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LSU at Florida
October 11, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is No. 1 on VI in college football guaranteed picks, posting a 13-7 record (65%, +530!) to date. Click to win now with Brian's guarantee for tonight!
W hen Florida and LSU met in Baton Rouge last season, the Gators held three separate double-digit leads and were seemingly in control all night long. However, Les Miles elected to go for it on fourth down five times, and his Tigers hooked him up with the needed yardage every time.
Jacob Hester’s two-yard plunge into the end zone with 1:09 left proved to be the game-winning touchdown in a 28-24 LSU victory. The Gators covered the spread, however, as eight-point road underdogs.
With revenge on its mind, Florida (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) will play host to LSU on Saturday night at The Swamp in Gainesville.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened UF as a six-point favorite with a total of 49 ½. As of early this morning, most books had the Gators at 6 1/2 with the total adjusted into the 46-47 range. LSU is plus 200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).
Urban Meyer’s team is coming off a 38-7 win at Arkansas as a 26-point favorite. UF backers got a miracle spread cover thanks to a 48-yard touchdown run by Jeffrey Demps with 1:04 remaining. Demps and fellow freshman running back Chris Rainey ran for 103 yards apiece.
Tim Tebow threw for 217 yards and a pair of TDs, including a 21-yard scoring strike to junior WR Percy Harvin. But Tebow saw his school-record of 203 passes without an interception snapped when he threw a second-quarter pick.
LSU (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) had an open date to get healthy and prep for the Gators. In their last outing, the Tigers beat Mississippi St. by a 34-24 count, but they failed to take the cash as 23-point home favorites.
Charles Scott was the catalyst against the Bulldogs, rushing for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Jarrett Lee completed 18-of-27 passes for 261 yards, two TDs and one interception.
Lee secured the QB job thanks to his second-half effort in a 26-21 win at Auburn on Sep. 20. Lee, who didn’t complete a pass and threw a pick-six in the first half, recovered to throw for 182 yards and a pair of TDs. His 18-yard scoring strike to Brandon LaFell was the game-winner and capped LSU’s comeback on the Plains with 1:03 remaining.
Scott is enjoying a monster season to date, rushing 71 times for 535 yards and six TDs. He’s been so effective with his 7.5 yards per carry average that Miles hasn’t even had to show off his depth at the RB position. Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy are both able replacements, but they have combined for only 28 totes so far.
When LSU throws, it has a pair of big-time targets in LaFell and Demetrius Byrd. LaFell has 22 catches for 348 yards and three TDs, while Byrd has 10 receptions for 153 yards and three TDs.
The Florida offense is averaging an SEC-best 36 points per game, but you get the sense that this unit hasn’t performed anywhere near its potential – yet. Tebow certainly isn’t putting up the huge numbers that made him the Heisman winner in 2007, but you can’t knock his 8/1 touchdown-interception ratio.
UF still hasn’t developed a between-the-tackles runner besides Tebow. USC transfer Emmanuel Moody was supposed to be that guy, but he didn’t get much playing time early in the year. Just when he seemed to be coming around after a nine-carry, 55-yard effort in a 30-6 win at Tennessee, Moody sprained his ankle in UF’s 31-30 loss to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago.
Moody is “out” again this week after missing the win over the Razorbacks.
Harvin missed the season opener and most of pre-season practice recovering from surgery on his heel last spring. Then he sprained his ankle last week at Arkansas. Harvin missed practice Monday and Tuesday, but he did limited work Wednesday and according to the Gainesville Sun, Meyer said he “looked good” at Thursday’s practice.
Harvin has 27 carries for 177 yards and two TDs. That’s good for a 6.6 yards per carry average. He has 19 receptions for 284 yards and three TDs.
Along with Moody, Florida LB Dustin Doe is also “out” this week with a sports hernia. On the bright side, senior OG Jim Tartt is “probable” after missing most of the last two games with a shoulder injury.
LSU’s Andrew Hatch, who was splitting time at QB with Lee before suffering a concussion at Auburn, is “probable” but probably won’t play unless Lee gets injured. LB Darry Beckwith is set to return to the lineup after missing two games with a knee injury. Junior DT Ricky Jean-Francois did make the trip due to groin injury.
Gamblers shouldn't be surprised if special teams play a vital role in this contest. UF's Brandon James is third in the nation in punt return average (14.8) and is tied for first among active players in career punt returns for a TD (4). LSU's Trindon Holliday is also a home-run threat on special teams.
Colt David is second in LSU history with 307 career points. The senior place-kicker is third in school history in career field goals (44).
Florida kicker Jonathan Phillips is 6-for-6 on field-goal attempts this season.
CBS will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Florida owns a 4-0 record both SU and ATS as a single-digit home favorite during Meyer’s four-year tenure.
--LSU hasn’t been an underdog since its last trip to The Swamp when it lost 23-10 as a one-point ‘dog. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS as underdogs during Miles’ four-year tenure.
--Even if UF loses to LSU, it will still be alive in the SEC East race. In fact, the Gators will still control their own destiny assuming Vandy loses one SEC game other than against Florida.
--For his career, Tebow has an incredible 45/8 TD-INT ratio. He also has 33 career rushing TDs.
--UF leads the all-time series 28-23-3, but LSU is 2-1 since Miles and Meyer both took over the respective programs in 2005.
--LSU has won three of the last four meetings, including two of the last three at The Swamp.
--Click here to check out more SEC Nuggets. Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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