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Could the Pirates make it two straight upsets?
That is the question on the minds of fans and the gambling public alike. By the looks of where the money is going, there is a line definitely drawn in the stand on this game in Greenville, North Carolina.
West Virginia was installed as the favorite from the onset, starting as a 10 ½-point road “chalk” at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. That line has now shrunk to eight in favor of the Mountaineers. The total has stayed in the 50 to 51 ½ range amongst sportsbooks offshore and in Vegas.
Given that information, you can easily guess that the Mountaineers are getting the public’s blessing as far as the spread goes…Sportsbook.com shows 77 percent of the ATS money is going towards the blue and old gold. Meanwhile, East Carolina is the favorite amongst bettors for the outright upset as 84 percent of the cash is going its way for a return of plus 270 (risk $100 to win $270).
It’s hard to argue with that kind of value on the Pirates when you think they can pull off another upset in the BCS apple cart. What you can debate is how well will ECU be able to stifle the Mountaineers’ offensive attack.
East Carolina had no problems in snuffing out the Hokies’ Sean Glennon, allowing the hurler to connect on 14 of 23 passes for 139 with a pair of interceptions. The Pirates even beat Virginia Tech by its own game last week with a blocked punt for a touchdown in the waning minutes of regulation.
Patrick Pinkney was practically automatic under center for ECU by completing 19 of 23 passes for 211 yards and a score. He was also evading the pressure by rushing 11 times for another 24 yards with a touchdown.
The Pirates’ defense held their own against Virginia Tech as well, allowing just five of 12 third downs to be converted all game long. And letting the Hokies move the chains 12 times total. That’s what happens when you have nine disciplined starters return on defense.
As disciplined as ECU is on defense, they are going to have a problem when taking on the West Virginia and its powerful offense.
Patrick White was on his game against Villanova last Saturday as evidenced by connecting on 25 of 33 passes for 208 yards and five touchdowns. The Mountaineers’ ground weapon, Noel Divine, added 47 yards on nine carries.
West Virginia’s defense did nothing to impress anyone last week against the Wildcats. After all, they allowed 399 yards and saw ‘Nova pick up 28 first downs (WVU got a fresh set of downs just 21 times).
The biggest matchup in this contest is whether or not the Pirates are able to stifle White and the speed his squad possesses.
Sure, West Virginia has Devine to go along with wideouts Jock Sanders and Alric Arnett. Yet the Mountaineers’ offense goes nowhere without White taking the snaps. Look no further than WVU’s defeat at home to Pittsburgh last winter (five of 10 passing for 50 yards with a dislocated thumb) for proof of his importance to this program.
Expect East Carolina to try and bring a constant pass rush in this contest, while keeping the secondary in zone coverage. What this will do is force White to hold onto the ball as much as possible to either run on his own or complete short passes. This gameplan sounds good on paper, but you have to remember that the ‘Neers return all five starters on the offensive line. That means White should have plenty of time to find an open receiver.
History for the Pirates isn’t exactly a gimme to win on their home turf in openers as dictated by posting a 10-7 SU record. However, the home team has been able to cover the line at a nice clip, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight contests. The ‘under’ has hit in the last three meetings as well.
ESPN will be broadcasting this tilt at 4:30 pm EDT.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
