2007: Texas finished 10-3 straight up and 6-6-1 against the spread, thumping Arizona State by a 52-34 count at the Holiday Bowl. The 10-win season was the seventh straight for the Longhorns under Mack Brown.
A trip to a BCS bowl game went out the window in a 38-30 loss at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. Prior to the loss in College Station, Texas had won five in a row, including a remarkable comeback victory at Oklahoma St.
But any shot of winning a second national title in three years was put to bed in back-to-back mid-season losses. Kansas St. came into Austin and pulled a shocker, beating the ‘Horns 41-21 as a 14 ½-point underdog. The next week, Oklahoma captured a 28-21 triumph in the Red River Rivalry.
Strengths: With Brown continuing to produce one elite recruiting class after the other, Texas is as big and strong as any program in the trenches. Phil Steele ranks the Longhorns’ offensive and defensive lines as the second-best in the Big 12.
However, not a single Texas player is on Steele’s first-team All-Big 12 squad. In other words, the Longhorns don’t have a superstar on the roster, yet they are solid across the board.
Although junior quarterback Colt McCoy went through a sophomore slump, throwing 18 interceptions after posting a 29/7 TD-INT ratio as a freshman, he’s still a veteran signal caller that appears poised for a bounce-back campaign. McCoy’s favorite target will be senior WR Quan Cosby, who had 60 receptions for 680 yards and five TDs in 2007.
The secondary should be a strength. Senior CB Ryan Palmer broke up 14 passes last year and isn’t afraid to stick his nose into the fray. Palmer was Texas’ second-leading tackler in ’07 with 80 stops. Junior CB Deon Beasley moves into a more prominent role following a season in which he had nine passes broken up and three interceptions.
When it comes to close games, Texas should be in good shape in terms of its place-kicking. Senior PK Ryan Bailey connected on 8-of-10 attempts from beyond 40 yards last year.
Weaknesses: Who will step up as the featured running back? Jamaal Charles is gone after rushing for 1,619 yards and 18 TDs last season. Redshirt freshman RB Foswhitt Whittaker had an outstanding spring game and appears to have the lead over Vondrell McGee for the starting slot. McGee had 75 rushing attempts last season, scoring eight TDs and averaging 4.0 YPC.
There are a number of holes to fill defensively. Seven of the Longhorns’ top 12 tacklers from 2007 are gone.
Player to Watch: DE Brian Orakpo – The senior defensive end had 5 ½ sacks last season and 3 ½ tackles behind the line. The Longhorns are hoping for a breakout campaign from Orakpo.
Returning Starters: 11 (7 offense, 4 defense)
Schedule: There aren’t any major threats in non-conference play. Florida Atlantic is an up-and-coming program, but the Owls aren’t quite ready to compete against Texas, especially in Austin. UTEP gets the Longhorns in El Paso, but there’s no reason to anticipate an upset.
Arkansas had Texas’ number during Houston Nutt’s tenure, but the Razorbacks have to come to Austin and they’re clearly rebuilding this season. The ‘Horns finish non-league play with a home game against Rice before an open date.
Texas has four Big 12 games at home, three on the road and the annual Oklahoma game in Dallas. All three road games – at Colorado, at Texas Tech and at Kansas -- will be formidable.
Letdown Spot: Oct. 18 vs. Missouri – This will serve as more of a letdown situation if Texas beats Oklahoma the previous week. Whatever the case, the Sooners are the Longhorns’ arch rival, so the following game always serves as somewhat of a letdown spot.
Look-Ahead Situation: Oct. 25 vs. Oklahoma St. – With a trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech on deck, Texas had better not sleep on the Cowboys, who will be seeking revenge after allowing a 35-14 lead to get away against the ‘Horns last season.
Good Bets: Play On Texas Sep. 13 vs. Arkansas -- This rivalry dates back to each school’s days in the Southwest Conference. The Razorbacks have won three of the last four meetings, nearly pulling a shocking upset in their lone loss (22-20 in ’04) when Texas was ranked seventh.
However, Arkansas lost as much talent as any program in the country. Texas will probably be laying a number in the 14-17 range, and that won’t be enough to keep the home ‘chalk’ from taking the cash.
Play Against Texas Oct. 25 vs. Oklahoma St. -- This game is sandwiched between games vs. Missouri and at Texas Tech. There’s a chance the Cowboys will be catching double digits, and that’ll probably merit a play on Mike Gundy’s squad, which only has to cope with Baylor at home the preceding week.
Prediction: I’m calling for Texas to go 10-2, but it’s not a super-confident forecast. I have the Longhorns winning at Colorado and at Kansas, but both of those games are lose-able (not to mention the home tilt vs. Mizzou). I have the ‘Horns falling against OU and at Texas Tech.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Texas is 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite in 10 such spots the last two seasons.
--Since 2000, Texas is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog.
--Random Big 12 Thoughts:
1-Missouri will beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game.
2-Highest scoring game: Texas Tech vs. SMU on Sep. 13.
3-Toughest non-conference slate: Colorado (vs. West Va., at FSU in Jacksonville)
4-Toughest non-conference game: Kansas at South Florida
5-Best Freshman: Colorado RB Darrell Scott
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
