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Coaching changes are becoming more and more commonplace in college football and this year there are eleven coaches among the 65 BCS conference teams that did not start last season as the head coach. Coincidentally there were 11 such changes in 2008 and 11 in 2007, meaning that every year there is turnover in almost 17 percent of the major conference jobs, at least in recent years.
By general logic one would expect that a first-year coach might struggle a bit in the opening game of the season, obviously the nerves and pressure will be high and his players have never gone through the tense game day situations with the staff. It has not proven to be the case on an against the spread measure as in 2007 new coaches from BCS schools went 3-3 ATS and in 2008 they went 4-4. It is difficult to grasp a full measure of the impact as many teams are playing non-FBS unlined games in those openers but by and large some teams have performed terrifically and others have struggled in game one.
It might make sense for the opening game of the second season under a head coach to go much smoother, having been through a season already and knowing what to expect. Obviously all coaches come from different backgrounds and some have previously had leading experience but the continuity and routine should be much more practiced and prepared in that second season. Oddly last season those second-year major conference coaches did poorly, going just 2-5 ATS in the seven lined games.
There are several notable coaching changes this season in the major conferences including three in the SEC but if the past two years are an indication, a new coach should not be reason enough to go against a team. If you are looking to analyze teams in terms of coaches next week there may be more support for going against a second year coach as overall optimism in the program may be higher than justified and excuses that passed in a rookie season will not cut it.
Some of the coaches in their second season this year and facing elevated expectations and intriguing opening week games are: Houston Nutt at Mississippi, Rick Neuheisel at UCLA, Rich Rodriguez at Michigan, Art Briles at Baylor, and Bo Pelini at Nebraska. There are others, but many are playing lower division teams in unlined games this week and will be more difficult to judge.
Expectations are sky-high for Ole Miss this season and after limited national interest the past few seasons this year’s Memphis/Mississippi showdown gets a national stage Sunday afternoon. Having a great turnaround season with low expectations is one thing but everyone will be ready for the Rebels this year. Although the Rebels grab what looks like one of the most favorable schedules in the SEC, it is still a SEC schedule and there will be very few easy outs.
Neuheisel has avoided controversy so far at UCLA but the expectations will be greatly elevated this season. Last year UCLA lost by 21 or more points six times so there is a lot of ground to be made up even if there is significant talent in place. The Bruins did not receive consistent QB play last year and turnovers have been a serious problem.
At Michigan there is no where to go but up after a school-worst season. Rodriguez has improved teams quickly in the past and he should have significantly more talent this season but leadership could be a question mark and it is hard to think of too many teams that have sustained success in a two-QB system let alone playing three as the Wolverines intend to at least in the early going this year. Already the Wolverines are embroiled in some controversy and instant improvement may be more difficult than some might expect.
Baylor is once again relevant and although the Bears were much more competitive last season they still won just four games. Briles has a great track record but this team still plays in an extremely tough division and has not made a bowl trip in 15 years. Baylor will need a lot of things to go its way in several games to even begin the discussion about being a bowl team.
Nebraska expects to return to the top of the Big XII North and bridge the gap with the South powers in the conference but that type of sentiment was thought of in the Bill Callahan era as well and that did not end up so well. Pelini had a solid season getting Nebraska to nine wins last year but there were still a few lopsided losses and the expectations are still for the Huskers to be a national title contender year-in and year-out.
All of those teams have a certain buzz about them this year but you should be weary of putting too much backing into teams that have not yet proven it on the field when the expectations are elevated. The general rule is that by year three a coach should start to see real progress and should start to be evaluated as the first two years will feature very few players actually recruited by the coach. A strong year one may have meant the previous coach underachieved and a poor year one may have meant the cupboard was bare. In this day and age many schools are not patient to ride out the rebuilding process and year two is becoming more and more critical as the expectations are growing.
