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It was three years ago that then No. 1 Ohio State and then No. 2 Michigan played in one of the greatest games of their rivalry for a spot in the BCS Title Game. It was also three years ago that those same two squads helped cement the appearance that the Big Ten’s elite wasn’t qualifies another conference’s jock strap.
This Saturday marks a chance for those two programs to help bring the pride back to the league as they play host to some of the most talented clubs in college football. Will the Buckeyes avenge their embarrassing defeat to Southern California? Can Rich Rodriguez prove his doubters wrong with a Michigan win over the Fighting Irish in Ann Arbor?
Southern California at Ohio State – 8:00 p.m. EDT, ABC
I’m certain that nobody needs to be reminded of the 35-3 lambasting that the USC levied on Ohio State out in Los Angeles last season. Will the memories of that embarrassment serve as inspiration for the Bucks at the Horseshoe?
The betting shops certainly don’t think they’re going to exact some revenge after listing the Trojans as seven-point road favorites with a total of 44 ½.
Gamblers aren’t buying into the Buckeyes as far as sportsbook.com are concerned with 89 percent of the public’s money is on Southern Cal to cover the spread. However, 83 percent of the cash on money line wagers are taking Ohio State to win outright for a plus-240 return (risk $100 to win $240).
You can’t fault the bettors that are taking the Trojans to cover after what happened in Columbus last weekend.
Ohio State was a 22-point home “chalk” against the Midshipmen. And everything was going according to plan for the Bucks as they took a 20-7 lead into halftime. Navy took advantage of the lackadaisical play that OSU employed to come within a two-point conversion late in the game. Brian Rolle intercepted Ricky Dobbs’s pass for a two-pointer to clinch a 31-27 victory.
Despite the scare, the Bucks did have some quality performances last Saturday. Terrelle Pryor completed 14 of 21 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed six times for 30 yards and another score. Daniel “Boom” Herron also ran for 72 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
Ohio State’s defense knew that it was going to have its hands full with the triple-option. And sure enough, the Middies rushed 44 times for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Luckily for the Bucks, USC runs a pro style attack that they’re much more familiar in defending. What will be interesting is how the Trojans handle coming into a hostile environment with a rookie under center.
Matt Barkley is the much ballyhooed true freshman quarterback running the show for Southern California this year. And he’s looked as good as advertised by connecting on 15 of his 19 pass attempts for 233 yards and one touchdown. Joe McKnight also shined as he compiled 145 yards and two scores on 14 carries.
While Barkley has shown he can be efficient on the field, he’s never seen a crowd like what he’ll see at Ohio Stadium on Saturday night. Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, believes he factors into the line, but not to read much into that. “We think Barkley is being considered here because the line isn't more that a touchdown - this still is USC, one of the Top 3 favorites to win the national championship. When the line first opened at -7, we initially took action on OSU, but since have seen only USC action.”
Despite last year’s blowout, Ohio State is still 13-6 straight up and 10-8-1 against the spread in its last 19 games against Pac-10 schools.
Southern Cal has owned Big Ten programs as of late, posting a 17-8 SU and ATS mark against them recently.
The Buckeyes haven’t been listed as home ‘dogs often, just nine times since 1988. They are 3-5-1 SU and 5-4 ATS in those situations.
Pete Carroll’s squad has been great on the road against non-conference opponents, as evidenced by a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 2001.
Notre Dame at Michigan – 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC
The Irish and Wolverines have fallen on hard times over the past few years, but this year’s battle has a little more weight on it thanks to how last week played out.
Michigan had a horrible 3-9 record in Rich Rodriguez’s first season with the team last year. But that looked like a distant memory for the Wolverines after dumping Western Michigan as a 14-point home favorite, 31-7.
Tate Forcier appears to be the read deal for the Maize and Blue as a true freshman. The young gun slinger completed 13 of his 20 passes for 179 and three touchdowns. Michigan also got a solid outing from Denard Robinson by gaining 74 rushing yards and a score on 11 carries.
What could be a problem for the Wolverines is the fact that they gave up 301 yards to the Broncos. However, 263 yards of that came through the air. And 293 yards of that total came after Michigan was up 31-0.
Regardless of how they gave up the yards, Michigan will have its work cut out this Saturday against the Fighting Irish.
Jimmy Clausen was nearly flawless in Notre Dame’s 35-0 victory as a 14 ½-point home “chalk” against the Wolf Pack. Beano Cook’s boy toy completed 15 of his 18 passes for 315 yards and four touchdowns.
The Irish were in the same boat as Michigan defensively. They gave up 307 yards altogether, but Nevada split it up evenly (153 rushing, 154 passing). 188 of that total was amassed after Notre Dame held a 28-0 lead late in the first half.
Most sportsbooks have installed Notre Dame as a three-point road favorite with a total of 48.
It’s rare to see Michigan as a home pup; it’s happened just five times this decade. But gamblers should know that the Wolverines are 2-3 SU and ATS in those matches. The ‘over’ is 3-2 in that stretch. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has covered the spread the last six times they were listed as a road favorite.
The Fighting Irish is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings with Michigan. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the past five games at Michigan Stadium.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
