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Miami at Florida
September 5, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is crushing the books with an 8-1 record (89%, +690!) in college football, leading all VI 'cappers in units earned. Click to win for more winners now!
N ormally I write an objective preview, weighing the pros and cons of betting one way or the other. Not this time, not this game.
This preview is all about informing gamblers that the Gators are going to deliver woodshed treatment at The Swamp on Saturday night. It says here that you can count on it.
Yes, the number is huge. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) as an 18 ½-point favorite with a total of 50. Since then, heavy public action on UF has sent the number north of 21.
As of Friday morning, most books had the Gators in the 22-23 range. Miami (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) is such a huge underdog that there’s no money-line price to be found.
Just how long has it been since the Hurricanes have been such heavy underdogs? They were 22-point ‘dogs at Florida St. in 1997. There was a good reason for it, too, as the Seminoles issued cream-cheese treatment, spanking UM by a 47-0 count.
Since 1980, the ‘Canes have been underdogs of 20 points or more just twice. The other time was also in Tallahassee in 1995 when the ‘Noles won (and covered) 41-17 as 20-point ‘chalk.’
Florida hasn’t tasted victory against Miami since 1985 when Kerwin Bell led the Gators to a 35-23 triumph at the Orange Bowl. That statement is a tad misleading since the bitter rivals have only met six times in the last 23 years, but the point is still valid – UF fans aren’t just starving for a win over Miami; they are salivating at the prospects of an absolute shellacking.
UM beat UF in ’86 and ’87, but then the rivalry went doormat for more than a decade. Starting at the 2001 Sugar Bowl, these adversaries have met four times and on each occasion, the ‘Canes have dealt the Gators a painful defeat.
It started in New Orleans on Bourbon Street – literally. A few days before the Sugar Bowl, the teams brawled in the French Quarter and Florida All-American defensive end Alex Brown came away with a black eye.
Steve Spurrier’s team took a 20-17 lead against Miami midway through the third quarter on a long touchdown run by Earnest Graham. However, the ‘Canes would score 20 unanswered points and win 37-20.
Two seasons later in the second game of Ron Zook’s tenure, Miami held a 27-16 advantage late in the third quarter. UF appeared poised to make it a one-possession game when it drove into the red zone and had a first-and-goal opportunity. But two plays later, Rex Grossman threw a pick-six and the game was over for all intents and purposes.
When the horn sounded, Miami had a 41-16 victory. Therefore, the Gators lost by 25 points in Zook’s second home game. During Spurrier’s 12-year tenure, UF lost five home games by a combined 25 points.
The following season, Florida went to the Orange Bowl as a 14-point underdog, but it took a commanding 33-10 lead in the third quarter. It wasn’t to be, though.
Former Gator Brock Berlin, who transferred to UM when he couldn’t beat out Grossman, guided the ‘Canes to an improbable comeback. When Miami completed its rally for a 38-33 victory, Berlin mocked the UF faithful with a sarcastic Gator chop.
Next, the teams were matched up at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta to conclude the 2004 campaign. Zook had been fired and then hired by Illinois. Urban Meyer was in place to supplant Zook, but he was getting Utah ready to play Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.
With Charlie Strong as the interim coach, the Gators got drilled 27-10 in a lackluster effort.
And that brings us to 2008. FSU and Miami, perennial top 10 teams during the ‘80s, ‘90s and the earlier part of this decade, are uncharacteristically down. Meanwhile, the Gators are in top form, considered a serious candidate to win their second national title in three years.
Miami is coming off its worst season in 30 years, limping to a 5-7 record in Randy Shannon’s first season at the helm. The Gators are clearly the best program in the Sunshine State, yet they haven’t had the chance to prove that to Miami on the field.
They get that chance Saturday night, and let’s not underestimate the “night” factor. The Swamp is electric under the lights and the ‘Canes will be greeted by a raucous crowd.
Florida opened the season by trashing Hawaii 56-10 as a 35-point favorite last Saturday. The Gators were held scoreless in both the first and fourth quarters, but they dented the scoreboard for nine touchdowns in the second and third.
Even with pre-season All-Americans Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes out of the lineup, the Warriors were no match for UF. The Gators displayed a pair of new weapons in redshirt freshman RB Chris Rainey and true freshman RB Jeff Demps.
Both players possess one main ingredient – speed. Rainey had six carries for 58 yards, including a 33-yard TD run. Demps had just two carries but went for 76 yards, including an electrifying 62-yard TD scamper. Brandon James was also in the mix, scoring on a one-yard plunge and a 74-yard punt return.
Miami beat up on Charleston Southern 52-7 in its non-lined opener last Thursday. Graig Cooper had a 14-yard TD run and also scored on a 66-yard punt return. True freshman QB Jacory Harris ran for a score and threw for another. Javarris James led UM in rushing with 73 yards on just 12 totes.
Harris got the starting nod last week, but Shannon is expected to go with redshirt freshman Robert Marve as his starter this week. Marve served a one-game suspension against Charleston So.
As for the Gators, they are expected to have both Spikes and Harvin back in the mix.
ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--I like the Gators here because I feel they’re that much better than Miami. The revenge thing certainly helps as well, and this spot also fits another of my favorite handicapping strategies – fading a freshman QB making his first career start on the road. In this scenario, we not only have that, but we have Marve taking his first collegiate snap of any sort at The Swamp in front of a frenzied crowd.
--According to VI’s Marc Lawrence, Urban Meyer’s teams (at UF, Utah and Bowling Green) are 18-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home against non-conference foes.
--When favored by 20 points or more during Meyer’s tenure, the Gators are 6-5 ATS.
--West Virginia is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a road favorite.
--Rice owns a 14-5 spread record in its last 19 games as an underdog. The Owls, who have one of the best QB-WR tandems in the country in Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard, are plus three at Memphis.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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