The first thing I want to do is send out a big “thank you” to all of the people that participated in Week 1 of this year’s College Football Handicapping Challenge. Don’t worry if you didn’t get a chance to play the first Saturday of the contest. There are still great weekly prizes to be won from now until Nov. 28, 2009 by clicking here.
If the first weekend of action is any indicator for how the year is gong to be, then picking winners will be at a premium. Only six contestants were able to pick five winners in the first week of play. That is a huge drop off from the 49 participants that went perfect last year.
I was not one of the chosen few with an unblemished record. No, I was only able to pick one winner on the challenge last Saturday. Not the best start imaginable, but leaves plenty of room for me to improve this weekend.
There weren’t many options for me to sweat out the end result to start the year. Wake Forest kept shooting itself in the foot with interceptions versus Baylor. The Bobcats looked more like the Rockettes with all the punting they did against Connecticut. And I’m just glad I wasn’t the only one that drank the Wolf Pack Flavor-Aid against Notre Dame.
We’ve got plenty of chances to pick up the pace this weekend. Let’s go out and find some winners.
North Carolina (-5 ½) at Connecticut
The Tar Heels took no time in showing everyone how they would move the ball this season. North Carolina rushed for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns in its 40-6 win over the Citadel. That means we should see more of the same this week with Shaun Draughn (118 yards) and Ryan Houston (45 yards, two TDs).
Now let’s look at the Huskies for a second. They beat the Bobcats 23-16 last week as a 3 ½-point road favorite. That score is a tad skewed thanks to Ohio coming up with nine points in the final quarter. Those scores were predicated by a need to abandon the running game, which explains why Frank Solich’s team only had 61 yards on the ground.
I fully expect North Carolina to keep its ground game on target this week on the road. Also, the Heels have covered the spread in the last two meetings against Connecticut. There is no reason for me to think it won’t happen again.
Final Score: North Carolina 27, Connecticut 14
Army (-2 ½) vs. Duke
The Black Knights didn’t waste any time in showing that they knew how to run Rich Ellerson’s triple option attack. That was immediately apparent in Army’s 27-14 win over Eastern Michigan as a 3 ½-point road pup. The Cadets picked up 300 rushing yards on 49 plays against the Eagles.
Army shouldn’t have many problems going up against the Blue Devils, who just got embarrassed in a 24-16 loss to Richmond. The Spiders were able to hold a solid balance against Duke by racking up 157 yards passing and 125 yards rushing.
Forgive me if I don’t have confidence in the Blue Devils’ defense for this week.
Final Score: Army 17, Duke 10
Iowa State (+6 ½) vs. Iowa
I know that Northern Iowa is a good Football Championship Subdivision team. However, there is no reason that the Hawkeyes needed to block two straight field goal attempts in the final seconds to hold onto a 17-16 victory.
It’s no secret that the Cyclones aren’t exactly world beaters, but there are some trends that suggest that they are the right play in this intrastate showdown.
First thing that jumps out at me is that the road team has not won the last five head-to-head meetings. Will that trend continue this week? I doubt it. But the Hawkeyes haven’t covered the spread since the 2003 showdown against Iowa State. That trend will continue.
Final Score: Iowa 24, Iowa State 21
Houston (+15 ½) at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys passed their first test of the year in taking down Georgia to open up the 2009 season. That means we’ve got a perfect let down spot to fade Oklahoma State against the Cougars.
Houston’s offense is clicking after romping over Northwestern State 55-7 to start its campaign. Case Keenum lit up the Demons by himself with 359 yards and four touchdowns on 23 of 30 passes.
The Cougars have the wherewithal to hold tight with the ‘Pokes on Saturday in what will be a fun firefight.
Final Score: Oklahoma State 48, Houston 35
Georgia (-7 ½) vs. South Carolina
Joe Cox had a decent first outing as the Bulldogs’ new starting quarterback, completing 15 of 30 passes for 162 yards with a pick and a touchdown against Oklahoma State. Now he’ll get his first taste of SEC play as “the man” against the Gamecocks.
First thing I noticed about South Carolina in its 7-3 win over the Wolfpack is that don’t have the slightest resemblance to having an offense. Stephen Garcia was lucky to pick up 148 yards passing against North Carolina State on Sept. 3.
The current trend of this series has the road team winning four of the last five matchups. That doesn’t look like it won’t happen this time around with Georgia easily covering.
Final Score: Georgia 24, South Carolina 12
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
