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USC at Oregon St.
September 25, 2008
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Christian Alexander has a 15-8 overall record (65%, +620) in college football this season, including a 3-1 mark on Thursdays. Click to win now with this week's winner!
#1 Southern California (2-0, 0-0 Pac 10) at Oregon State (1-2, 0-1 Pac 10) Thursday, September 25 9:00 PM ESPN Reser Stadium (FieldTurf) Sports.com Line: Southern California -25.5, O/U 51.5
Y ou have to feel a bit sorry for West Virginia don’t you? First they lose out on a chance to play for the national championship last season by choking big time against Pittsburgh. Then their coach and native son Rich Rodriguez bolts for Michigan and now Rodriguez’s replacement – Bill Stewart – seems unable to build on the success the Mountaineers had established in Morgantown.
That’s actually putting it too kindly. In other words, Stewart appears to have the program headed in reverse. Last Thursday night the Mountaineers took another step in the wrong direction by losing on the road to Colorado. Granted, the Buffaloes are improving and can hold their own at home but it sure looked like West Virginia was the more talented team.
While it pains me (not really) to be the beneficiary of such a train wreck, I’ll certainly take the W and the profits and I’m guessing so will you. The Colorado (+3) winner last week brings my Thursday night record this season to 3-1.
Looking ahead to this week, we get a chance to travel further west and get an opportunity to check out the #1 ranked team in the country.
I went to Southern Cal’s season opener, at Virginia, and let me assure you, this team is for real. Granted, their opponent that day was clearly one of the 10 worst teams in Division 1-A football this season, but still, even a casual observer had to notice the talent of the Trojans.
This Thursday night, coach Pete Carroll and Southern Cal will try to remain undefeated as they visit Oregon State. It might sound silly to say the Trojans will try to remain undefeated. after all, they are favored by over 25 points. Then again, just remember what happened the last time USC paid a visit to Corvallis.
In 2006, Oregon State snapped the Trojans' 27-game Pacific 10 Conference winning streak with a stunning 33-31 defeat of the #3 team in the country. That night – besides denying USC a two-point conversion in the final seconds - the Beavers forced four turnovers and dominated on special teams, elements that will surely have to go their way again this time if they are to pull another shocker.
This time around, coach Mike Riley and his program will try to become only the second team in the 115-year history of Oregon State football to defeat a #1 team. The first time you ask? The 1967 OSU team took down O.J. Simpson and #1 ranked Southern Cal Trojans 3-0.
One thing I can virtually guarantee you off this Thursday night. This game will have a lot more points scored than just three. Although the forecast says it may rain a bit on Thursday in Corvallis, it should be cleared up by game time and besides, it will take a lot more than a few drops of moisture to slow down these Trojans.
The bright spot – among many – thus far for USC has been the play of QB Mark Sanchez. It would be unfair to label Sanchez as a question mark heading into this season because his talent has long been obvious. That said, as he began his first full season as a starter, there were those that wondered if he could live up to the accomplishments of recent USC QB’s such as Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart – both Heisman winners.
So far, so good.
To date, Sanchez has taken home the hardware for Pac-10 offensive player of the week after both outings this season – the aforementioned demolition of Virginia (52-7) and an equally impressive destruction of Ohio State (35-3). He is 15th nationally in passing efficiency (166.6 rating) and has seven TD passes against just two interceptions while completing 43 of 63 passes (68.2)for 510 yards.
The play of Sanchez has taken away most of the spotlight that was originally planned to go on the plethora of talented running backs at Southern Cal. The group certainly hasn’t disappointed on the field. Simply put, Joe McKnight (18 rushes/165 yards), C.J. Gable (13 rushes/91 yards), Allen Bradford (14 rushes/57 yards), and Stafon Johnson (13 rushes/51 yards) give Carroll an embarrassment of talent at the running back position and numerous weapons to burn defenses.
As is usually the case with teams loaded with offensive talent, those players get the bulk of the media attention. But make no mistake, this team is equally as good on defense.
Anyone that saw LB Rey Maualuga return an interception 48 yards for a touchdown against Ohio State got a brief glimpse of probably the best defensive player in the nation this season. Maualuga and LB Brian Cushing, another lock for All-American make for one the fiercest LB tandems in college football.
What really makes things not fair is that Maualuga and Cushing sit behind a rock solid defensive line loaded with defensive ends Kyle Moore and Everson Griffen and tackles Averell Spicer and Fili Moala. The dominating play of that line often leaves Maualuga and Cushing free to roam and do what they do best – disrupt an offense.
Having talent like that goes a long way in explaining how Carroll is 78-14 (.848) since heading to L.A. to take over the program in 2001. That’s the best winning percentage of any current Division I coach with at least five years experience and remember, that’s taking into account Carroll’s first year on the job when he went 6-6. Do the math on that and you’ll find that in the six seasons plus since that inaugural campaign Carroll has only dropped eight games, and those losses coming by a combined total of 30 points (3.75 average). Staggering.
With that detail on the table, it should really come as no surprise that even with a nice home field advantage – and trust me, Reser Stadium will be rocking Thursday night – the Beavers have quite a hill to climb if they’re going to shock the world again.
Let’s not forget, this team already has two losses and while one of the those was expected (45-14 loss at Penn State) the other was a disappointing start to the season when they lost at Stanford 36-28. Oregon State got back on track last time out with an easy win over Hawaii (45-7) but they obviously know it will take much more to win this game.
To have a chance, the Beavers simply must get production from starting QB Lyle Moevao and the aerial attack. With WR’s Shane Morales and Sammie Stroughter, Moevao has the weapons to punish a secondary but they main question is will he have the time to allow his receivers to get open or will he be running for his life…or flat on his back.
With time, Moevao should be able to connect with Morales and Stroughter, currently the top receiving tandem in the Pac-10 with 43 receptions for 539 yards and five touchdowns.
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