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Clemson at Wake Forest
October 9, 2008
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Click to win now with Thursday's pick pack from Christian Alexander.
Clemson (3-2, 1-1 ACC) at #21 Wake Forest (3-1, 1-0 ACC) Thursday, October 9 7:30 PM ESPN Groves Stadium (Natural Grass) Sports.com Line: Wake Forest -2.5, O/U 43.5
L ast Thursday night Pittsburgh certainly didn’t look like a team that had lost to Bowling Green and had struggled to beat Buffalo and Syracuse.
No, I’d say coach Dave Wannstedt’s crew looked pretty sharp when they traveled down to Tampa and beat the South Florida Bulls as 13.5 point underdogs. It was a much needed win for Wannstedt and Pitt as they now have the early lead in the race for the Big East title.
It was not, however, a much needed loss for me. Obviously, no loss is ever needed but this one hurt even more as it dropped me back to sea level (3-3) on Thursdays after a good start to the year.
Oh well, no time like the present to put together another winning streak.
I’ll try to do that this Thursday as the Clemson Tigers (3-2, 1-1) pay a visit to Winston-Salem, N.C., to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-1, 1-0).
Before the season started, both teams had this game circled as a crucial matchup. That’s mainly because the ACC media predicted Clemson to finish #1 and Wake to finish #2 in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division title. Wake has extra incentive considering Clemson took them out to the woodshed last year when the Tigers outclassed the Demon Deacons in every facet, running away with a 44-10 win.
While this game will still likely play a huge role in deciding the Atlantic Division, neither team has been overly impressive thus far this season, especially lately.
The Tigers started the year on an awful note when Alabama crushed them 34-10 in a game played in Atlanta and one in which Clemson was favored. Granted, now that we know how strong the Tide is, they obviously should have been favored but either way, a team that has BCS aspirations – as Clemson did to start the year – shouldn’t let anyone pound them that badly.
Clemson was then able to right the ship and reel off three wins against mediocre-to-poor competition. However, the Tigers ran into a stumbling block last time out against Maryland on September 27.
Despite building an 11-point halftime lead, they self-destructed in the second half, committing a season-high three turnovers en route to a 20-17 loss. When running back C.J. Spiller had a 60-yard touchdown run in the second half wiped out by a holding penalty, you just knew it wasn’t meant to be Clemson’s day.
And so with nearly two weeks to stew on that unexpected loss – Clemson was favored by 11 – the Tigers know they can ill afford to drop another conference game if they want to be serious contenders in the Atlantic Division.
Wake Forest is plenty familiar with unexpected losses, having just encountered one themselves last time out.
While I’m sure coach Jim Grobe would never admit that his team was looking past Navy, the fact remains that after starting the season with a perfect 3-0 record, including an impressive win at Florida State, most everyone agreed the Deacs would take care of the Midshipmen. The oddsmakers certainly seemed to agree as Wake went off as a 16-point favorite.
However, Wake’s normally mistake-free QB, Riley Skinner, had one of the worst games of his college career, throwing four interceptions and fumbling once in a shocking 24-17 home loss to Navy. Just how out of character was that performance by Skinner? Consider that junior signal caller led all D-1 A teams in 2007 in completion percentage at 72.4% and had a streak of 133 passes without an interception before going up against the Midshipmen.
But as there always seems to be, there was plenty of blame to spread around in the Wake locker room.
The entire defense and especially the defensive line won’t have fond memories of the Navy game, that’s for sure. The Middies gouged Wake for 292 yards rushing after that unit had only surrendered 303 in the previous three games combined.
And that stat will certainly temper expectations for Wake fans as they enter this Thursday night’s game against Clemson.
That’s because, as all ACC football fans know, if your team is struggling against the run the last club you want to face is Clemson, a team that sports the best 1-2 running back punch in the country.
By now, RB’s James Davis and C.J. Spiller are household names in the realm of college football. Together, this duo powers a Clemson offense that is averaging nearly 166 yards on the ground.
Davis is the starter and more of the workhorse, with 14 100-yard rushing games in his career. The senior is averaging more than six yards a carry this season and his next rushing touchdown will set a school career record of 42.
Meanwhile, the electric Spiller is the teams designated home run threat. The speedster has 11 touchdown runs of 50 yards or more in his career and currently ranks 10th in the ACC in rushing with an average of just under 61 yards a game.
And if those two aren’t enough to give Wake fans heart palpitations, then remember that the Tigers have a pretty decent QB in Cullen Harper who is throwing for roughly 190 yards a game and a big-play WR in Aaron Kelly who needs just over 400 yards to become Clemson's all-time leader in receiving yards.
All that said, Clemson fans would be quick to remind you that Tommy Bowden has been loaded with talent before and for some reason just can’t turn it into a consistent winner. The coach is 7-2 in his career against Wake Forest but has lost two of the last three visits to Winston-Salem and it’s also important to remember the Tigers are playing their first true road game of 2008.
Almost the opposite of Clemson, Wake will try to counter with the ACC's top passer in Skinner (244 ypg) and main target WR D.J. Boldin (28 catches, 276 yards). That pair will almost certainly have to be productive to make up for the lack of a running game for Wake Forest. The Deacons ground attack, led by RB Josh Adams, is averaging less than 85 yards a game, good for just 11th in the ACC.
To win this game, Wake will surely have to find a way to limit the damage from Davis and Spiller and also get Adams on track. They will also have to figure out a way to reverse a disturbing trend for ranked teams on Thursday nights thus far in 2008.
So far this season, four ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents on Thursday nights games. Vanderbilt defeated South Carolina (#24) 24-17 on September 4th, Colorado nipped West Virginia (#21) 17-14 on September 18th , Oregon State rocked the college football world when they took down #1 Southern California 27-21 on September 25th , and finally last week we had the aforementioned Pittsburgh win 26-21 at South Florida (#10).
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