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Tulsa at Tulane
September 4, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards cashed his guaranteed winner last night by backing the 'under' (47) in South Carolina's 7-3 win at N.C. St. Don't miss Brian's pay-if-it-wins-only-selection for tonight's Tulane-Tulsa game!
O ur first edition of “Friday Night Lights” for the 2009 college football season takes us to one of the finest cities in the country – The Big Easy. That’s where Tulane will play host to Tulsa in a C-USA West showdown at the Superdome.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tulsa as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 65. As of early this morning, most books had the Golden Hurricane at either 13 ½ or 14 with the total at 64 ½. The Green Wave are plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).
Tulsa won its first eight games in 2008 and appeared to be a potential BCS Buster in the mold of Boise St., Utah and Hawaii in recent years. However, the Golden Hurricane lost back-to-back road games to both Arkansas and Houston, and then dropped a 27-24 decision to East Carolina in the C-USA championship game.
Nevertheless, Todd Graham’s squad finished the season with an 11-3 straight-up record and an 8-6 against-the-spread mark. Best of all, Tulsa capped the year with a 45-13 clubbing of Ball St. as a two-point favorite at the GMAC Bowl. Remember, the Cardinals went into that game with a 12-1 record.
The Golden Hurricane returns eight starters on defense and five on offense. The big loss is quarterback David Johnson, who threw for 4,059 yards and 46 touchdowns in 2008. His replacement remains a mystery, as Graham has yet to name a starter.
The candidates are junior Jacob Bower, who connected on 11-of-15 passes for 138 yards with one touchdown and one interception in limited playing time last year, and Texas transfer G.J. Kinne. Most reports are indicating that Kinne will get the starting nod and take his first collegiate snaps. He was redshirted at Texas in 2007 and sat out last year after transferring from Austin.
The Tulsa offense lost Johnson along with workhorse RB Tarrion Adams, who ran for more than 1,500 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Also, WR Brennan Marion is gone after tallying 1,112 receving yards and eight TD catches.
But a stable of backs appear poised to adequately replace Adams and let’s not forget about dynamic playmaker Damaris Johnson, who led C-USA in all-purpose yardage as a true freshman. Johnson, who had a team-high 53 receptions and 10 TD grabs in 2008, will add punt-return duties to his resume this year.
Tulane finished 2008 with a 2-10 SU record and a 5-7 ATS ledger. However, it says here that the eight-game losing streak to conclude the season was a bit misleading, at least in terms of the way we look at this year’s squad.
Keep in mind that since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Tulane’s athletics budget has been decimated. With that in mind, there’s no team in America that needs to stay healthy more than the Wave, yet they had the nation’s worst rash of injuries in ’08.
This fact wasn’t lost on Graham when he faced the media earlier this week. Graham said, “I've never seen anything quite like the injuries they faced last year. When I looked at the injury report last year, I was astounded. They lost almost 20 starters. It was unbelievable.”
Graham is referencing the next-to-last week of the regular season when Tulane came to Tulsa and took woodshed treatment. The Wave brought only 53 players on the trip and the Golden Hurricane took full advantage, cruising to a 56-7 victory as a 28 ½-point home favorite.
For a better assessment of Tulane's potential, look at how Bob Toledo’s team performed early in the season before injuries destroyed any hope of being competitive. When Tulane went to Bryant-Denny Stadium for its season opener at Alabama, all it did was out-yard the Crimson Tide, 318-172.
’Bama had to get touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked punt to get the victory, but Toledo’s troops easily hooked up their backers as 29 ½-point road underdogs. Lest we forget, that same Alabama squad was 12-0 and No. 1 in the nation before losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
In Week 3 after East Carolina had already pulled upsets against Va. Tech and West Va., the Pirates had to rally late in the fourth quarter to capture a 28-24 win at Tulane as 12 ½-point road favorites.
The Wave responded to the ECU loss by winning back-to-back games, but then the injury bug hit. One week after rushing for 255 yards in a 24-21 loss at UTEP, RB Andre Anderson was lost for the season. He had eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three straight games before going down. Also, leading WR Jeremy Williams went down a week prior to Anderson’s injury.
The Wave returns seven starters on offense and six on defense, but they will be without a pair of starters along the defensive line Friday night. (So basically, they have just four returning starters this week.) Senior DT Reggie Scott, an honorable mention C-USA selection the last two seasons, is suspended and junior DT Oscar Ponce de Leon is out with an injury.
Tulane sophomore QB Joe Kemp is poised to make his first career start after a broken collarbone limited his playing time in 2008. As a freshman, Kemp completed 26-of-46 (57%) passes for 344 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Tulane is 4-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog in Toledo’s first two seasons. The Wave is 3-3 ATS as a home ‘dog on Toledo’s watch. Meanwhile, Tulsa is a mediocre 4-7 ATS as a road favorite during Graham’s tenure. The Golden Hurricane is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit road ‘chalk’ under Graham.
ESPN will have the telecast Friday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--After Tuesday’s practice, Toledo told TheWaveReport.com, “It was really good. I was pleased. I wasn't very happy with yesterday and I met with the team leadership and they just talked to the guys and told me it was going to be better today, and it was. It was more focused, more attention to detail."
--Two weeks ago, more than two dozen Tulane players missed multiple practices with flu-like symptoms. However, all of the players were cleared and back at practice by the beginning of this week.
--Iowa RB Jewel Hampton is out for the year with a torn ACL. This is a huge blow to the Hawkeyes, who lost Shonn Greene a year early to the pros following his 20-TD campaign of ‘08. Hampton, who rushed for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC last year, was poised to take over the bulk of the rushing load from Greene.
--Florida LB Dustin Doe is suspended for the Charleston Southern game this Saturday.
--Oklahoma St. has lost two starters this week. TE Jamal Mosley left the team for "personal reasons" and LB Orie Lemon, who was the Cowboys' second-leading tackler in '08, was lost for the season after tearing his ACL at Monday's practice.
--Alabama WR Julio Jones and RB Mark Ingram have been cleared to play Saturday vs. Va. Tech. The status of both players had been unclear due to a fishing trip they took earlier this year in Orange Beach. Also, DE Brandon Deadrick returned to practice Thursday and has been cleared to play. Deadrick was shot in the arm during a robbery attempt Monday.
--Check out the Mean Green of North Texas, which went into Ball St. and captured a 20-10 win that paid money-line backers a plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).
--The 'under' went 4-1 in Thursday's five board games. I had the 'under' for South Carolina-North Carolina St. as my guaranteed winner.
--Boise State dominated Oregon in a 19-8 home win as a three-point favorite. The Broncos' defense didn't allow a first down until the third quarter. Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount punched Boise DE Byron Hout after the game and was suspended for the season by new head coach Chip Kelly earlier today. Chris Petersen's team won't play another team from a BCS conference the rest of the season. In 2010, Boise's non-conference game are vs. Toledo, at Wyoming, vs. Oregon St. and at Va. Tech in Landover, MY. In 2011, the Broncos play at Toledo, vs. Tulsa, vs. Utah and vs. Wyoming. In 2012, the non-con slate looks like this: vs. Bowling Green, at Oregon St. vs. BYU and at Utah. The series with BYU is for four consecutive years.
--Steve Spurrier is 19-1 in season openers during his 20 years as a head coach at Duke, Florida and South Carolina. The Gamecocks captured an ugly 7-3 win at N.C. St. as a four-point underdog. They cashed money-line tickets for a plus-170 payout. I like South Carolina's speed on defense and redshirt freshman DE Devin Taylor was extremely impressive in his collegiate debut, forcing a fumble (to set up USC's lone TD), blocking a punt and making six tackles. The 'Cocks get Georgia between the hedges next week. They won in Athens by a 16-12 count as 3 1/2-point road underdogs in 2007. Spurrier is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS in his three games coached at Sanford Stadium (one while with Florida and two with USC).
--My first thought when I saw the Bucs had fired Jeff Jagodzinski as offensive coordinator: The Boston College AD is smiling somewhere in Chestnut Hill.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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