allen Patrick (11 rushes, 44 yards).
Recent history is also on Oklahoma’s side for this tilt, going 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Tigers.
Another thing the Sooners have on Missouri in this matchup is familiarity with the stage at which they’re playing. OU will be playing in its sixth Big XII title game, the Tigers are making their first appearance. Oklahoma’s record so far in the conference final is a stellar 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.
If you need another trend, think about rematches that have occurred in the Big XII championship game. Teams that lost the first game posted a 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the four instances that it has happened. And Oklahoma was involved in two of those meetings. Texas was the only team to fall after beating their title game foe during the regular season, losing 22-6 to Nebraska back in 1999.
Kick-off is set for 8:00 pm EDT with ABC broadcasting the contest nationally.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
