Editor's note: Published 6/25; Updated 7/1.
I don’t need to tell you how important scheduling is for a team to win a national championship in college football. Our good friend Brian Edwards has already explained the importance of loading up your early slate with quality matchups.
The out-of-conference games that we’re seeing early this year will go a long way towards gaining some brownie points with the pollsters. Ohio State is doing its due diligence by taking on the Midshipmen and Trojans to open its campaign. Georgia is another club that is going for broke right out of the gate by opening its season in Stillwater against the Cowboys.
For every team going out of its way to schedule tougher competition to curry favor with the voters and computers, you’ll have some fill up on cupcakes. The Nittany Lions are in that group with fixtures against doormats Akron (5-7), Syracuse (3-9) and Temple (5-7) at Beaver Stadium.
You’ll even see a couple of Football Championship Subdivision sides come up to face the upper division. But don’t expect to see another upset like we had with Appalachian State beating the Wolverines in Ann Arbor back in 2007.
The majority of programs go in knowing that they want to play a decent non-conference schedule, but nothing too strenuous. So they’ll go out and set a match up with cellar dwellers from the other BCS Conferences.
Les Miles has chosen that route to open up Louisiana State’s season when they head west to Seattle for a clash with the Huskies on Sept. 5. It’s not like we can argue with that move really. Sure you’re traveling well outside of your fan base, but it’s Washington.
The Huskies have been one of the worst programs in the nation, posting an abysmal 0-12 mark last year and has won nine games since 2006. They ranked near dead last in total offense (263.17 YPG), total defense (451.75 YPG), scoring (13.25 PPG) and scoring defense (38.58 PPG) in 2008.
You can’t help but think that Washington is overmatched in this game. LSU might be coming off of a disappointing 8-5, but they have a lot of talent coming back. Jordan Jefferson looked good in his two starts at the end of last season (36 of 73 on pass attempts, 419 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception) and is No. 1 on the depth chart in 2009. Jefferson will have Brandon LaFell (829 receiving yards, 8 TD) back as his No. 1 receiver.
The Bayou Bengals will no doubt get back to a strong defense this year with six starters coming back for new defensive coordinator John Chavis. This is a unit that allowed 25 points per game last season. Not a bad number, but a down effort when you realize that they gave up just 16 PPG in each of the previous three campaigns.
The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay has put LSU as a 14-point road “chalk” for this season opener. Not a shock there really and bettors would certainly be just in back them in this spot. Yet there is a glimmer of hope for people wanting to play the underdog.
Washington is out from under the thumb of Ty Willingham and ushering in the Steve Sarkisian era. Sarkisian has been with Southern California for the last four years, running its offense in 2007 and 2008. Granted he had some of the best talent in the nation to run his pro-style attack, but “Sark” certainly has the know how to make the most of Huskie gunslinger Jake Locker’s ability.
The Huskies also have former Trojan DC Nick Holt handling their defense. He’s been very happy with what he has seen in spring training from his crew, which returns nine starters. While this is a unit that allowed the most points in school history in ’08, there will be a marked improvement on defense.
What that coaching duo does bring is confidence in facing upper-tier clubs from other BCS conferences. Southern Cal was 10-0 straight up, 9-1 against the spread when the played against BCS conference clubs in the regular season since 2005. While it is a pipe dream to think that Washington will pull off a big upset, they do have a reasonable chance of losing by less than double-digits.
Another strategy you see is a pair of middle-of-the-pack clubs from BCS conferences square off. It’s a great way to put a quality win on your schedule and it isn’t too bad setback should you wind up losing. That’s what Minnesota and California will be doing in Minneapolis on Sept. 19.
The Golden Bears will have already played against Maryland (Sept. 5) and Eastern Washington (Sept. 12) before heading out to the Twin Cities for their road battle of the season.
Jeff Tedford’s crew will no doubt feel confident heading into this contest with an offense that showcases a top running back like Jahvid Best in its backfield. Best was third in the nation in rushing last year with 1,580 yards on the ground to go along with 15 touchdowns.
What could prove to be an issue for Best is that Cal will be replacing first round NFL draft pick Alex Mack at center. Mack is just one of the three departures from an offensive line that let running backs average 5.6 yards per carry. Look for a healthy dose of the ground game as there are a lot of questions surrounding the ability of Kevin Riley (1,360 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT), who had issues with consistency during his sophomore year.
Luckily for the Bears, they’ll have one of the best secondary units in the country. Syd-Quan Thompson, Brett Johnson and Darian Hagan come back after ranking third in the nation with 24 total interceptions.
Cal will need its secondary to come through against a spry Golden Gopher offense. Minnesota is welcoming back one of the more effective quarterback-wide receiver tandems in Adam Weber (2,761 passing yards, 15 TD) and Eric Decker (1,074 receiving yards, 7 TD). The Gophers will also be returning their entire offensive line, which averages just over 319 pounds per lineman.
Last year, Minnesota improved its scoring defense by allowing 23.3 PPG…a marked improvement from the 36.7 PPG they gave up in 2007. The problem this year for the Golden Gophers is replacing their third defensive coordinator in as many years after Ted Roof took the DC job in Auburn. Kevin Cosgrove and Ronnie Lee will share the duties this season with a unit that is returning seven starters.
Kornegay figures that Cal will be a seven-point road “chalk” in the Gophers’ new digs, TCF Bank Stadium.
This is a weird spot for us to back the Golden Bears given their recent history of traveling out east. The Bears traveled to Tennessee and Maryland over the last two seasons as favorites. And they walked away from both games a loser. In fact, California is 2-2 SU in its last four non-conference road contests in September, but is 0-4 ATS.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
