Editor's Note: Christian Alexander is back this week with his expert college football selections. Check out his take on Louisville-Rutgers by clicking on his Thursday pick pack!
Louisville (5-6, 1-5 Big East) at Rutgers (6-5, 4-2 Big East)
Thursday, December 4
7:30 PM ESPN
Rutgers Stadium (FieldTurf)
Sports.com Line: Rutgers -10, O/U 51
My quest for a 10-win season continues this Thursday night and the pressure is on with this being the last week of the regular season in college football. Of course, Texas and Texas A&M could have helped me reach 10 wins last Thursday night but the 49-9 final ended up 10 points shy of going over the 68 point total. The Longhorns did their part, as I figured they were good for about 50 points but it was the Aggies that let me down by only scoring nine points. That loss pushes my Thursday night record to 9-6 (60%) on the year.
Speaking of pressure, this Thursday night we get a chance to watch a team with its entire season on the line as the 5-6 Louisville Cardinals will battle to become bowl eligible and possibly continue their season as they take a trip up to New Jersey to face the red-hot Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.
Considering the stakes, coach Steve Kragthorpe and the Cardinals can’t be thrilled about having to face Rutgers.
We saw Rutgers earlier in the season when they were drilled by North Carolina 44-12 at home in just the second Thursday night game of the season. That was when coach Greg Schiano and the Knights were in the midst of a 1-5 start that caused many to question whether Rutgers was about to lapse back into losing seasons after all the progress that the coaching staff had made in recent years.
After a close loss at Cincinnati (13-10) on October 11, the Knights held on for a gutsy 12-10 win against Connecticut the following week and even if it wasn’t obvious to everyone, the turnaround to the 2008 season had begun.
That win over the Huskies began a five game winning streak that Rutgers is currently riding. And not only are the Scarlet Knights winning but they seem to be getting stronger each and every week. Their margin of victory during the five game winning streak has gone 2, 20, 17, 33, 27 for an average of nearly 20 points a game and a quick glance of the schedule shows you that it’s been well over a month since anyone has come within two touchdowns of Rutgers.
Contrast that recent performance with that of Louisville and it will quickly become obvious why the Cardinals are 10 point underdogs this Thursday night.
After defeating South Florida 24-20 on October 25, the Cardinals stood at 5-2 and were starting to make many view them as a contender to win the Big East. However, as quickly as Rutgers turned their season around and went on a winning streak, the wheels fell off for Kragthorpe and the Cardinals.
Since that win over the Bulls, Louisville has dropped four straight and with none of the losses coming by under a touchdown, it’s clear that something has gone terribly wrong for the Cardinals. The four-game losing streak for Louisville represents their longest stint of failure since going 1-10 in 1997.
And so fighting to give themselves any hope of continuing their season, Louisville will have to turn things around in a hurry this Thursday against Rutgers. The fact that the Cardinals will have to hit the road with their season on the line is an ominous one considering Kragthorpe’s only road victory in 2008 is a seven-point win over 6-6 Memphis from Conference USA.
On the bright side, Louisville does have some serious weapons on offense. Not only is QB Hunter Cantwell a legitimate NFL prospect but Victor Anderson leads a trio of dangerous running backs that give the Cardinals a nice 1-2 on the ground and through the air. That said, if Louisville’s recent struggles with critical mistakes via turnovers and costly penalties continue, it clearly won’t matter who is playing offense for the Cardinals.
Making matters worse for the Cardinals is that even if Cantwell and company can get on track and eliminate mistakes, they might not be able to keep with a Rutgers offense – and particularly their passing game – that is on a serious roll against a Louisville defense with a banged-up secondary that features a freshman cornerback and walk-on safeties as two of its starters.
Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel – who many suggested should take the bench earlier in the season – is now shredding defenses and with junior Scarlet Knights receiver Kenny Britt makes up one of the more dangerous combos in the nation. Britt leads the NCAA in receiving yards per game at 119 and has to be drooling at the prospect of facing a depleted Louisville secondary.
Don’t forget, while Louisville needs this game to become bowl eligible, Rutgers needs this game to cement the fact that they will be headed to a postseason game and with Teel and the 16 seniors making their last appearance at Rutgers Stadium, you can expect emotions to be running high this Thursday night.
Looking at the betting trends with these two teams, Louisville is 4-6 against the spread this season and only 1-2 on the road. The Cardinals have failed to cash a ticket in five straight games. Meanwhile, Rutgers is 6-4 ATS in 2008 with a 2-3 home record against the number and have made winners out of their backers in four straight games.
