Three games dot the college football landscape during the week this time around, and after looking up and down the board at those three contests, I cannot see a good reason to place a bet on any of the three. So, I will be passing on the early games this week and focusing only on Saturday's action, but in the meantime I did want to give you some important things to look at in regards to the six teams playing this Wednesday through Friday. Even without a bet on a game, important things can still be learned, and these are the things I am looking for in each particular game.
Kansas State at Louisville - As I mentioned at the VegasInsider.com seminar here in Las Vegas, KSU Coach Ron Price wants to win and win now, as he has taken a page out of former Wildcat coach Bill Snyder's playbook and gone the JUCO route in his recruiting. In fact, junior college players make up no less than 18 of the top 20 KSU recruits this season, an unheard of figure for a BCS conference team. That shows me that Price is looking for big things THIS year, not worrying as much about building for the future. So far KSU has feasted on a couple of patsies, but now Louisville does represent a step up.
The question is just how big of a step up? Remember that the Cardinals were held to TWO points against Kentucky in the first week of the season before getting healthy in their last game, albeit against a 1-AA (FCS) foe. Steve Kragthorpe is a good coach, but after a 6-6 season a year ago and only one game (vs. Syracuse) left on this year's schedule that can be considered a "sure" win, one wonders if Bobby Petrino knew what he was doing when he left Louisville.
These two teams met two years ago and L’ville won 24-6 in Manhattan, and current starter (then backup) Hunter Cantwell was at the controls. That was the lowest output of the season for the Cardinals that year. How many points the Cards score here will be a very important indicator for both teams. If the Cats are able to calm the Redbirds that will show that the JUCO infusion really worked, and that the season ending 167 points allowed in three games last year has been fixed. That will also show that the U of L offense will more resemble the two point production of Week One than the huge outbursts of the next week. On the other hand, if the L’ville offense explodes, KSU is in trouble when conference season rolls around, while U of L might have some hope of sneaking into a bowl. With so much up in the air this will not be a game I bet on, but I will learn something.
As for Thursday's game, this will test the mettle of the Bill Stewart regime at West Virginia. They have had two weeks to get their kids ready and refocused after the (well deserved, -8 FD's, -137 yards) loss to East Carolina in Week Two. This is a CU team that, at full mental state, they should beat, as the Mounties have the better football players on their team and have more overall speed than the Buffs. Looking at CU, they were not at all dominant against a bad Colorado State team in the opener, and needed some fourth quarter magic to hold off FCS foe Eastern Washington in the second game. Dan Hawkins is only 2-4 ATS as a home dog for CU as well. Right now I have both of these teams in the "Minus/Go Against" column on my big board, so no play, but if CU shows any signs of life I am going to be on them pretty strong against Florida State the next week.
Finally, the Friday game pits Baylor at Connecticut. I keep waiting for the right time to go against this fraud of a UConn team, and I did have a small play on Temple (+) against the Huskies in Week Two. However, this is not the spot, as this is Baylor's first road game for coach Briles, and in his last stint at Houston his teams were 1-6 ATS as away dogs the first two seasons, and that was with a true frosh (Kevin Kolb) starting at QB, the same situation the Bears are in now with Robert Griffin. No play on this one for me, but I hope UConn destroys the Bears, as it sets up better line value going against them in the future. This team WILL be exposed, it is just a matter of when, and I will be waiting!
Make sure to check out my page on Friday Night and/or Saturday morning for this week's releases. I am hitting 58% (15-11, +2.9 Units) on the year. I will have a big card up this Saturday including my Top Play of the Day up on the Pay after You Win Basis. Regrettably, last Saturday's POW was UCLA, but over the last three seasons combined I am 30-22 (58%, +5.8 Units) on Guaranteed College Football Plays.
