Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at West Virginia (4-2, 2-0 Big East)
Thursday, October 23
7:30 PM ESPN
Mountaineer Field (FieldTurf)
Sports.com Line: West Virginia -2.5, O/U 38

Editor's note: Click to win now with Christian Alexander's pick pack!

Now that we’re past the mid-point in October, we’re really starting to see some separation between the contenders and the pretenders. Heading into last Thursday night’s game, the BYU Cougars were a very trendy choice to run the table undefeated and crash the BCS party.

Then they paid a visit to TCU and got a taste of the nasty Horned Frogs defense. A 32-7 woodshed beating later and the Cougars moved from the contender column squarely into the pretender lane.

My play on TCU (PK) combined with the other game last Thursday night, where I had NC State (+11) in a contest the Wolfpack would ultimately lose to FSU 26-17, gave me a nice double-dip winner and took my Thursday night record to 6-3. If I can get another win this week, then I can hit 70% through the first nine weeks of the Thursday night season. That wouldn’t be too shabby.

But first things first, let’s take a look at tonight’s game featuring the Auburn Tigers paying a visit to West Virginia to face the Mountaineers.

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Entering this season, both West Virginia and Auburn had made some major coaching changes yet both programs were again expected to be top-10 teams and contend for a BCS berth. Like I said however, lots of contenders have been proven to be pretenders lately.

As everyone knows by now, the Mountaineers had to replace head coach Rich Rodriguez at the end of last season, opting to hand the program over to long-time assistant Bill Stewart. Despite an abundance of weapons and a proven system of success, Stewart decided to tweak the offense and the results thus far haven’t been positive.

Granted, not many teams could lose a player like RB Steve Slaton and not suffer some type of letdown but that doesn’t explain how the Mountaineers went from scoring 40+ points a game in 2007 to just 22 points a game thus far in 2008. That dramatic drop in offensive production certainly explains why West Virginia started the season 1-2, in the process falling out of the national rankings after a 46-week stay in the Top 25.

A mini three-game winning streak since that shaky start has somewhat quieted the Stewart skeptics but a shaky performance this Thursday night against Auburn and you can be sure the critics will be out in full force.

Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville definitely knows what those critics sound like. The Tigers were expected to be reborn this year on offense as Tuberville had brought in a spread offense guru, Tony Franklin to serve as the offensive coordinator.

But less than halfway through the season, with the Tigers averaging fewer than 20 points a game and fans howling for a change, Tuberville pulled the plug on Franklin in an attempt to revive the struggling Auburn offense. One thing is for sure this Thursday night, whichever coach leaves the field a loser will be sitting on a little warmer seat come Friday morning.

The key to this game will likely come down to quarterback play and turnovers.

West Virginia sorely missed QB Patrick White last week in an ugly 17-6 win over the 1-5 Syracuse Orangemen. White was forced to miss the game with a head injury but is expected to be ready to play this week.

With weapons such as WR Dorrell Jalloh and RB Noel Devine, WVU fans hope White can finally get the Mountaineers offense into high gear this season. It won’t be easy against an Auburn defense that is only allowing 108 yards a game rushing and 13.1 points per game.

It won’t be any easier for Auburn’s offense. Despite starting seven freshmen or sophomores, the West Virginia defense is allowing just 14.7 points per game.

Knowing that his team is 46-2 since 2002 when it wins the turnover battle, you can bet coach Bill Stewart will try a variety of blitzes out of its 3-3-5 stack defense to cause confusion for the Auburn offense and specifically QB Kodi Burns.

Auburn’s QB position has been such a weak spot this season that Tuberville has often gone to a two man system. However, with Chris Todd not expected to play because of a sore shoulder, Burns is likely to go the whole way this Thursday night. Then again, a shaky performance could cause Tuberville to look for other options.

Turnovers, nine interceptions and six lost fumbles, have been a real problem for Auburn and you can bet that West Virginia’s swarming defense will only be trying to continue those struggles for the Tigers.

These two teams have been two of the worst betting options so far this season with a combined 1-10 mark against the spread. West Virginia is 1-4 ATS and 1-2 at home while Auburn is 1-6 ATS and 0-2 on the road.