The first BCS rankings will be announced next week and it will be interesting to see how the formula grades the various one-loss teams as well as the remaining unbeaten teams. The debates will continue about whether it is better to lose to a quality team or be upset by a mediocre team will go on as will debating the importance of timing of various losses. The remaining teams in contention have a long road to go even though we have passed the midpoint of the season. Several teams will still stumble and sometimes the tough spots are not the obvious games. This article examines some potential tough spots for most of the BCS championship contenders.

Alabama – The Crimson Tide are off to a great start to the season and the schedule puts the Tide in the SEC driver’s seat. Alabama should be favored in every game until visiting LSU and if they are still undefeated they could even be favorites in Baton Rouge. The game that Alabama could get caught is the prior week at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves do not figure to be an upset threat but Alabama did lose to a Sun Belt team last season. Facing Arkansas State in between SEC games against Tennessee and LSU makes for a tough situation and to make matters worse Arkansas State will have a bye week before this game and will pour everything into the game. PLAY AGAINST ALABAMA: 11/1 vs. Arkansas State

Florida – The Gators are still alive in the national title hunt despite an early season loss and the big game with Georgia will be critical for both teams, serving as a possible elimination game in the national picture. The game comes in a good spot for Florida but the problem spot for the Gators could come against Vanderbilt the following week. Vanderbilt has proven to be a game underdog already this season with several early upsets. The Commodores have had success in this series and they have a bye week prior to the game.
PLAY AGAINST FLORIDA: 11/8 at Vanderbilt

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Georgia – The Bulldogs will face a brutal schedule in the coming weeks and a number of different games could lead to losses. The best ATS situation to go against Georgia may be against a solid Kentucky defense in a game that will be the third straight non-home game for the Bulldogs. Auburn will be next on the schedule and Kentucky will be ready after a narrow loss at Georgia last season.
PLAY AGAINST GEORGIA: 11/8 at Kentucky

LSU – The Tigers were soundly defeated by Florida but the remaining schedule is more favorable for the Tigers with the toughest opponents coming at home. LSU hosts both Georgia and Alabama and although this team does not look like the same caliber squad that made a title run last year they are still a threat to get there. LSU could fall in one of the tough early season match-ups but the best ATS situation to go against LSU might be the end of the season game with Arkansas. The Razorbacks should be showing improvement and it could be a letdown spot on the road if LSU survives the earlier tough games. PLAY AGAINST LSU: 11/29 at Arkansas

Missouri – Last week’s loss was crushing for the Tigers but if they can make a quick rebound and knock off Texas this week the schedule will be very favorable down the stretch. The Tigers would then get another shot at the Big 12 championship game and winning that game looks like a solid path to the BCS title game given the strength of the conference this season. The problem spot for the Tigers likely comes the week after the Texas game win or lose. If Missouri beats Texas it will be a tough follow-up after beating the #1 team in the nation. If Missouri loses it could be tough to get this team back to a high level of intensity and focus after having all the season’s dreams collapse. Colorado does not have a great record through a tough schedule but the Buffaloes are a solid team that could put up points against Missouri’s vulnerable pass defense. PLAY AGAINST MISSOURI: 11/15 vs. Colorado

Ohio State – The Buckeyes are very much alive in the national title hunt although many loathe the thought of Ohio State making a third straight title game appearance. Losing at USC early in the season, even in a blowout, should not hurt the chances if the Buckeyes can run the table in the Big Ten. The next two weeks feature key games for the Buckeyes but the trap game will be at Illinois on November 15th. Even though this is a revenge game for Ohio State it will be tough to face a second straight road game late in the season. The annual Michigan game will close the season the following week and with the Illini sporting a .500 record at this point it will be hard to take them as seriously as they should. PLAY AGAINST OHIO STATE: 11/15 vs. at Illinois

Oklahoma – Despite losing to Texas, the Sooners might have an easier time getting to the Big 12 Championship game. Texas has three tough Big 12 road games remaining while Oklahoma has its toughest games at home before facing Oklahoma State on the road at the end of the year. The Sooners also miss Missouri on the schedule this season while Texas faces the Tigers this week. Assuming the Sooners recover quickly from last week’s dejection, the toughest game will be the final game against the state rival Cowboys. OU has struggled in Stillwater in recent history and the Sooners will face Texas Tech the week before. Oklahoma State is undefeated but given the schedule the next few weeks the Cowboys will likely have a loss or two and will not have the national presence that Texas Tech should have. PLAY AGAINST OKLAHOMA: 11/29 at Oklahoma State

Penn State – It should really not be much of a surprise that Penn State is undefeated at this point in the season. The surprise is that they are the lone undefeated team in the Big Ten and they have climbed into the top 3 of the national rankings. Penn State has dominant numbers this season but schedule has not been impressive. The best win came last week but the Lions were very fortunate with field position against Wisconsin and caught the Badgers in a tough emotional spot after back-to-back narrow losses. The obvious spot for a possible loss is in two weeks playing at Ohio State but this week’s game against Michigan could also be dangerous. The Wolverines are in bad shape as the ugly losses attest but the Wolverine defense is still very good and should limit Penn State, particularly on the ground. This is a tough sandwich game for Penn State and if the Michigan offense avoids turnovers this will be a close game. PLAY AGAINST PENN STATE: 10/18 vs. Michigan

Texas – The Longhorns face a brutal gauntlet of Big 12 games with Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech all in consecutive weeks. Texas was victorious in step one but sweeping those games will be very difficult. The toughest spot may be the lone home game, facing Oklahoma State as the spread would be inflated should Texas knock Missouri this week. Texas is a tough team to play at home but the game could fall in a good situation for the Cowboys, sandwiched in between games against Big 12 lightweights Baylor and Iowa State. PLAY AGAINST TEXAS: 10/25 vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Tech – The Red Raiders likely do not belong on this list as they have played a ridiculously weak schedule so far this season. Things will get tougher although overall the schedule is much more favorable then some of the other top teams in the conference. Tech has not been a strong road team and playing at Kansas could be a problematic situation in two weeks, facing a second straight road contest. It will be the third road game in four weeks for the Red Raiders and a home game against Texas is waiting the next week for a possible look-ahead spot. PLAY AGAINST TEXAS TECH: 10/25 at Kansas

USC – With Oregon and Arizona State out of the way in convincing fashion it appears to be smooth sailing for USC the rest of the season. That may not be the case however as USC has proven to occasionally struggle on the road in conference and it will be every opponent’s biggest game of the season. Arizona is an improved team in the Pac-10 and the Wildcats might have the best situation to face USC, catching the Trojans on the road for the second straight week. If Arizona loses against Cal there could be excellent value on the underdog. PLAY AGAINST USC: 10/25 at Arizona

We are omitting a few teams that do have legitimate chances to make the title game but this group includes the strongest threats. Every team will have an unexpected tough game at some point and we expect those situations listed to be good spots for the opponents, most of which will be solid underdogs.