Editor's Note: Judd Hall makes his debut as a handicapper in college football this season with VegasInsider.com. Be sure to pick up his winners. Click to win!
Last year was one of the wildest seasons in college football that I can remember. I guess we could say that for any year that starts with an FCS program beating a traditional power on the road and ends with a two-loss team winning the national championship.
As unpredictable as the year was, we did get one matchup in the first weekend that gave us a glimpse into a pair of teams that would do well.
Missouri came into 2007 as a darkhorse in the Big XII race, while Illinois was looked at as a club that was up and coming in the Big Ten.
These two clubs combined for 74 points and a game that was up for grabs into the final minutes of the game. Yet this game was more of an anomaly than you’d think after looking closer.
Mizzou came into the game as a 5 ½-point favorite at the Edward Jones Dome with the total coming in at 58. And the Tigers didn’t disappoint as Chase Daniel lit up the sky by connecting on 37 of 54 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns in the 40-34 victory. They were also able to move the chains, converting on eight of 19 third downs.
The Tigers were able to do everything the really wanted to do, but they couldn’t account for Eddie McGee.
Illinois’ backup quarterback entered in the second quarter for Juice Williams, who was knocked out by a shot to the head. And McGee went on a tear, guiding the Fighting Illini to 21 unanswered points. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 257 yards with a touchdown and two picks. The second of those picks coming on the Missouri one-yard line with just 51 seconds left in regulation.
Fast forward to 2008 and we see both sides take to the field once again in St. Louis. And once again Missouri is listed as an 8 ½-point “chalk” with the total coming in at 59 ½. Gamblers can take a chance on the Illini to win outright for a return of plus 330 (risk $100 to win $330).
As tempting as it might be to take Illinois on any level, you may want to reconsider.
Williams will be back under center, but he won’t have the same stable of receivers this time around. Gone is Rashard Mendenhall and Jacob Willis, replaced by Daniel Dufrene and Arrelious Benn. While Benn was the top receiver for Illinois, there weren’t many options for him to score (only two touchdowns last year). It is hard to think that Ron Zook will have found a way to make Williams a better passer this season, especially after throwing almost as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (12 to 13).
Illinois will also be in a tough spot at running back with Dufrene taking over the No. 1 spot on the depth chart. Not because of his speed, there is plenty of that to go around. Dufrene does not seem willing to run between the tackles for the tough yards. Especially against a Tigers’ defense that allowed just 118.8 yards per game and 81 first downs on the ground in all of 2007.
As far as the Missouri offense goes, Daniel will still be the man under center. He’ll also have Jeremy Maclin to pass/hand off to this year. Maclin led the team in total touchdowns at 13 and was the top receiver, snaring 80 passes for 1,055 yards. It could be a banner day for this duo considering that the Illini gave up 240.9 YPG through the air last season. And Illinois is return just half of its secondary this season.
The Tigers have held control of this series for a while as evidenced by their 5-2 record SU while going 6-1 ATS since 1991. Plus, Gary Pinkel has done well in Week 1 for Mizzou, going 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in season openers.
ESPN will be broadcasting this game nationally, starting at 8:30 pm EDT.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
