We’re getting closer to the start of the college football season. Spring games have been played by many programs. Starting jobs have been doled out in a timely fashion as to not upset boosters and players alike. We’re even starting to hear folks bemoan the possibility of Ohio State doing its best Mama Cass with a ham sandwich impression in Miami at another BCS Title Game.
Fans across the country also are contemplating who will be winning that popularity contest called the Heisman Trophy.
When I first saw the props that Bodog put out for the award, I figured that they could have Tim Tebow on the brain. They have 46 total options available for this futures bet, 27 of which are signal callers.
I must admit that you can’t fault them for putting that many quarterbacks on the list when seven of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners came from that position. As impressive as that might be, remember that 40 of the 73 that walked away with the hardware were running backs. And there are 15 rushers on the board for your consideration, too.
Tebow actually bucked the recent trend we’ve seen in winners of this prestigious award by becoming the first player that hasn’t played in a BCS Bowl Game since 1999. Not bad for a guy that VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Christian Alexander thought had no chance at taking home the honors last year.
The odds of a guy from a program not playing in one of the major bowls this season claiming the Heisman are pretty long. Like I said earlier, this is more of a popularity contest for a player that is on a title contender. Look no further for proof outside of the fact that the top five schools to win the national championship also house at least two hopefuls on Bodog’s list.
Southern California is just a factory for producing talent that the country wants to talk about. They also have two legit contenders in QB Mark Sanchez and RB Joe McKnight, while coming in as a 3/1 favorite win it all on sportsbook.com. Sanchez is a bit of longshot to win the hardware this season as he’s currently listed at 40/1. Meanwhile, McKnight is listed at 20/1 to take home the Heisman.
Backing Troy’s gunslinger in his first full season as a starter is a lot more risky than taking McKnight. Sanchez wasn’t stellar on the field last season, throwing for 758 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. His only good outing was against a Notre Dame squad that would take being called “garbage” as a compliment. Add in the fact he’ll be setting up behind a light offensive line (averaging 291 per player) that is returning just one starter.
Ironically, the inexperience of the offensive line could actually help McKnight in his quest to be the second straight sophomore to win the award. McKnight was the top recruit for Pete Carroll last season and rushed for 540 yards with three scores in light duty as a freshman. If he can at least triple those numbers this season with the line in front of him, then the Louisiana native will have a fighter’s chance.
Oklahoma is listed at 6/1 to win the national championship this season thanks to have nine starters returning to its offense this season. The Sooners’ best chance at bring their second trophy home of the new millennia is RB DeMarco Murray at 20/1. Murray was a one-man highlight reel in his freshman campaign, rushing for 764 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 11 games before a dislocated kneecap laid him out.
How important was Murray to OU’s cause last year? LVSC’s Ken White told me that he was worth one full point on any line. Not many players in the nation can lay claim to that type of impact.
Sam Bradford is the Sooners’ second option on the board for a Heisman winner at 10/1. And while his odds are much shorter than his teammates, they are a bit harder to buy. One of the reasons I’m not buying into him this time around is he closed out the season poorly after his concussion. The complete book of work was great (3,121 passing yards, 36 scores, eight picks), but looked his age at the end of the year…especially against West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl in spite of his numbers.
For Bradford to really make a run at the Heisman, he’ll need to throw at least three touchdowns per game to be considered. And that might not even get him in the Top 10 of voting.
The Gators are back in the mix with their usual suspects for the top honors. Tebow is Florida’s best hope to win it most likely as the 3/1 favorite. Can the dual threat take a seat next to Archie Griffin as the one two-time Heisman Trophy winners? Well, it’s going to be a tough thing to accomplish after throwing for 3,286 yards and six touchdowns and running for another 895 yards and 23 scores. He practically has to equal those numbers to make a case for himself and the possibility of that is very real.
Percy Harvin is the other candidate for Florida in the backfield or on the edge…wherever Urban Meyer decides to put him. Most likely he’ll be lining up as a part of the run option along with Brandon James to keep defenses honest. And while that will be great for the Gators as a team, it’s detrimental to Harvin’s shot at making a trip to New York City in December.
Ohio State leads the collegiate pack in terms of prop bets at four. Todd Boeckman was the model of staying calm in the pocket for much of the 2007 season. Yet when he was tested by real challenges (Illinois, Michigan and LSU), his numbers and confidence wavered. Boeckman is currently listed at 20/1, which isn’t a bad bet, but he has to log great numbers at Southern California on Sept. 13 to make me rest easier on that wager.
Chris “Beanie” Wells is the Buckeyes’ true threat to give the school their eighth Heisman Trophy at 8/1. He’s a punishing rusher that runs predominately North-South. Wells rushed for 1,609 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, eight of those scores coming in the final four games of the year. The only knock on him is that he rarely runs around the edge for substantial gains.
Butkus Award winner James Laurinaitis is the heart and soul the OSU defense and at 50/1 looks like a “why not?” kind of bet. The only problem is that a linebacker has never won this top honor and only two in the history of the Heisman Trophy. Don’t expect that to change this year either.
Top recruit Tyrelle Pryor is a 100/1 longshot, but you’d have a better chance of putting out a house fire with a cup of snow than him winning as a freshman.
The Bulldogs round out the list of the Top 5 favorites with a pair of players with Heisman aspirations. Georgia’s gun slinger Matthew Stafford addition to the list at 14/1 is more window dressing than an actual chance at winning. He finished the season lousy in terms of stats, completing 54 percent of his passes for 488 yards with two scores and three interceptions in his final three starts.
What Stafford was really great at was handing the ball off to Knowshon Moreno en route to Georgia’s Sugar Bowl win. Moreno made a name for himself nationally with a 188 yard, three touchdown Oct. 27 performance against the Gators and never looked back. He and Oklahoma’s Murray are the best rushers in the country. And getting Moreno at 10/1 is as solid a bet as you can make right now.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
